Challenge to AP Players

[Scarface]

AP players play the game based on bias.  However, some here cannot comprehend that system players can win on bias as well.  Random is very predictable, and there will always be an unequal distribution of numbers in the short term.  36 numbers will not all hit in 36 spins.  There will be a fairly predictable number of repeats. 

Test this and find out for yourself.  See what happens after 36, 72, or 108 spins.  Watch how the numbers fall.  Look at the ratio between the hottest and coldest number.  Normally, you can see the hottest number hit at least 9 times before the coldest number shows once. 

So here's my challenge to AP players who don't believe random creates a predictable  bias.  Let any member here pick a sample of 108 spins (I choose that number because its 3 cycles of 36).  I will wager $100 that the ratio between the hottest and coldest number at the end of spins will be at least 7 to 1.  If I win, pay $100. If the ratio between hottest and coldest is worse than 7 to 1, I pay $100.  100 game minimum 

Let's play.  Put money in escrow first.

[The General]

AP players play the game based on bias.  However, some here cannot comprehend that system players can win on bias as well.  Random is very predictable, and there will always be an unequal distribution of numbers in the short term.  36 numbers will not all hit in 36 spins.  There will be a fairly predictable number of repeats. 

Test this and find out for yourself.  See what happens after 36, 72, or 108 spins.  Watch how the numbers fall.  Look at the ratio between the hottest and coldest number.  Normally, you can see the hottest number hit at least 9 times before the coldest number shows once. 

So here's my challenge to AP players who don't believe random creates a predictable  bias.  Let any member here pick a sample of 108 spins (I choose that number because its 3 cycles of 36).  I will wager $100 that the ratio between the hottest and coldest number at the end of spins will be at least 7 to 1.  If I win, pay $100. If the ratio between hottest and coldest is worse than 7 to 1, I pay $100.  100 game minimum 

Let's play.  Put money in escrow first.

Scarface,

Of course there will be an unequal distribution of numbers.   For example...in 38 spins,  there are a zillion more ways for each number not to hit exactly once than there is for them all to hit just once. 

What you're not comprehending is that you can't take advantage of it because you have no way of knowing whether or not a number that's hit twice is going to continue hitting or stop hitting.  The reason is that on the next series of spins the same number of pockets remain on the wheel.

[Scarface]

General,

Ok, at least you acknowledged that extreme bias is very common in 100 spins.  So good first step  .  The great thing about this is that its predictable!  And you don't have to wait 1000 spins for it to play out.

Seems like you want a cookie cutter approach to this, and want to know exactly what to bet and when.  This is where testing comes in my friend, and flexibility.

Look at it this way...let's say you accept the fact that before the coldest number hits, there is normally a 9 to 1 ratio between the hottest and coldest number.  So how would you bet?  Do you bet on unhit numbers or repeaters? 

Random will show us that at least 1 or a few of these numbers will break out past the rest.  Come on, it's not rocket science.  A number cannot repeat 9 times, until its repeated 8,7,6,5...etc. 

[Madi]

Come on general ur wish become fulfilled today. A turbo follow is challanging.

Where to come? AC , PC , CA or AU or in steves kitchen

[Scarface]

The key here, is that you dont have to bet all the numbers.  Just focus on the front runners to make it easier.

Sometimes a number will come out hot in the very beginning.  As the game progresses, you can even switch groups you play with.  But be sure to know how probability will play out.  If basing on 36 spins, know what to expect best and worse case.  Same with 72, or 108 spins.  Test!

[TurboGenius]

Where to come? AC , PC , CA or AU or in steves kitchen

I had to get out of bed to post my LOL to that one.
I'll vote for Steve's kitchen, I know he's got coffee. I'll even make it.
I hope it's not the instant powder crap though.
I'll bet there's even a roulette wheel in there - "General" won't sell me his
from the Taj - that bastard lol. What do I have to do ??

[Madi]

Scarface i accept  ur challange. Use 1000 unit make 1000 unit in each game total profit 100k after 100 game. Throw every graph here. Where to send money let me know

[Scarface]

Madison, don't think you understand the challenge.  I'm betting that 1 number will repeat at least 7 times in 108 spins, while the coldest number will not hit more than once.

