House Edge Don't Matter

[Steve]

Actually i think the lowest variance you can get, and still profit, is betting 35 numbers.

You will almost always profit short term.

No matter what you do in roulette, if you take a shortcut, you need to pay for it somewhere. In this case, the price is small wins with possibility of large losses.

Reducing variance is really over rated. What matters is the discrepancy between odds and payouts. Or more specifically probability vs payouts.

One reason why gut and repeaters fail is they don't change probability. Why would the wheel care what it spun previously? Why would the probabilities suddenly change for you?

Don't get stuck in the "events must happen" nonsense. Sure, eventually black will spin after a streak of reds. But its meaningless. The probabilities still haven't changed. It's all in your head.

Once you understand the real problem with roulette is unfair payouts, you understand you must increase accuracy of predictions. Then you know to test a system, you need only test to see if its bet selection does that. Don't test over just a few spins. Test as much as you can. The more spins the better. An amateur response would be "but we will never play that many spins"

If you understand better, you know past spins have no connection to future spins on a random wheel. So turbos talk is waffle. He hasnt changed probability. And he isnt predicting hit numbers because there is no connection. Its very easy to disprove his hype but he just spoke trash when cornered. He still has some inexperienced players fooled.

[Joe]

What you are talking about is finding an approach with more stable results.

I suppose you could put it like that but what it amounts to is reducing the variance. I'm not talking about doing that by betting more numbers, but reducing it for any fixed bet. For each bet in roulette there is a standard variance, but take any bet, say a dozen; would it be possible to reduce the variance for a dozen but not at the same time get an edge?  The variance being smaller means less dispersion, which means both shorter losing runs and shorter winning runs, so you haven't gained an edge. The expectation is still negative but you could make steady profits with a progression because it will never bust (assuming the variance is reduced enough).

These plots will explain it better I hope. This first one shows the distribution of wins and losses for two systems, green and purple. They could be any systems, but they both bet the same quantity of numbers, be it even chances, streets, whatever.  The green system has a higher edge than the purple system because the mean of it is centred on 1, but the purple system's mean is centred on 0. That means you will break even playing purple and make a profit playing green. However the variance is the same for both (they are the same width) so bankroll fluctuations will be equally volatile, meaning the same size peaks and drawdowns.



In this plot the mean is the same for both, zero. But the variance of the green system is higher than the variance for the purple system (the curve is wider). The mean is the edge so it means that you will break even for both systems but the volatility of the purple system is less than the green system.

[Joe]

Joe, I don't see how you can control the variance? Perhaps you could post a couple of examples?

Personally I'm sceptical, and I don't have any examples to give you. Some claim it can be done. But that's nothing strange in forums. ;-)

There's a thread by a guy named Nickmsi on the betselection.cc forum. He reckons it can be done and gives some examples.
link:s://betselection.cc/roulette-forum/use-mathstatistics-to-beat-roulettebaccarat-part-2/

[The General]

In gambling, variance equates to your luck.

Claiming to control variance is like claiming that you can control luck.

[falkor2k15]

Personally I'm sceptical, and I don't have any examples to give you. Some claim it can be done. But that's nothing strange in forums. ;-)

There's a thread by a guy named Nickmsi on the betselection.cc forum. He reckons it can be done and gives some examples.
link:s://betselection.cc/roulette-forum/use-mathstatistics-to-beat-roulettebaccarat-part-2/

He got it wrong - the true results are break even:
BBB 0
BBR 0
BRB -1
RBB -1
BRR 1
RBR -1
RRB 0
RRR 2

[Joe]

Claiming to control variance is like claiming that you can control luck.

I can control my luck by betting more numbers or betting for longer. ;-)

[Steve]

Reducing variance is not changing luck. It is just making results more predictable. I dont mean predictable like increasing accuracy of predictions. I mean your bankroll will not fluctuate as wildly.

[Scarface]

Reducing variance is not changing luck. It is just making results more predictable. I dont mean predictable like increasing accuracy of predictions. I mean your bankroll will not fluctuate as wildly.

That's a good thing

[Steve]

Generally yes, but it still doesnt change your gradually eroding bankroll.

[Joe]

I wrote a little program which generates some stats based on the edge and how many numbers you bet. I've started a website where all my future programs can be downloaded from. There isn't much there at the moment but I will be adding stuff regularly over the coming months.

link:://:.roulettecoder.com/freeware.html

[Roulettebeater]

hi joecoder... joe the coder 

[Mako]

Awesome joe, love these little quick programs. 

[Scarface]

Learn to beat a wheel without zeros, or you'll never have a chance. When variance turns against you, what options do you have?  Stop loss.  Change bet selection/ system.  Play less numbers.  Do something different, or go down with the ship.

Playing more numbers with a steep progression is not the answer. 

[Steve]

The only time the house edge doesn't matter is when you win more than you lose. Thats done by more accurate bet selection.

It can't be done with progression because thats just different size bets on different spins. Sometimes you get lucky and win back losses, sometimes you lose even more.

Avoiding variance is impossible.

Stop loss is just avoiding further losses by stopping play.

If your system works in the first place, the more you play the more you win, and stopping play is stopping profit.

[RouletteGhost]

a system working is relative

a stop loss can make winning systems for many people