Building The Optimum System.

[Kattila]

Maybe progression only can t , but good Lw strategy + progression yes can,
many times.
Why not avoid most of the times the long L runs ?
I did beat many bad sessions (not all of course) using LWs stratg. and was bad
bet selection, imagine with good bet selection and possitive progression ,  rise when
win and down when lose.   Bet on every spin is a bad idea...



W trigger
L1
L2 stop
L virtual
W tr
L1
W real
L virtual all...
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
W tr
W real
W tr
W real
W tr

[Kattila]

See any chart ...there are always ups and downs , also few *patterns*
V, W, M....no chart without this ones.
W translated on LW ......example ...LLLWWWLLLWWW...or LLLWWLLLWW..or....
M translated on LW ....ex.....WWWLLWWLLL  ...or....WWLLLWWWLL..or....
Yes i know..we need few Ws in row or  WLW  or  WLLWLW  or WLLLWW..etc...

This is the Lw strategy seen on chart (Ign 1/ please zoom) when win start to bet , when lose stop bet.
I don t say it helps always, but help so many times, really.  So are enter and exit point totally useless?
I don t think so....at least avoid sometimes bad runs (Ls)or very bad runs.

[gp61]

Quote (selected)
Quote from: Scarface on May 04, 04:09 PM 2018
There really seems like there should be a mathematical model for problems similar to this.  If someone can come up with a model on 60/200 that works no matter where the 60 wins fall, I would call that a Holy Grail

Put mathematics aside ... can you tell me how should the progression comes ahead with this output :


W
L
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
W
W
W
W

W=60
L=140

Noway!

The attached image shows a betting calculation based upon previous spin result. The problem is related to minimum and maximum bet allowed, bet rounding and return rate. In the example you posted, return rate is positive but it decreases by increasing total number of spins. In other words 8 wins vs 18 losses isn't the same than 60 wins vs 140 losses. The winning rate percentage is the same but  the return rate decreases dramatically.

[Scarface]

Put mathematics aside ... can you tell me how should the progression comes ahead with this output :


W
L
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
W
W
W
W

W=60
L=140

Noway!

I know over 200 spins the worse ratio I could get is a 1/3 hit rate for an even bet.  With the example you gave it would be quite easy.  I would flatbet until I get a win...once I get a win, if the bitrate is below that expectation then I raise the bet until the next win...always raising after a win.  Your example with a string of losses followed by a short string of wins would be easy to progress without the progression getting to high.

The type of win/loss ratio I worry about would be more like
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
W
L

But to answer your question on the example you gave...if I expect a string of wins after such a long string of losses I could parlay my winnings...so I could flatbet 1 unit the whole time, and if I won parlay...in your example with 5 wins at the end would turn 1 unit to 32, and would win this

[Scarface]

There are two ways even bets can fall.  It can be choppy like WLLLLWLLWLLLW.  Or it can be long strings like this...WLLLLLLLLWWLLLLLLWWWW.

The choppy sessions could be overcome easily with a simple progression like 1-1-2-4.

The long string sessions could be easily won with parlaying winnings.

I'm thinking it may take a little of both to overcome the session from hell like 60/200.  Even though this is a once in a 10 million worse case event...if it can be overcome Roulette can be beaten

Let's say you have a win ratio of only 20 in the first 100 spins.  Well, you can expect a win ratio of at least 40 in the next 100 (for the 60 total).  What does that tell you?  To me, with 40 out of 100 spins, I should expect some of those wins to be back to back...so parlay would work great for this

[daveylibra]

If we write:    bet = target x ( expected wins left / spins left )
1st bet 1unit
2nd bet (if lose), target =1unit, and we start to use the formula to recover the target.
This formula would give us our 1unit back eventually, but we would have to get to the end of all our spins, eg 200 in the 60/200 example.
One more thought, I know past spins mean nothing and all that, but if we wait for 4 blacks or whatever, then we are looking at 60/195, and use that in our equation. We would, I guess, round up to the nearest integer, or 0.5? Which would maybe give us our target before the 195.
So much to think about...

[daveylibra]

Sorry, I mean 4 blacks would bring us down to 196...  you get the idea.

[ozon]

Kattila is right
I used to run simulations of a simple bet selection on black but I just used stop after 2 losses and virtual win
The sessions lasted for a  thousands spins, and the variance was as if less than  random selection.
I think I even played short sessions with hitnrun and this flat bet with good results.
Adding to this well-developed positive progression could result in something really interesting.

[evs]

DAVEYLIBRA you say : " I know past spins mean nothing".Why? what case?

[jekhb76]

DAVEYLIBRA you say : " I know past spins mean nothing".Why? what case?

Once you sit down at the Table present and future spins do matter.

[jekhb76]

Good morning from An already Hot Holland 

Was Just thinking.

Why not bet this way?

1. Spin until you Have your First repeater.
2. Add every (2) repeats until one of those got hit and become a (3).
3. Once a (2) becomes a (3) we get rid of All the (2s) and continue with only the (3s) and add them as they come until one of them becomes a (4) etc etc.
5. The further you get, the lesser numbers you need to play.

The only problem is the progression.
I think this can work but it needs a Special progression that would cover the losses and bring us to a new High in a betselection or two?
Here Comes math around the corner.
We need to calculatie what to bet next and how High.
Remember that Turbo said, you can play this All day every day. So it's got to be a simple staking plan of some sort.

Just thinking.
Have a Nice day.

[jekhb76]

Just testing:

Maybe 1 unit on All 2s when they come.
As soon as a 2 became a 3 we stop betting on All the 2s and put 2 unit on the 3 and do this for every 3 that comes.
When a 3 becomes a 4 we stop betting All the 3s and play only the 4 with 4 units on it and every 4 there after.
After a 4 becomes a 5 we stop betting All 4s and place 8 units on the 5 and All 5s there after. When a 5 becomes a 6 we stop betting on All 5s and continue on the 6 with 16 units on it and 6s after that. Ones a 6 becomes a 7 we stop betting on all 6s and play the 7s with 32 units and All 7s after that.
When a 7 becomes a 8 we stop again and play only the 8 with 64 units on it and All 8s after that.

There must be some Point during these 150-200 spins that er Have reached at least 1 profit Point?
As soon. As we have our First profit we start over by collecting All the 2s again.

Any thought? TG or Priyanka?
If i remember corectly, it was Priyanka Who had tested this for More then 1M spins and didn't lose with it. Further more i thought also she had a excel sheet for this, what to bet and when to bet?

[Madi]

When betting on only 4s a number may hit from 1s and come to 4s hitting 3 times. U gonna miss that miss 100 unit of profit.

[jekhb76]

When betting on only 4s a number may hit from 1s and come to 4s hitting 3 times. U gonna miss that miss 100 unit of profit.

Yes i'm aware of that. But as Long as i can Make a profit during a session, it doesn't matter what i Have lost on other numbers but only profit on one of Mine is what i'm after. We can't bet on All numbers. And like Turbo said, the list with numbers to bet is getting smaller and smaller as you progress. That got my intention. And this way we are playing the Hot numbers All the Time.

[jekhb76]

A session ends as soon as we are in profit. And start from scratch again.