Is proper bet selection really necessary?

[winkel]

Winkel, are you prepared to have a proper discussion about this? .....

I am since my first post in this thread

But your understanding is so poor you dont understand that. You even made jokes about it which made your  inexperience obvious.
But do you think this and the following sentences are kind of a proper discussion?

No professional would be confused about what odds are, and whether or not their system changed the odds, would they?

Your logic and understanding of statistics is childlike. But one thing at a time...

[Steve]

Winkel you are avoiding the questions again

[winkel]

....

My question is give me a typical simple sequence of events where your system wins.

For example, when thereare 18 unhits, bet all the unhit on the next spin.... and if you waited for this situation every time, you would win more than you lose.
...

this is what you didn´t see nor accept.

19 unhit vs 18 hit (as an example only)
first point this crossing could appear is after spin 18. 18 different numbers (pockets) have hit no repeater.
19 unhit vs 17 hit and 1 double hit is first after spin 19
19 unhit vs 16 hit and two double hits is first after spin 20
and so on with all the variances with 3xhit 4xhit within any mixed possbilities.

19 unhit and any combination of 1xhit, 2xhits, 3x hits and so on is seen until now latest at spin 42(after spin 41).

The odds are always the same 19/37 for the unhit.
But don´t  you think that are are combinations of 19/37 and several other hit pockets where probability to hit is better than odds tell?
Don´t you think that there are reasons that can tell me the next spin one of 19 unhit will hit?

[Nimo]

That's right, but what's confusing is you're saying the "odds" are 1/37. In sports betting and gambling in general, the odds usually means the payouts. Bookie's odds change but not in roulette, each winning # is paid 35-1 which equates to a probability of 1/36.

Odds are 1/37, there are 37 pockets and the ball can only land in one, the odds of the ball landing in a pocket are 1/37.  The payout is 35:1, the probability is A/37^N  Where  A is the amount of numbers and N is the spins

12 numbers in 1 spin has a probability of a hit of =-(((25/37)^1)-1) which equals 32.4324%
12 numbers in 2 spins has a probability of a hit  =-(((25/37)^2)-1) which equals 54.3462%
and so on.

This is how my mind sees it. 

[winkel]

Winkel you are avoiding the questions again

for the purpose of a proper discussion pls stop these rethorical tricks.

[winkel]

Odds are 1/37, there are 37 pockets and the ball can only land in one, the odds of the ball landing in a pocket are 1/37.  The payout is 35:1, the probability is A/37^N  Where  A is the amount of numbers and N is the spins

12 numbers in 1 spin has a probability of a hit of =-(((25/37)^1)-1) which equals 32.4324%
12 numbers in 2 spins has a probability of a hit  =-(((25/37)^2)-1) which equals 54.3462%
and so on.

This is how my mind sees it.

AP-Players denie to know about conditional probability.

[TheMind]

I never exploit defects in the wheel, not needed.
I don't watch the rotor or any other part of the wheel, I'd rather look at the cute blonde next to me. 
I  said multiple times, the odds don't change.  Probability does.

Repciprocal of probability are odds. And vice versa. Perfect random single zero wheel has 1/37 chance for each pocket. Biased one will range from 0.x/37 to 1.x/37. All dividends add up to 37. So your statement is wrong!

[Steve]

Odds are 1/37, there are 37 pockets and the ball can only land in one, the odds of the ball landing in a pocket are 1/37.  The payout is 35:1, the probability is A/37^N  Where  A is the amount of numbers and N is the spins

12 numbers in 1 spin has a probability of a hit of =-(((25/37)^1)-1) which equals 32.4324%
12 numbers in 2 spins has a probability of a hit  =-(((25/37)^2)-1) which equals 54.3462%
and so on.

This is how my mind sees it. 

Nimo, it appears you are saying, within a group of spins, the more numbers you bet, and the more spins you bet on, the lower the probability you wont get a win. Is this correct?

[Steve]

But don´t  you think that are are combinations of 19/37 and several other hit pockets where probability to hit is better than odds tell?

If you are betting more numbers, then your probabability of betting on the winning number will be higher.but it makes no difference because there is no connection between previous spins. You're still left with the same probability for each independent bet, with the same unfair payouts.

