If it does work flat betting

[Steve]

If you go by the maths alone there's no need for a simulation; just calculate that all systems will lose at the rate given by the house edge.

My point is the same approaches are being repackaged, then tested as if they were something new.

Its like a system based on reds, vs based on blacks. With proper understanding, you know it's the same damn thing. Only in the case of most systems, players arent understanding why their systems are the same repackaged nonsense.

When the working principles are new, testing is worthwhile. Why re-tesy the same thing?

And why test a complete system instead of the working principe thats supposed to change the odds.

If you don't change the odds, what have you changed?

[jekhb76]

My point is the same approaches are being repackaged, then tested as if they were something new.

Its like a system based on reds, vs based on blacks. With proper understanding, you know it's the same damn thing. Only in the case of most systems, players arent understanding why their systems are the same repackaged nonsense.

When the working principles are new, testing is worthwhile. Why re-tesy the same thing?

And why test a complete system instead of the working principe thats supposed to change the odds.

If you don't change the odds, what have you changed?

You are Right Steve, can't disagree.
But as Long something is working on More Occasions then not, then what's the problem? I'm not playing at a casino, to change the Odds, i'm there to make profit in the atleast Mount of Time.
Last Evening, i only was around one hour at the casino, drank one coffee and within one hour i went Home again, but with 132 euro profit. Wy should i stay longer? To look at the girls, or for Just having fun to hang around? I'm there for business, not for pleasure. And as soon as i Have reached my daily goal, i go home No matter how fun it is to hang around 

[psimoes]

You are Right Steve, can't disagree.
But as Long something is working on More Occasions then not, then what's the problem? I'm not playing at a casino, to change the Odds, i'm there to make profit in the atleast Mount of Time.
Last Evening, i only was around one hour at the casino, drank one coffee and within one hour i went Home again, but with 132 euro profit. Wy should i stay longer? To look at the girls, or for Just having fun to hang around? I'm there for business, not for pleasure. And as soon as i Have reached my daily goal, i go home No matter how fun it is to hang around 

You miss the point. If you don't change the odds (to your favour) you will not walk away with profit indefinitely.

[Steve]

But as Long something is working on More Occasions then not, then what's the problem?

If its working, keep doing it. But be realistic. Almost every system does well for a while. You think its all peachy. Then it crashes hard. The streak of luck and successful progression ends.

Do you create a new system with the same flaws, and same fate...... or, use a new approach that can give sustained winnings?

I'm not playing at a casino, to change the Odds, i'm there to make profit in the atleast Mount of Time.

Then you are gambling. And it doesn't matter what system you use. Because the odds and payout are the same. What would make one system win and another lose? The spins of the day being suitable for one system but not the other.  Aka luck.

Wy should i stay longer? To look at the girls

Yes but window shopping gets old

I'm there for business, not for pleasure.

Business is random bets with the casino having the definite edge?

That's all systems are. No matter how you package them.

And as soon as i Have reached my daily goal, i go home No matter how fun it is to hang around

If a system works, the more you play, the more you profit. Leaving while you're up is smart for a gambler. But it has little place in business. It is implying you can keep doing it, but you cant with a losing system. It eventually catches you.

Why ignore approaches that can give an edge? Even just a small edge. You know its really not complicated. Often its simpler than system bet selection.

The only downside is if its too simple, you can go from hitting to avoiding the right sector. Then the odds are even worse than random.

I've taught players while ap can be super complicated with say an 8% edge, its usually better to use a simpler approach for say a 4% edge.  Edge is not everything.  It needs to be easy and practical enough. Basic vb and dealer signature is a good start.

[jekhb76]

If a system works, the more you play, the more you profit. Leaving while you're up is smart for a gambler.
[/quote]
Yes, i'm a gambler, but with a businessind and a goal.
Well my business does quite well if you've won over 15.000 euro in the past 9 months (and that for a gambler) 

[Ricky]

ve taught players while ap can be super complicated with say an 8% edge, it

Hi Steve,
I agree with your approach to the game of roulette. If you are observant enough in a live dealer BM casino environment to track the ball rotation and wheel spin you will identify a footprint in many dealer spins. You are exploiting a human weakness in the game which cannot be replicated in RNG or even in Online Casino environment where you are not close enough to the action to determine if the spins are fair and legal.

