Is proper bet selection really necessary?

[Steve]

Notto, when it comes to issues like average hits, non-hits, repeaters or whatever, you might think youre:

- Using statistics, because it tells us what must happen, or

- Using math to beat a math game, or

- Using averages that are undeniable and inevitable.

In each case, your perception of reality is wrong.

Say a player said they can use averages to win, because they know after about 100 spins, about half will be black and red. Forget zero for now.

They say their strategy is:

1. Observe 100 spins

2. Start betting when you see in 100 spins, 40 are black and 60 are red, or the difference is even greater

3. Next they bet on the lesser spun color, because they know the more spins there are, the closer the balance between red/black.

Its just fallacy. The averages are from basic probability and statistics. It cant at all be used to increase accuracy of predictions. And when you dont increase accuracy, your bets are as good as random, your bet selection changed nothing.

Where players get stuck is they know the more spins they see, the closer the balance. But the accuracy of bets wont change.

With repeaters, law of a third etc, the fallacies are just as incorrect. The difference is the examples are more complex and difficult to get your head around.... i mean we know we average about 24 unique numbers in 37 spins right? Its inevitable. Thats the way of thinking and its why people get stuck in the fallacy.

[Steve]

In winkels system, he is just waiting for a normal and meaningless statistical event to happen, then expecting spins from there will somehow be more predictable. They arent.

He said he doesnt change odds and doesnt need to. It appears he doesnt understand whats meant by odds. Because if he understood, he'd know its impossible to perpetually profit unless you are winning more frequently than random.

For example, if you bet on a coin toss with 50% probability of a win (50% odds), but are paid only 0.9-1 instead of a fair 1-1 on wins, then how can you profit if you only ever average 50% wins? Thats why you need to improve odds, ie increase accuracy. Winkel saying he doesn't need to change odds is a serious problem.

But ok it appears he just didn't understand what odds means. Not good for a guru, but ok.

Then he said his system tells him when betting is more likely to be a win. Finally, he claims to change the odds / increase accuracy. So let's move on.

His method to do this is like wait for 19 unhit numbers in 18 spins. The "crossing" is about to occur.  I mean wtf? Why do your chances of winning suddenly improve at that point? Does the wheel have this secret point it springs on you??

Its nothing personal against winkel. Not even remotely. I sincerely feel bad when i deflate someone's balloon and tell them santa isn't real. But it's beneficial for them still.

Where i don't feel bad is when they realistically know, after so long, that they've been misleading people. And any embarrassment brought to them is just how it plays out.

Where i especially dont feel bad about it is when the guru clearly knows, is arrogant about it, and continues the charade. These are the kind of people that deliberately use unrealistic games, play money leaderboards, and spend an awful lot of time convincing their play money wins is proof of their superiority over everyone. The master. Thats what narcissists do.

In the end, there will be genuine people who make mistakes, and narcissists who lie through their teeth to keep their charade going. And sometimes there might be a genuine guru with the true hg.

So how can anyone know the difference? Mostly by understanding what does and doesn't work, and why.  Lots of proper testing. And using your own common sense. People shouldn't be so damn gullible.

[nottophammer]

You carry on preaching from your spiral stair case.
As said it's for each individual to find his/her way; if they listen to you, you might show them something of some value, but to me, it's a big NO, made 50 units this morning in 8 spins, thank you out the door, all from collected data of non-hits.

I've said members and guests should treat this forum as a library, so i'll read your reply, but for me it will be the usual 1/37; change the odds, how about you change your record

[Steve]

You carry on preaching from your spiral stair case

At least my stairs head up.

it's for each individual to find his/her way;

I agree. What i like about hearing about people's experiences is it helps me avoid the same mistakes. Its like getting extra experience by living an extra life. I might not take the advice if i don't understand their reasoning, but certainly i will if i do understand and agree with their reasoning.

Alternately, an unwise fool won't listen, and won't even try to understand. Worse still, they may even poke fun.

made 50 units this morning in 8 spins, thank you out the door, all from collected data of non-hits.

Thats great notto, but my palm is still on my face looking down. You have no clue what I'm talking about.

