Why not like AP players in forums ?

[Steve]

Anyway really I'm just trying to help. Most aps here are the same. I don't care if people don't want to listen. I'm not talking to those people. I'm not interested in forcing anything down throats.

[winkel]

[/url]link:s://:.vlsroulette.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=13004.0;attach=4960;image[/img]

further explanations are destroyed in the vls-section link:s://:.vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=13004.msg85552#msg85552

[winkel]

I can suggest one simple thing. Usually, we use the term - "long run", but the same we can take simply one next spin and look what will be in it.

Say you chose accordingly some previous spins, that in next spin more preferable are hits to 1-10 pockets, because accordingly GUT now must be changed from situation 17-16 to 16-16 etc.... so you bet 1-10.
But I take simply the ruler, measure wide of pockets and find, that pockets 11-20 are simply wider than other every by 3 mm and I bet on pockets 11-20.

Now say how you think, which of us have bigger chance to win in one next spin - you, because such say GUT , or me, because mine pockets are simply wider?

the "next one spin" isn´t worth to discuss. All who argue with this don´t understand probability.  For further information see Kolmogoroff.
If you wanna know how independent random results work together read Markov.

You example:
- In that case there wouldn´t be any crossings
- If there is a crossing it would disappear after some spins.
- There will be other crossings appearing which are built by pockets 11-20

I will win, because some day they will fix the pockets and you will lose, but GUT will still remain.

[Steve]

How can you not change the odds of winning on the next spin, but change the odds of winning on multiple spins?

Simple question.

[winkel]

How can you not change the odds of winning on the next spin, but change the odds of winning on multiple spins?

Simple question.

again the next spin argument.

If you follow multiple independent trials you can group the results:
Hit - non hit - multiple hits

these groups have their own probability to hit.

[Steve]

Yes they have probability too. But you didn't answer my question fully.

Youre basically saying a house of lego is not made from individual bricks.

The odds of 2 spins is 37 squared. Thats TWO independent spins. Whether you group or separate them, it's the same thing.

Another way of saying what you said, is 1 spin has different odds for two spins. We know that. So how does it help? Its just 37 squared.

[winkel]

You didn´t understand pls. read Kolmogoroff and you will understand (hopefully)

[Bebediktus3]

the "next one spin" isn´t worth to discuss. All who argue with this don´t understand probability.

Winkel, but you understand, that with such sentence you simply show some weakness. For probability are no difference is it is one or thousand or million. Probability is such as it is.
Problem is that you not understand, what I wanted to say.

So I can say more simple.
Say you detected accordingly previous spins, that numbers 1-10 have bigger probability to be hit. But say you not know, that casino can change wideness of pockets and it has done, that on pockets 1-10 making them narrower.
You still believe that pockets which you chose accordingly your system are preferable?
I hope that no.

So what I wanted to say is that previous spins do not have effect to what will be in next spin again and again and these next spins can be even million.
Ball movement and stopping in the pocket is the physical event and to result have effect only some physical changes - such as ball speed, wheel speed, some deformations of the rotor of the stator, some ball features, some weather features and etc,  but not what was before.

You must understand that what was before is the result of something, but not reason!

[Steve]

Winkel, the information is scattered. Exactly where can i find his complete theory clearly explained?

So far it looks like basic probability explained a different way.

[winkel]

Youre basically saying a house of lego is not made from individual bricks.

and what AP-players say is: There are only single bricks but no house.

1) Watching the next single spin says every number has the probability of 1/37. That is correct and not changed.

2) But if we group these 37 numbers e.g. in dozens every dozen (group of 12 single numbers) has the probability of 12/37.

That is what all AP-players don´t believe, because they only think in sentence number 1.

What I do accordingly to Kolmogoroff is:
I group the numbers after every spin in at least three groups: non-hit and hit once and hit more than once.

If we have 19 unhit and 14 once hit and 4 hit more than once the probability of these three groups is:
19/37 and 14/37 and 4/37.

Can you follow so far?

[winkel]

... But say you not know, that casino can change wideness of pockets and it has done, that on pockets 1-10 making them narrower.
You still believe that pockets which you chose accordingly your system are preferable?
I hope that no.

We can only discuss this problem if you think in spins not in pockets.
Even if probability is changed by a biased wheel GUT remains in its structure.
And even if the wheel is fixed (at an unknown time) it doesn´t change anything to GUT.

See Markovs example: If students have written a homework and the teacher is to correct them A d-Grade should get a D.
But if the weather is bad it could be that it will be a d- and if the weather is good it good be a d+.
We could say a d is a d, but it is changed by the "unknown" psychological state of the teacher.

For d´s set random result for psychological state of teacher set "biased wheel"

[Bebediktus3]

See Markovs example: If students have written a homework and the teacher is to correct them A d-Grade should get a D.
But if the weather is bad it could be that it will be a d- and if the weather is good it good be a d+.

But this is logical, because of teacher grade student accordingly mood. So such are humans. Good mood - do one, bad mood - do other.

So the reason is mood!

But in our case reason is not what was before - you can calculate how you want what was before how much was unhit, how much was once hit etc - you count results and leave aside reasons!

Simple example - you observe results and see - was 19 unhit 14hit once and 4 hits more. But that is only for you - for some other player who started observe earlier, or later - these results will be different , but next spin will be one for all!

Ok final attempt - you are basketplayer and throw free throws -3 not hits and 4 hits from 7 attempts - what will be next hit
Are one "mathematical" task :
" House has 7 floors, on every floor are 17 flats.
The question - which is the age of women which live in 3 floor , 11flat ? "

That is like you look to roulette.
You simply mixed results with reasons....

[winkel]

Simple example - you observe results and see - was 19 unhit 14hit once and 4 hits more. But that is only for you - for some other player who started observe earlier, or later - these results will be different , but next spin will be one for all!
...
That is like you look to roulette.
You simply mixed results with reasons....

If player 1 starts at spin 23 and player two starts at spin 32 of the day`s permanence, it has no effect to GUT.

There is no reason in randomness but there are results.
Every game starts with 37 unhit numbers. And we know that there will be a point that all 37 numbers have hit.

[Bebediktus3]

If we have 19 unhit and 14 once hit and 4 hit more than once the probability of these three groups is:
19/37 and 14/37 and 4/37.

Here is absolute nonsense. To know the probability of the group of hits we firstly need know number of total attempts. Here we that not know because 4 more than once can be 8 but can be infinity....
And second, at all knowing that in X spins are 14 numbers which hit once - for us is worthless information - we still not know which number will hit in next spin !
The only information from previous spins have worth for us - is when we have big data of results and when do chi-square test which shows for us that the result is not random!

[Bebediktus3]

By the way Winkel, you know, that some peoples tried to sell your GUT for quite big money in some Russian forums 4-5 years back?
Maybe you himself that organized?
Anyway, your that GUT theory at least have some background - so the idea is maybe smart. But all kill wrong mathematical calculations if such was done....