You are confusing what conditional probability is. You are incorrectly assuming past spins change the probability of future spins. Instead, you appear to be looking at the varying amount of numbers you bet, and for how many spins you bet.

The reality is you dont have a series of clever connected bets. You just have a mess of different bets on different spins, with each unique bet having its own probability of hitting, and the unfair payout.

The wheel doesnt care when you think something is more likely.

[winkel]

Another example hich explains the idea of gut but is no gut betting point.

I have watched about 9200 roulette sequences.
After spin 10 there were 2431 sequences with no repeaters.
After spin 13 there were 817 sequences with no repeater left.

That means:
If I bet in spin 11 and 12 and 13  I have a chance of a win of about 66%
My odds change with every spin: against me:for me 27:10 ; 26:11 ; 25:12 
You see my odds are not higher but increasing
I bet max/max loss (10+11+12) 33 units
possible wins: spin 11 net win 25; spin 12 net win 14; spin 13 net win 2

[winkel]

You are confusing what conditional probability is. You are incorrectly assuming past spins change the probability of future spins.

The wheel doesnt care when you think something is more likely.

The wheel is a dead material. It is wrong to give it intelligence and emotions and things like memory. It just doesn´t know what it is doing. And it doesn´t know about statistics and conditional probability.
Therefore it can´t do anything against me nor for me.

So any argument with "the wheel has... , cares,,, does" is an invalid argument.

So if I calculate with conditional probability I have an advantage

[Nimo]

Nimo, it appears you are saying, within a group of spins, the more numbers you bet, and the more spins you bet on, the lower the probability you wont get a win. Is this correct?

No, that's not what I'm saying, take this sample for GUT 18/19

Spin 1 probability of a hit is 48.6486%
Spin 2 probability of a hit is 73.6303%
Spin 3 probability of a hit is 86.4588%
Spin 4 probability of a hit is 93.0464%
Spin 5 probability of a hit is 96.4292%
Spin 6 probability of a hit is 98.1663%
Spin 7 probability of a hit is 99.0584%
Spin 8 probability of a hit is 99.5164%
Spin 9 probability of a hit is 99.7517%
Spin 10 probability of a hit is 99.8724%
Spin 11 probability of a hit is 99.9345%
Spin 12 probability of a hit is  99.9663%
Spin 13 probability of a hit is 99.9827%
Spin 14 probability of a hit is 99.9911%
Spin 15 probability of a hit is 99.9954%
Spin 16 probability of a hit is 99.9976%
Spin 17 probability of a hit is 99.9987%
Spin 18 probability of a hit is 99.9993%
Spin 19 probability of a hit is 99.9996%
Spin 20 probability of a hit is 99.9998%
Spin 21 probability of a hit is 99.9999%
Spin 22 probability of a hit is 99.9999%

Playing to hit 18 numbers to go to 19, on the first spin you chance to win is 48.64%, by spin 8 your chance of a win is 99.51%, these are probabilities, they can never go to a complete 100%.  The chance at spin 22 is 99.9999%, but it can still lose, however the percentages are in your favour.  The probability equation I show is just the numbers exponentially going toward their mean.   

[winkel]

If you are betting more numbers, then your probabability of betting on the winning number will be higher.but it makes no difference because there is no connection between previous spins. You're still left with the same probability for each independent bet, with the same unfair payouts.

This is correct for the very next spin. But only for the very next spin. It is wrong for all further spins.

[winkel]

You are confusing what conditional probability is. You are incorrectly assuming past spins change the probability of future spins. Instead, you appear to be looking at the varying amount of numbers you bet, and for how many spins you bet.

The reality is you dont have a series of clever connected bets. You just have a mess of different bets on different spins, with each unique bet having its own probability of hitting, and the unfair payout.

The wheel doesnt care when you think something is more likely.

Is this what you understand under "proper discussion"?
It is no discussion it is just saying NO or you are wrong but no arguments.

and of course the same old song of "changing odds" and "37 pockets"

[The General]

Guys,

You can't side step probability just by observing it on the side lines.  (Gambler's fallacy.)

Regardless of how many numbers have hit or have not hit, the number of pockets on the wheel still determines he probability of winning.  Why is this so hard for the KTF and GUT folks to comprehend?