You might be slow, but other members may actually understand amd benefit from what I'm saying.

[Steve]

Notto, i'll make this clear. Rarely ill try to help you. Im not interested. Frankly you're really slow, and wilfully ignorant.  You just need to learn for yourself.

When i respond to your bad logic, it isnt to help you. So dont think im preaching to you.

[Turner]

Notto, i'll make this clear. Rarely ill try to help you. Im not interested. Frankly you're really slow, and wilfully ignorant.  You just need to learn for yourself.

When i respond to your bad logic, it isnt to help you. So dont think im preaching to you.

Ok...I am going to throw in a marketing term that most probably wont know. It is "econometrics"

Econometrics is the study of the implications of a marketing drive or push, after the event, to see if your efforts have yielded better sales, or better communication or less confusion on the website etc. Depends on what the goal was by doing the marketing push.

The push here from Steve and Caleb is to educate people and point out the error of their ways.

Its been an intense campaign and now we need to run some econometrics.

I think the best way would be for Steve and Caleb to stop commenting for a week or 2 and if its been successful, we will start to see new and old posters thinking differently in their posts. looking to improve bet selection....looking for ways to improve the odds etc

If they are still posting like someone who is slow or a retard (not my words) then its a fail.

On finding a fail in econometrics, you change tack, or completly switch stratedgy. You DO NOT ignore the results because you dont like the answer.

And the biggie.....you really dont continue the same strategy knowing it failed or its personal, or has alterior motives other than "educating people"

If I was your manager, I would be looking for ROI for all the time and effort you 2 have invested in this "educational process"

Will you try that?   NOPE!!!

[RouletteGhost]

You can say notto is slow

You can say he doesn’t understand

You can say YOU learn from his mistakes

But the fact remains. He successfully profits from the game betting non hits after X number of spins

Maybe that drives AP players and VB players wild.

[Steve]

Will you try that?   NOPE!!!

Turner, for a week or two?

How about for years?

You are neglecting most of my time i just ignore people's misunderstandings. Ive got my own stuff to do.

I explained circumstances in recent times when i bother to say something. Go back a few years when i started trying to correct people's basic understanding....

Initially i was super polite & politically correct.

Now fast forward to today.

Here's what ive learned:

Some people respond better when I'm gentle. And some people need it spelled out for them in harsh but honest terms.

So i get your point, but this is not a case where I'm harsh and need to be gentle. Ive done that.

This is a case where some people need it explained in a direct and blunt manner. Ever needed to shake someone and say "look, pay attention"

As for calling someone slow, i don't do so lightly or without justification.

What's the conclusion?

Ive been around on forums for some time now. I wouldn't have ever bothered at all if it weren't for a competitor busting his ass to lie about me, and even then i ignored him for 6 months. Thats another story.

When it comes to helping people understand the basics of roulette, ive found the best way to get through to people is directly without sugarcoating. So ive tried your suggestion. If you sugarcoat, they tend to keep staring at the clouds.

The other conclusion is if someone doesn't want to know the truth, and is happy in their own reality however deluded they may be, don't waste your time.  You won't get anywhere.

So like i just said, I'm not trying to help people like notto. I couldn't care less. He doesn't want help or advice.

The players i try to help may start on repeaters, cold numbers or whatever the year's flavor is. But smarter players eventually learn their patterns of system development that lead back to the drawing board. These are the players hungry for the TRUTH, whatever it may be. Thats who i am. Give it to me straight, however painful it is. But back your claims with facts. I don't care how you come across as long as your facts check out.  And that's who I'm talking to. Words like "slow" don't change facts, do they? So they wouldn't bother the people im talking to.

Anyone smart enough, with eyes on truth alone, looks past the message delivery, or who's giving the message..... and focuses on the message itself.

[Bebediktus3]

He successfully profits from the game betting non hits after X number of spins

Did you saw his profit?

Win several times in raw using Martingale not so difficult, but that are not real wins. That left main loss somewhere in front and that in front will come soon...

