To KTF, Or not

[nottophammer]

So where do i start?

Red a lost game; the green it did not lose "nor"win insufficient data.


We see it does lose. Remember these are individual games from Jackpot 247.com; 1 game a day, usually around 70 spins
You can see i'm over a month behind, due to the challange of Repeats, courtesy of TG.

[6th-sense]

Think everyone is in turbo mode at the moment...ktf it is for a change .

[nottophammer]

Now, how can we help in deciding whether to KTF; just betting the non-hit.
You need some info.



Here we see 40 spins broke into 4 sets.
What you're interested in is spins 11-40. These are Mortagons averages. 3 different streams but so close to each other, i didn't post last 200 as seems eyes are closed to this.

[nottophammer]

Think everyone is in turbo mode at the moment...ktf it is for a change .

Yes i've left keeping up with KTF data for repeats and as posted in MPR i was going along nicely untill the reset.

[nottophammer]

There's nothing hidden in KTF
You just bet from spin 11 betting the remaining non-hit, with +1/-1; stop when you have your goal or your BR is getting hit.
The only tracker i use is pen and paper.
But to me you'd be better to use ROTT. What is ROTT, it's Riddle Of The Trot, it's posted somewhere, you need the above info thou.

[nottophammer]

now i'm back to the challange of repeats.
If it keeps going, i might give some riddles 

[The General]

You've got all of these little tiny games that still add up to a grand total of insignificance.  Why can't you run 50k to 100k trials at a time?



Currently you have no clue as to what your max draw downs will be and no clue as to whether or not you have an edge.  You just have a curve fit (likely unintentional as I've said before) mess on your hands.  Since you don't trust anyone with more experience than you, then at least get the thing coded so you can test a significant number of spins. 

By the way, If you look back in the archives, you'll find that Kon Fu Sed did test it (similar version) and ran it through several 100k spins.

Good luck.

[nottophammer]

you use that pic so much, do you have to pay royalties.

I said it before and i'll say it again I DON'T care about a million spins, so what if it tanks at some points, you see in the other thread betting for repeat won only needed to stop and reset, like Winkel in GUT, win the units and jump/reset,

Have you got it in that thick
of a brain

[The General]

I said it before and i'll say it again I DON'T care about a million spins, so what if it tanks at some points, you see in the other thread betting for repeat won only needed to stop and reset, like Winkel in GUT, win the units and jump/reset,

Ok, then why don't you just test the system for only ONE spin?   

[Steve]

If everyone just played ONE spin, casinos would be bankrupt.

[The General]

"He truly wants us to learn, but sadly many don't, look past 1 spin and are not willing to put their believe aside, to look at the game in a Different way.

Evidently one spin may not be enough, but according to others 12 spins is enough??? 
Go figure!

I think I'm going to create a thread that explains the logic of the system junkies. 

[Ricky]

Evidently one spin may not be enough, but according to others 12 spins is enough??? 
Go figure!

I think I'm going to create a thread that explains the logic of the system junkies.

OK, I am going to be honest here, no selective data. But 4175 spins of RX simulation (random number) using Repeats with a 4 Cycle 37 spin 1-2-4 progression. So I track the first 37 spins and collect all repeats that have not appeared for 3 times. I then select from these repeats 1 number to bet 37 times using the first step of a 3 step progression. If it loses the 37 spins it goes to the next cycle with the new top repeat betting 2 units per spin. Process is repeated until it gets to the 4th Cycle with 4U bet per spin.
To determine the Single Repeat from my pool of repeats I use the following RX formula based on StdDev
Calculate StdDev of record "TR:Numbers" layout to Record "TR:StdDev Number" Data
The Spin window used is 148 which represents the number of spins in four 37 spin cycles (4x37)
The formula will take the list of repeats from the last 37 spins and identify the repeat that has the highest StdDev from the Mean number of repeats for the 148 spin cycle.

Anyway, using the above mentioned progression 1-2-4 you can see that initially the method was working as long as you get one hit per 37 spins of the chosen repeat in 4 cycles. Where the method breaks down is when you get the inevitable 3 losses of 37 spins in a row and you need to reset the betting to 1 unit. This then gets even worse when you get a string of misses as has appeared towards the end of the 4175 spins.



So now we need to identify a progression strategy that will avoid the "death spiral". Flat betting is one solution to be able to withstand the steep losses during times of repeats not showing when expected. Positive Progression is another option to increase bets when bankroll increases accordingly. And reduce bets when in losing streak.

Any ideas on progression and strategy welcome.

Cheers,
Ricky

[nottophammer]

Make graphics so long are not necessary, you will never play 4000 balls, the graphics have to win in playable short sections ...

Spot on 60 spins is plenty. If you can't win in 60 spins, give up

[Bigbroben]

Notto,

if I remember well, it's +50u goal and -400u stop loss?

What % of all runs do make it to 50u and +?
Thanks,

[nottophammer]

Notto,

if I remember well, it's +50u goal and -400u stop loss?

What % of all runs do make it to 50u and +?
Thanks,

BBB good question, no idea