Why not like AP players in forums ?

[Scarface]

If the math doesn't change then how can a player use statistics to their advantage? 
Can you create an example demonstrating what you mean?

Probability can help make better bet selections.  First, realize that the average session will most likely be 200 spins or less.  This is what we have to defeat.  What happens in 1 million spins doesn't matter.

There has to be a reason a strategy wins.     Consider these 2 different approaches:

Example 1: player believes that numbers hit will tend to equal out in the short term.  This player will base his entire strategy on this event happening most of the time.  His strategy relies on cold numbers catching up to hot numbers, eventually there will be an even number of repeats.

Example 2:  player believes that in less than 200 spins there will be an unequal distribution of numbers.  He believes that some numbers can outpace other by a factor of more than 6 to 1 or even better.  His whole strategy is based on this happening most of the time. 

So, which example is better?  If you run 100s of simulations of a 200 spin cycle you will see what random does.  The odds of an equal number or repeats ever occurring within 200 spins is infinitely small.  It won't even be remotely close.  There will always be a wide gap between hottest and coldest number.  Basic probability.  A player CAN use probability to make better bet selection.

[The General]

Winkel, Scarface,

The number of pockets on the wheel determines the probability of a number winning in the random game.
If the same number of pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next, then how can the probability of winning change based on what has hit on past spins? 

Simple logic says past spins have zero effect.  Now if you want to argue that the number of pockets changes somehow then go right ahead.  However if you take the time to look down and count them at each spin you'll find that they're all still there!

[winkel]

Winkel, Scarface,

The number of pockets on the wheel determines the probability of a number winning in the random game.
If the same number of pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next, then how can the probability of winning change based on what has hit on past spins? 

Simple logic says past spins have zero effect.  Now if you want to argue that the number of pockets changes somehow then go right ahead.  However if you take the time to look down and count them at each spin you'll find that they're all still there!

as long as you can´t think in wider terms than until the next spin, you will not understand anything and you know nothing about statistical dependence in a sequence of random results.

[Scarface]

General, you're never gonna see past the house edge.  Why ask a question if you're gonna completely ignore the answer.  If I took the time, I could make 100 statements on what will happen in 100 spins, that nearly all will be true.  You don't have to be psychic, just know how probability works.  Any strategy that bets against this will fail.

[denzie]

General, you're never gonna see past the house edge.  Why ask a question if you're gonna completely ignore the answer.  If I took the time, I could make 100 statements on what will happen in 100 spins, that nearly all will be true.  You don't have to be psychic, just know how probability works.  Any strategy that bets against this will fail.

I can only give one thumbs up....I would give 98 out of 100 if i could 

[winkel]

If this next-spin-blabla would be right it would also affect the AP-Players.

And the "remaining-37-numbers"-talk is also due to the AP-Players.

What can we leran from that: They are just apita

[Scarface]

Winkel, General doesn't care.  He's not interested in seeing how probabilty gives predictable results over a series of spins, and how it can reduce variance.  He's stuck with the number of pockets on the wheel.  I've ask him to test a few things in several different threads...he never bothers and always comes back with the same mantra. 

[Bebediktus3]

Winkel, lets do the simple thing. Can you play through skype? I will throw the ball, you will see translation and will say where you bet. The result will run through chi-square test - all will be clear. Mathematics will show all - have you advantage, or not ....

[Madi]

Winkel, lets do the simple thing. Can you play through skype? I will throw the ball, you will see translation and will say where you bet. The result will run through chi-square test - all will be clear. Mathematics will show all - have you advantage, or not ....

Any reason that these people need to prove it to u in u kitchen

[winkel]

Winkel, lets do the simple thing. Can you play through skype? I will throw the ball, you will see translation and will say where you bet. The result will run through chi-square test - all will be clear. Mathematics will show all - have you advantage, or not ....

You didn´t read what I´ve told. GUT has nothing to do with a CHI-Test.
Better you try my math than to refer to any other (undefined AP-)Math.

You can take any of TCS´s Video-Tutorials to do your math. So you don´t have to throw some absurd sequences to prove me wrong.

[Steve]

Winkel, so far i understand your explanations. But exactly how is it all used to change the odds?

You appear to be saying you bet on the events that must happen.

Please provide clear explanations of why the events must happen.

[Steve]

He's not interested in seeing how probabilty gives predictable results over a series of spins, and how it can reduce variance

Exactly how can it reduce variance? Please give one clear example.

[Scarface]

Exactly how can it reduce variance? Please give one clear example.

Did you see my previous post with the 2 examples?  Let's face it, the average session for most games is somewhere between 30-200 spins depending on when the player chooses to exit.  200 spins in probably close to 6 hours play on your average table. 

Which strategy would you say is better from the two examples I gave?  Strategy based on a fairly equal distribution of numbers....or a strategy based on unequal distribution?  It's easy to say that all spins are independent, and the house edge will make us all lose.  But what does random show us to happen? What is the norm based on probability? 

Probability shows what normally happens is a number will most likely hit 9 times before the coldest hits once.  Probability shows that an equal number of repeats occurring for 1 cycle is astronomically small, much less for several cycles.

[Steve]

Probability shows what normally happens is a number will most likely hit 9 times before the coldest hits once.  Probability shows that an equal number of repeats occurring for 1 cycle is astronomically small, much less for several cycles.

A lot of things are probable. But what you appear to be missing is you still aren't changing the odds of actually winning.

Its like saying:

* Roulette is predictable because some statistics are predictable

* After 10 spins, the probability is some will be red, some black

* The probability is MOST of the time, there will NOT be an equal number of reds/blacks.

* If we have 4 reds and 5 blacks, then the probability is BLACK will spin next.

It has mistakes.

[Steve]

Which strategy would you say is better from the two examples I gave?  Strategy based on a fairly equal distribution of numbers....or a strategy based on unequal distribution?

They are no better than each other.

What you are attempting to do has been tried before many times. It doesn't work because the previous numbers have no such connection to the future numbers. The probability that any number will win, as general said, depends on the number of pockets.

Why would the distribution of numbers affect the future spins?

I understand what you are saying and trying to do, but it doesnt work.