Besides that advantage what is your approach to the other aspects of gambling, numbers covered per bet, bet size, progression vs flatbetting/parlaying winnings, and time spent? When do you decide you have met your goal for the session and will stop to exploit the wheel another day? Do you follow the approach people like Brett Morton take to planning your gambling session including having Golden Tops/Jackpot targets?

Cheers,
Ricky

[Ricky]

I've taught players while ap can be super complicated with say an 8% edge, its usually better to use a simpler approach for say a 4% edge.  Edge is not everything.  It needs to be easy and practical enough. Basic vb and dealer signature is a good start.

Hi Steve,
Can you briefly explain the difference between a system approach to gambling and having an edge eg in roulette? Is there any system you know that can give you an edge against the house? If so what would that system look like in terms of bet selection, progression etc?

Based on you definition of advantage play, how would you translate that to a game like Baccarat which is meant to be the most even game with the lowest house edge played in its purest form?

I am currently playing baccarat using a pattern attack method and seem to be having high success. But would you classify this as being lucky or taking advantage of a rare event? So if you identify a sequence of patterns in a game that rarely goes beyond 4 repeats, and you take advantage of this observation and start betting against it each time you see the pattern forming say 3 times, would you classify a long winning streak of 89 wins and only 3 losses over a period of 2 months being lucky or some sort of edge?

One could argue that we do not know what that next hand is going to be so we could be extremely lucky to have gambled on the hands which do not repeat a pattern 4 times. But if I consistent take this approach and do not deviate for 11 years straight and make 1 million dollars doing so would I be an Advantage Player or just one extremely lucky gambler?

Cheers,
Ricky

[Joe]

Ok, I'll try to do it tomorrow sometime...

Didn't have time yesterday, but it will be done today.

[Joe]

My point is the same approaches are being repackaged, then tested as if they were something new.

Its like a system based on reds, vs based on blacks. With proper understanding, you know it's the same damn thing. Only in the case of most systems, players arent understanding why their systems are the same repackaged nonsense.

When the working principles are new, testing is worthwhile. Why re-tesy the same thing?

What new principles would you suggest? For AP there is physics and for systems there are progressions, hot numbers, cold numbers, patterns, etc none of which can be proved to be effective mathematically, but as JEK says if something seems to be working well then why not test it to destruction using a computer? It's a helluva lot easier than doing it manually.

[Joe]

Ok done. I have attached the program which you run from a windows command prompt. You have to enter the name of the program "jeksystem.exe" followed by the number of cycles. e.g. to process 100 cycles you would type

Code Select Expand

jeksystem.exe 100


followed by the ENTER key. The program outputs 2 files, one with detail (small sample shown below) called "jeksystem.txt" and another one called "data.csv". The data file just lists the bankroll balance and can be opened in Excel for plotting.

If you run a lot of cycles (like 10,000 or more) it could take some time so be patient. The number at the bottom of the file is the "Yield" which is the ratio of the profit/loss to total money wagered. It's the same as the expectation, so in theory if you run a lot of cycles (1000 or more) it should equal the house edge of -2.7% or thereabouts.

GET FIRST 35 SPINS
#20
# 6
#31
#15
# 3
#11
#17
#10
#29
#30
#31
#36
# 5
#28
#14
#34
#10
#16
#31
#25
# 2
#22
#28
#15
#36
#28
#16
#11
# 9
#21
# 3
#14
# 0
#15
#31

START BETTING ON THE #S WHICH HAVE HIT ONCE


**** CYCLE      1


24  #s bet : {0,2,5,6,9,17,20,21,22,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       987

18  #s bet : {0,2,5,6,9,17,20,21,22,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       974

28  #s bet : {0,2,5,6,9,17,20,21,22,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       961

12  #s bet : {0,2,5,6,9,17,20,21,22,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       948

9  #s bet : {0,2,5,6,9,17,20,21,22,25,29,30,34}
W  Bank :       971

13  #s bet : {0,2,5,6,17,20,21,22,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       959

