EC/STREETS

[wiggy]

Here is something interesting that I was playing around with last night when I was experimenting with the EC's and the streets.
I was looking at LOW/HIGH as an EC bet and wondering how I could incorporate the streets so that I could reduce the bet. To be honest, it's not always a good idea because higher variance on a bad run can cause a bad loss. However, I did notice the following which might be worth a bit of further research...….

Mark the streets as they come out.
When you get down to the last 4 absent streets, check to see if more than half of them (so either a ratio of 3/1 or 4/0) are in either the LOW side or the HIGH side.
If you find a situation where the ratio is 3/1 or 4/0 bet for the opposite (either LOW or HIGH) of the higher ratio.

So in the example from the following chart, the streets 5,6,7 and 10 are the first 4 absent streets. This is a ratio of 2/2 and so there can be no bet. Further down, you can see the absent streets are 1,10,11 and 12. So this is a ratio of 3/1 and because the ratio is 3/1 in favour of HIGH, I will bet for the opposite EC which is LOW. In this chart, I had 5 wins and 2 losses. All my tests showed positive results.

cheers

[ozon]

A very interesting concept.
For tracking, you only use Excel, or some other tracker that shows us the oldest 4 streety on rolling basics?
If this is not a problem, can you tell us how long the tests were of this selection?
Are the results still positive in the longer game?

[wiggy]

Ozon, I did some more tests and it failed! My ego gets the better of me from time to time and I still think I can defeat random. 
A bit of fun but ultimately a waste of time.

cheers

[wiggy]

It's too easy to get tricked by the variance sometimes and think you can take advantage.

Look at the following from some baccarat software I test with...….

Runs of 1 = 50%
runs of 2 = 25%
runs of 3 = 12.5%
runs of 4 = 6.25%

Now in just one shoe, the runs of 4 vary wildly as you can see here.
B,B,B,B came once for 1.89%
B,P,P,B came six times for 11.32%

The other percentages to the right are what came after the run of 4 (either B or P)
So after B,B,P,P Only the Bank appeared 4 times. Never a P after B,B,P,P.
You could wait for a run of 4 and only bet what has previously followed, you get some nice runs that way, but once again, does anybody think it will hold up long-term?