[nottophammer]

RG, just wound up Normy on MPR, said i wont press ready, but the good old boy i am i did.
Normy my opening 10 spins, not had this in 210 sets of 148 numbers from R.org,
22
36
27
8
27
27
36
36
35
27
= 5/10
now i had to place 32 units, won the 1st 4 bets.
RG, Migos come on and he fucks me up sometimes, he disappears and comes straight back, whether he had to reload the page who knows, but like you said RG, i; +1 all the way at spin 40 which lost was at 16 units on all remaining, the score was 16 repeats to 14 non-hit, so -1 over the 30 spins,
at spin 47 made enough to stop +123, using 19 units.

Who cares what Steve thinks, as long as you know the averages you can K-eep T-he F-aith better known now as the KFC

[Steve]

But the fact remains. He successfully profits from the game betting non hits after X number of spins

You are stuck on this point. I think it's great if anyone wins, however they win. Good on them.

Ive never said you can't win with a system or random bets.

What i respond about is when a guru tells people they will win with an approach thats no better than random bets. Its harmful advice and needs correction.

Rg you didn't read or understand the link i sent.  Its ok but if you want to discuss a topic with me, don't bury your head in the sand.

Maybe that drives AP players and VB players wild.

Rg what makes you think we can't just use typical systems too, if they worked? There are more holes in your logic but I'm not interested.

[RouletteGhost]

Perhaps my definition of “works” is different then yours LOL

Daily profits define “works” for me

I know what you mean when you say “works”. Sorry not all of us have the time for AP

[Steve]

And rg, remember back when mpr started......

All the big talkers bragging about wins in real casinos tanked. The difference was everyone could see. The result was some of them began criticizing the game, calling it rigged etc. One even left to parx. One of the losing players complaining was notto. A man with lots of accounts and a combined overall result of loss.... just like the other big talkers.

Do i particularly care? No. You just might want to look at the bigger picture and not be so naive.

You might understand better if you read the link i sent, with an open mind.

My definition of "works" is the more you play, the more you win. "Works" does not mean sometimes wins, sometimes loses, but it's easier to focus if the wins and forget the losses.

Your definition of "works" applies to random bets too. And random bets is exactly what most systems are.  There might be deluded logic to the bet selection, but you still end up with the same frequency of wins. Nothing changes. I'm not sure why you still don't understand this.

[The General]

Ok...I am going to throw in a marketing term that most probably wont know. It is "econometrics"

Econometrics is the study of the implications of a marketing drive or push, after the event, to see if your efforts have yielded better sales, or better communication or less confusion on the website etc. Depends on what the goal was by doing the marketing push.

The push here from Steve and Caleb is to educate people and point out the error of their ways.

Its been an intense campaign and now we need to run some econometrics.

I think the best way would be for Steve and Caleb to stop commenting for a week or 2 and if its been successful, we will start to see new and old posters thinking differently in their posts. looking to improve bet selection....looking for ways to improve the odds etc

If they are still posting like someone who is slow or a retard (not my words) then its a fail.

On finding a fail in econometrics, you change tack, or completly switch stratedgy. You DO NOT ignore the results because you dont like the answer.

And the biggie.....you really dont continue the same strategy knowing it failed or its personal, or has alterior motives other than "educating people"

If I was your manager, I would be looking for ROI for all the time and effort you 2 have invested in this "educational process"

Will you try that?   NOPE!!!

Turner,

Political correctness is nauseating and ineffective after a while.   Ignorance can be contagious and a hug isn't the cure for it.  The facts, logic, and common sense are a more effective treatment.   ( not calling anyone ignorant)

[Turner]

Turner,

Political correctness is nauseating and ineffective after a while.   Ignorance can be contagious and a hug isn't the cure for it.  The facts, logic, and common sense are a more effective treatment.   ( not calling anyone ignorant)

Nothing politically incorrect about giving a teaching and measuring its effectiveness
It's the difference between being an author and having a buy now button on Amazon and being a Mormon and practically having the pamphlet pushed down your throat
You are using the Mormon model BTW

You can have the best content in the world ( and yours is a 9.5) but if your delivery is bad ( and yours is a 1) no one listens.
Rather like you are gonna do right after reading this

BTW.....the 1 was for comedy effect.....cos you are funny