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Started by ego, Jun 02, 04:22 AM 2018

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ignatus

Quote from: ego on Jun 04, 10:59 AM 2018For the next 75 attempts, you have a very high probability that number 21 will hit again.

Thanks Ego for a very interesting idea, :) I've tried this with, a single number hit 2 times (during the last 10 spins)

And the progression is 24*3= 72 Spins

1 number progression (myway)

1u * 24 spins
2u * 24 spins
4u * 24 spins
STOP

(And as you can see in the chart i lost the progression once, but it did easily recover). (25u bet)
If you like to donate link::[url="//paypal.me/ignatus1"]//paypal.me/ignatus1[/url]

"Focus on predicting wheel sectors where the ball is expected to land" ~Steve

vladir

Quote from: ignatus on Jun 04, 11:28 AM 2018
Thanks Ego for a very interesting idea, :) I've tried this with, a single number hit 2 times (during the last 10 spins)

And the progression is 24*3= 72 Spins

1 number progression (myway)

1u * 24 spins
2u * 24 spins
4u * 24 spins
STOP

(And as you can see in the chart i lost the progression once, but it did easily recover). (25u bet)

Ignatus, this is different from what ego explained. It seems you are just betting a single number with progression, withouth using parachute.
"In God we trust; all others must bring data", W. Edwards Deming

jekhb76

The way i would play this to make optimale use of the parachute and that a 3 hit single number in 25 spins has a 90%+ change to hit is to reset the parachute, everytime a hit Comes on our parachute before our Target number would hit.
That way we maximize our profits maybe above 100 units a sessions.
So when our parachute hits on a Street, we take that win and continue from the start with the ec again. So everytime we win, we restart our parachute until out Target number hits. This not only buys us spin Time, bit raises also our profits if we are Lucky enough. Just a thought though. :thumbsup:

jekhb76

The only problem i See is the payout!
You can Have 70 spins played for example and only be paid 3 units.
That is a Long sit at the casino Table for a Small payout.

ego

Quote from: jekhb76 on Jun 04, 12:48 PM 2018
The way i would play this to make optimale use of the parachute and that a 3 hit single number in 25 spins has a 90%+ change to hit is to reset the parachute, everytime a hit Comes on our parachute before our Target number would hit.
That way we maximize our profits maybe above 100 units a sessions.
So when our parachute hits on a Street, we take that win and continue from the start with the ec again. So everytime we win, we restart our parachute until out Target number hits. This not only buys us spin Time, bit raises also our profits if we are Lucky enough. Just a thought though. :thumbsup:

The problem is that you missing out on the lottery probability where the final target number has to fail at the exact same moment as the parachute.
I would not change the rules for that reason.

Quote from: jekhb76 on Jun 04, 12:54 PM 2018
The only problem i See is the payout!
You can Have 70 spins played for example and only be paid 3 units.
That is a Long sit at the casino Table for a Small payout.

Yes exactly, the idea is winning 365 days, one year and get a better return on investment than bank interest or stocks.
I would say one morning session, 30 minutes. One afternoon session takes 30 minutes. One evening session takes 30 minutes.
Sometimes you play all three during a day and sometimes you only play one or two sessions.

Now when you won 30% of the cost or 50% of the cost you play with casino money, that way you can not lose back the money and keep profits no matter what happens for the rest of the 365 days. Maybe you reach this goal after 100 sessions.

Cheers
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

jekhb76

What about this?

Even chance: 2 spins
Dozen/Column: 3 spins
Double-street: 6 spins
Quad/Corner: 9 spins
Street: 12 spins
Split: 18 spins
THE SIMPLE RULES
Rise unit +1 on a hit.
Use the next higher-paying location on a hit.
Go back to the previous lower-paying location ON A MISSED CYCLE.
If your last hit gives you a profit or makes you break even, you reset to the even chance level (i.e start over).
The rationale of the delayed parachute is that if it goes poorly, you will be covering locations with more numbers, giving yourself a better chance to getting some hits and “fluctuating” until the tide turns so you can maximize the chances to “be there”. i.e. bankroll preservation. On the other hand, you will catch the good streaks naturally covering higher-paying locations to increase your chances of a recovery and a successful session-end or reset point.