Just ran 8 simulations straight, and would have won all 8 

[Madi]

That really doesnt help. 7 timer can come in such a way that we could lose. Try some RS spin

[The General]

General,

Ok, at least you acknowledged that extreme bias is very common in 100 spins.  So good first step  .  The great thing about this is that its predictable!  And you don't have to wait 1000 spins for it to play out.

Seems like you want a cookie cutter approach to this, and want to know exactly what to bet and when.  This is where testing comes in my friend, and flexibility.

Look at it this way...let's say you accept the fact that before the coldest number hits, there is normally a 9 to 1 ratio between the hottest and coldest number.  So how would you bet?  Do you bet on unhit numbers or repeaters? 

Random will show us that at least 1 or a few of these numbers will break out past the rest.  Come on, it's not rocket science.  A number cannot repeat 9 times, until its repeated 8,7,6,5...etc.

Wow, everything that I said clearly went over your head. 

[Scarface]

General, if I'm wrong please point it out specifically,  without the 1 in 37 junk.  I'm talking about probability, and how it behaves, as well as how predictable it is. 

I can throw up pages of simulations if you need proof.  Or accept my challenge....even with no money on the line I can prove what I said is correct

[The General]

Scarface,

Do you have skype?

I too have a simulator with millions of real spins.

[Steve]

Let any member here pick a sample of 108 spins (I choose that number because its 3 cycles of 36).  I will wager $100 that the ratio between the hottest and coldest number at the end of spins will be at least 7 to 1.  If I win, pay $100. If the ratio between hottest and coldest is worse than 7 to 1, I pay $100.  100 game minimum 

That's basically like saying after 1000 spins, about half will be red and half black. You're not understanding although this is "predictable", its just a product of basic probability, and you cannot use it to predict spins with any better than random accuracy.

Another example is it's predictable the ball will fall, eventually. It doesnt really help, does it?

All you repeaters guys sure talk a lot, but that's all it is - talk. There is nothing solid to back anything up, and the information you give is irrelevant, as explained above.

[Joe]

Look at it this way...let's say you accept the fact that before the coldest number hits, there is normally a 9 to 1 ratio between the hottest and coldest number.  So how would you bet?  Do you bet on unhit numbers or repeaters?

Random will show us that at least 1 or a few of these numbers will break out past the rest.  Come on, it's not rocket science.  A number cannot repeat 9 times, until its repeated 8,7,6,5...etc.

But a number which has repeated can fall asleep and numbers which haven't hit can start repeating. So a number which has repeated 5 times say can suddenly go cold and a number which hasn't hit at all can suddenly start hitting like crazy, although it may not hit as many as 5 times. When that happens you're not betting on the previously cold numbers because they're not front runners, so you lose. My testing has shown that there's no advantage to be gained by betting the front runners at all. The cold numbers are just as likely to perform well.

There are several things you can measure which would tell you that one or another approach is "better". You could record the gaps between hits, the number of hits, the longest number of spins without a hit, etc.
So if picking hot numbers was superior to picking cold numbers the hot number selection would have shorter gaps between hits and the average wait for a hit would be less, but for both selections these parameters show no statistically significant difference. Sometimes betting on hot numbers works better than betting cold numbers, other times the reverse is true, and there's no pattern to it.

From a theoretical point of view this is to be expected in a game of independent trials because what's past has no influence on the future outcomes, but I just wanted to confirm it empirically.

As the General has said, betting on repeaters can have merit if the wheel happens to be biased, but if it's random it makes no difference at all. Random is not itself "biased" if all you mean by it is that numbers will not all show equally often in the short term.

[Scarface]

Coderjoe,

When I say random will create "bias", I mean that there will almost always be an unequal distribution of numbers in short term...some way above expectation, and some way below or not hitting at all.

I definitely get what you're saying about hot numbers turning cold, or cold numbers turning hot.  But I do not just place my bets on a few "hot" numbers and play them indefinitely...I know this would be a losing game.  The couple of numbers I may be playing the first 20 spins may not be what I'm playing 50 spins in.

In 108 spins, there is usually like a 9-0 ratio between hottest and coldest at the end of a session.  I don't need to pick the right numbers from the start of the session.  All I need is 2 or 3 hits within that session to be a winner