7  #s bet : {0,2,5,6,17,20,21,22,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       947

1  #s bet : {0,2,5,6,17,20,21,22,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       935

8  #s bet : {0,2,5,6,17,20,21,22,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       923

24  #s bet : {0,2,5,6,17,20,21,22,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       911

28  #s bet : {0,2,5,6,17,20,21,22,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       899

22  #s bet : {0,2,5,6,17,20,21,22,25,29,30,34}
W  Bank :       923

36  #s bet : {0,2,5,6,17,20,21,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       912

26  #s bet : {0,2,5,6,17,20,21,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       901

2  #s bet : {0,2,5,6,17,20,21,25,29,30,34}
W  Bank :       926

24  #s bet : {0,5,6,17,20,21,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       916

20  #s bet : {0,5,6,17,20,21,25,29,30,34}
W  Bank :       942

24  #s bet : {0,5,6,17,21,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       933

1  #s bet : {0,5,6,17,21,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       924

1  #s bet : {0,5,6,17,21,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       915

11  #s bet : {0,5,6,17,21,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       906

19  #s bet : {0,5,6,17,21,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       897

26  #s bet : {0,5,6,17,21,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       888

3  #s bet : {0,5,6,17,21,25,29,30,34}
L  Bank :       879

29  #s bet : {0,5,6,17,21,25,29,30,34}
W  Bank :       906

6  #s bet : {0,5,6,17,21,25,30,34}
W  Bank :       934

19  #s bet : {0,5,17,21,25,30,34}
L  Bank :       927

3  #s bet : {0,5,17,21,25,30,34}
L  Bank :       920

22  #s bet : {0,5,17,21,25,30,34}
L  Bank :       913

28  #s bet : {0,5,17,21,25,30,34}
L  Bank :       906

34  #s bet : {0,5,17,21,25,30,34}
W  Bank :       935

21  #s bet : {0,5,17,21,25,30}
W  Bank :       965

2  #s bet : {0,5,17,25,30}
L  Bank :       960

18  #s bet : {0,5,17,25,30}
L  Bank :       955

34  #s bet : {0,5,17,25,30}
L  Bank :       950

**** CYCLE      2


15  #s bet : {0,5,17,25,30,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,20,21,29,36}
L  Bank :       934

21  #s bet : {0,5,17,25,30,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,20,21,29,36}
W  Bank :       954

33  #s bet : {0,5,17,25,30,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,20,29,36}
L  Bank :       939

27  #s bet : {0,5,17,25,30,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,20,29,36}
L  Bank :       924

3  #s bet : {0,5,17,25,30,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,20,29,36}
L  Bank :       909

8  #s bet : {0,5,17,25,30,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,20,29,36}
W  Bank :       930

3  #s bet : {0,5,17,25,30,6,7,9,11,12,13,20,29,36}
L  Bank :       916

13  #s bet : {0,5,17,25,30,6,7,9,11,12,13,20,29,36}
W  Bank :       938

32  #s bet : {0,5,17,25,30,6,7,9,11,12,20,29,36}
L  Bank :       925

0  #s bet : {0,5,17,25,30,6,7,9,11,12,20,29,36}
W  Bank :       948

4  #s bet : {5,17,25,30,6,7,9,11,12,20,29,36}
L  Bank :       936

21  #s bet : {5,17,25,30,6,7,9,11,12,20,29,36}
L  Bank :       924

8  #s bet : {5,17,25,30,6,7,9,11,12,20,29,36}
L  Bank :       912

36  #s bet : {5,17,25,30,6,7,9,11,12,20,29,36}
W  Bank :       936

26  #s bet : {5,17,25,30,6,7,9,11,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       925

0  #s bet : {5,17,25,30,6,7,9,11,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       914

18  #s bet : {5,17,25,30,6,7,9,11,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       903

30  #s bet : {5,17,25,30,6,7,9,11,12,20,29}
W  Bank :       928

3  #s bet : {5,17,25,6,7,9,11,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       918

31  #s bet : {5,17,25,6,7,9,11,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       908

21  #s bet : {5,17,25,6,7,9,11,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       898