BETTING EXAMPLE
You start at the even chance level. Using one (1) as your base unit, and stay there until you get a hit.
When you get a hit, you check your balance.
If your hit makes you a profit or breaks even, then you call it a reset and stay at the even-chance level.
If after your hit you are below your starting balance, then rise the betting unit +1, to 2 units, and move your bets to the dozens/column level.
If you miss 3 spins (a full dozen’s cycle) you regress and take your bets back to the even chance level.
If you hit while betting the cycle, you check your bankroll balance.
If your hit makes you break even on the initial balance or makes you any profit, then it’s time for a reset.
If -on the contrary- you are still below your initial balance, then rise +1 (to 3 units) and move your bets to the double-street level.
And there the same procedure for each level goes again.
If you miss 6 spins (a full double-street cycle) then regress your bets back to the dozens level.
If you hit, check your balance. If breaking even or in any profit, then it’s time to reset.
If on the contrary you are still holding a deficit, then rise your unit +1 (to 4 units) and move your bets to the corner/quad level.
Repeat the procedure for the level.
If you miss 9 spins without a hit, go back to double-street level.
If you hit, check your bankroll balance for a break even or profit.
If it’s a deficit, then rise +1 and move to the next higher-paying location level.

Same procedure for the rest of locations. Always using the cycle = payout to know how many spins to hold your bet on a location.

SPECIFIC SPIN SEQUENCE EXAMPLE
35 -1 -1
24 -1 -2
22 -1 -3
36 -1 -4
6   1 -3
18 -2 -5
5   4 -1
34 -3 -4
21 -3 -7
0  -3 -10
34 -3 -13
15 -3 -16
21 -3 -19
31 -2 -21
29 -2 -23
18 -2 -25
0  -1 -26
22 -1 -27
13  1 -26
6   4 -22
24 -3 -25
12 -3 -28
22 -3 -31
25 -3 -34
17 -3 -37
32 -3 -40
35 -2 -42
31 -2 -44
6   4 -40
8  -3 -43
8  -3 -46
29 -3 -49
26 -3 -52
26 -3 -55
20 -3 -58
30 -2 -60
28 -2 -62
14 -2 -64
23 -1 -65
29 -1 -66
35 -1 -67
9   1 -66
36 -2 -68
5   4 -64
36 -3 -67
34 -3 -70
28 -3 -73
36 -3 -76
21 -3 -79
24 -3 -82
24 -2 -84
12  4 -80
4  15 -65
32 -4 -69
21 -4 -73
35 -4 -77
13 -4 -81
18 -4 -85
2  32 -53
34 -5 -58
26 -5 -63
25 -5 -68
36 -5 -73
11 -5 -78
20 -5 -83
15 -5 -88
17 -5 -93
3  55 -38
9  -6 -44
22 -6 -50
28 -6 -56
0  -6 -62
27 -6 -68
27 -6 -74
23 -6 -80
0  -6 -86
1  210 124
At the end of this long hard session we finish with 124 chips profit. We reached a maximum draw-down of -86 units. we also reached a 6 units bet on a split.

COMMENTS
This strategy will definitely offer you some big, huge wins, but it is a bit on the aggressive, risky side!

Effectively this is a totally different method than the original and produces very unique results. Overall it is indeed a method worth studying, testing and maybe applying on the roulette tables. It has some weaknesses too though. It gets too aggressive on the splits level. See the betting example above. There is no need to spend 6 chips every spin, in order to hit a huge win. Betting 5 units on the split would give us a very nice profit with less risk.

There is also another important weakness, that in some way defies the purpose of the original parachute bet selection. In the original version you aim at a single number and close down to it. Whenever this number (or split) hit, you recouped your losses and were in profit. In this version we explain here this is not true. You are closing down to your split when the area is hot, but you go further away when their area is cold. The problem with this is that if your split hits while you are “away”, betting Even Chances (High Low) or Dozens, which will not make up your losses. So there is the bad scenario of your split hitting when you are away from it.

ego

 I just going to clarify the power of the Parachute selection process with the method I posted.

You have to understand that each and every step of the parachute is calculated with binomial probability.
So each step has 50% probability to hit and there are eight steps.

Assume the target number fail and the parachute method fails, then three things happen.
1) You lose the target number that hits seven times out of eight.
2) You lose a parachute method that is equal to eight reds or black in a row
3) You lose both in the same time during the same momentum

The response is what I mention before, action play and greedy return on investment.
You want to win more and faster and want to change the basic idea.
My opinion.

Cheers
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

ego


Find a losing session at session 36:

1. Parachute Win Number Win
2. Parachute Win Number Win
3. Parachute Win Number Win
4. Parachute Win Number Loss
5. Parachute Win Number Loss
6. Parachute Win Number Win
7. Parachute Win Number Win
8. Parachute Win Number Win
9. Parachute Win Number Win
10. Parachute Win Number Win
11. Parachute Win Number Win
12. Parachute Win Number Win
13. Parachute Win Number Win
14. Parachute Win Number Win
15. Parachute Win Number Win
16. Parachute Win Number Win
17. Parachute Win Number Win
18. Parachute Win Number Win
19. Parachute Win Number Win
20. Parachute Win Number Loss
21. Parachute Win Number Win
22. Parachute Win Number Loss
23. Parachute Win Number Win
24. Parachute Win Number Win
25. Parachute Win Number Loss
26. Parachute Win Number Win
27. Parachute Win Number Win
28. Parachute Win Number Win
29. Parachute Win Number Win
30. Parachute Win Number Win
31. Parachute Win Number Loss
32. Parachute Win Number Loss
33. Parachute Win Number Win
34. Parachute Win Number Win
35. Parachute Win Number Win
36. Parachute Loss Number Loss

Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

vladir

Have you coded this? How many wins can you have for a losing session on average? 36 sessions is not much to draw a conclusion...
"In God we trust; all others must bring data", W. Edwards Deming

ego


True, but I think about Lee Tutor who start his parachute with Line, then you can play table minimum 2$.
His parachute is 86 steps, so maybe you can make it using cycles and pass the 50% threshold.

I will look into this ...

Cheers


Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

ego


I notice a difference using cycles instead of binomial probability calculation.
It seems is a pretty good strength behind cycles holding up much better.

Test a short variant where you pick two hits within 25 attempts and getting the odds one in four.
Where three formation comes with one repeat and one losing formation.

The parachute goes from even money to split using that selection process and is a total of 75 attempts.
Can be extended to use the original with three hits within 25 attempts by just adding one single number position.

Just won 50 sessions very easy with not going to deep into the parachute.
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

Ricky

Quote from: ego on Jun 02, 12:10 PM 2018irst, I discuss the bank interest and return on investment for stocks. The reason is that you don't double your money during one casino visit or make several thousand each month. My point is to be happy with a modest return on investment during a period of a year playing. I have some assumptions that there is a lot of active players who want to win big and fast.  They don't succeed.
Hi Ego,
Have you ever heard the term 10 bagger in the stockmarket? Even a 1 Bagger is better than what your describing as a modest return on the stockmarket. I would not put roulette in the same investment category as inveting or trading stocks. There is no comparison unless you are an AP with excellent hit rate on your strategy.

Cheers,
Ricky

ego


I don't agree AP is better because advantage play is dead with today's wheels and conditions.
You can not play visual ballistics and get an edge, that is just nonsense.

For example, most casinos and most dealers say No More Bets 6 laps before the drop.
This means you have to predict ball speed much more early then in the old days.
That makes ball speed estimation inaccurate and unstable comparing the prediction process in the old days.

Should also mention that if you find a dominant drop zone with three vertical deflectors hitting you are lucky.
Two and one deflector hit is so rare so you need to travel around the world to find such situation and such wheel.

This means the ball jumps are so wide and random so there is no bias pattern to predict.
So next time you elaborate about Advantage Play you should look into facts.

Cheers
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

nottophammer

Quote from: ego on Jun 06, 06:56 AM 2018
I don't agree AP is better because advantage play is dead with today's wheels and conditions.
You can not play visual ballistics and get an edge, that is just nonsense.

For example, most casinos and most dealers say No More Bets 6 laps before the drop.
This means you have to predict ball speed much more early then in the old days.
That makes ball speed estimation inaccurate and unstable comparing the prediction process in the old days.

Should also mention that if you find a dominant drop zone with three vertical deflectors hitting you are lucky.
Two and one deflector hit is so rare so you need to travel around the world to find such situation and such wheel.

This means the ball jumps are so wide and random so there is no bias pattern to predict.
So next time you elaborate about Advantage Play you should look into facts.

Cheers

Excellent, hope Daft head General reads this
How do you win at roulette, simple, make the right decision

ego


Well, General is a full time professional, so he finds does wheel as he travels around and has his own team.
But visual ballistics is not his main income, he and his team are experts to spot bias.

I am pretty sure General can use visual ballistics with success, he is a legend among the AP community.

Cheers
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

-