5  #s bet : {5,17,25,6,7,9,11,12,20,29}
W  Bank :       924

36  #s bet : {17,25,6,7,9,11,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       915

17  #s bet : {17,25,6,7,9,11,12,20,29}
W  Bank :       942

27  #s bet : {25,6,7,9,11,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       934

5  #s bet : {25,6,7,9,11,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       926

11  #s bet : {25,6,7,9,11,12,20,29}
W  Bank :       954

27  #s bet : {25,6,7,9,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       947

18  #s bet : {25,6,7,9,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       940

4  #s bet : {25,6,7,9,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       933

10  #s bet : {25,6,7,9,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       926

5  #s bet : {25,6,7,9,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       919

18  #s bet : {25,6,7,9,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       912

8  #s bet : {25,6,7,9,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       905

35  #s bet : {25,6,7,9,12,20,29}
L  Bank :       898

**** CYCLE      3


12  #s bet : {25,6,7,9,12,20,29,10,11,13,15,17,26,30,31,32,33,35}
W  Bank :       916

7  #s bet : {25,6,7,9,20,29,10,11,13,15,17,26,30,31,32,33,35}
W  Bank :       935

30  #s bet : {25,6,9,20,29,10,11,13,15,17,26,30,31,32,33,35}
W  Bank :       955

26  #s bet : {25,6,9,20,29,10,11,13,15,17,26,31,32,33,35}
W  Bank :       976

35  #s bet : {25,6,9,20,29,10,11,13,15,17,31,32,33,35}
W  Bank :       998

31  #s bet : {25,6,9,20,29,10,11,13,15,17,31,32,33}
W  Bank :      1021

NEW HIGH BALANCE - RESTART

**** CYCLE      4


4  #s bet : {7,10,11,12,13,17,32}
L  Bank :      1014

0  #s bet : {7,10,11,12,13,17,32}
L  Bank :      1007

12  #s bet : {7,10,11,12,13,17,32}
W  Bank :      1036

NEW HIGH BALANCE - RESTART

**** CYCLE      5


10  #s bet : {3,7,10,11,17}
W  Bank :      1067

NEW HIGH BALANCE - RESTART

[jekhb76]

Ok done. I have attached the program which you run from a windows command prompt. You have to enter the name of the program "jeksystem.exe" followed by the number of cycles. e.g. to process 100 cycles you would type

Code Select Expand

jeksystem.exe 100


followed by the ENTER key. The program outputs 2 files, one with detail (small sample shown below) called "jeksystem.txt" and another one called "data.csv". The data file just lists the bankroll balance and can be opened in Excel for plotting.

If you run a lot of cycles (like 10,000 or more) it could take some time so be patient. The number at the bottom of the file is the "Yield" which is the ratio of the profit/loss to total money wagered. It's the same as the expectation, so in theory if you run a lot of cycles (1000 or more) it should equal the house edge of -2.7% or thereabouts.

Thank you very much for all the time and effort you put into this, i really appreciate it. 
Will run tests a.s.a.p.
Thanks again. 

[jekhb76]

What new principles would you suggest? For AP there is physics and for systems there are progressions, hot numbers, cold numbers, patterns, etc none of which can be proved to be effective mathematically, but as JEK says if something seems to be working well then why not test it to destruction using a computer? It's a helluva lot easier than doing it manually.

will let you know a.s.a.p. thnx 

[denzie]

I played around bit simular in the past. Playing the 1s or 2s in second cycle.

Basicly i wait till first 1s or 2s shows and then start betting.

Looked first 10 spins in second cycle...made my decision what to play bases on what comes

[jekhb76]

I played around bit simular in the past. Playing the 1s or 2s in second cycle.

Basicly i wait till first 1s or 2s shows and then start betting.

Looked first 10 spins in second cycle...made my decision what to play bases on what comes

Yes it can work very Nice. But not endlesly. But could profit from it Easy. I did so in the last nine months only a slice Different Version. But it is indeed best to kust follw the wheel.

[boyd30]

After tests I done from RX and live spins I don't think progression is good. Been down to 5 units and still not in plus. It can really make a bíg hole in your pocket. Either you've been very  lucky jekhb76 or managed to work it out by a different money management.