***DRAGON's TREASURE***

[ignatus]

Calculating now, what we got?  44/50 Games won That IS an 88% winrate

Calculating of profits/losses (using Mako's MM, a 1250u BR) we've got;

Games lost
6*1250=7500

Games won
44*500=22000

Net Profit = +14500u

[Mako]

Since you're doing so much high BR testing Ignatus,  I switched to handling the "hit and run" effort for the people with smaller BRs, or those who don't want as much exposure, and so far here are the results:

TARGET STOPLOSS: +75u / -300u
WINS: 30
LOSSES: 4
AVG # OF SPINS PER ATTEMPT: 29
NET UNITS WON: +1638u (+2,786u / -1148u)

So the smaller scale version also has a high win rate it turns out, even with a limited downside and not having to deep dive into the BR to sustain the session. 

And again, the expected hitrate for these 8 numbers is around 21.6% based on the odds, yet in the small sample of 2500 spins I've done total on it the hitrate has come in just above 30%...

Really good one Ignatus, like it.

[ignatus]

So the smaller scale version also has a high win rate it turns out, even with a limited downside and not having to deep dive into the BR to sustain the session. 

And again, the expected hitrate for these 8 numbers is around 21.6% based on the odds, yet in the small sample of 2500 spins I've done total on it the hitrate has come in just above 30%...

Really good one Ignatus, like it.

Great, thanks mako,  But i really hope you mean "8 splits" and not "8 numbers" ....:S

[Mako]

Great, thanks mako,  But i really hope you mean "8 splits" and not "8 numbers" ....:S

Yes, replace numbers with splits   

I tried something yesterday that I'm sure you did also, I covered the 2nd Dozen with a break-even bet (half of whatever the splits were at).  It hurt profits too much, but it did make it a bit safer. 

In the end I decided it wasn't worth it, just because you're not playing this for a slow grind, eventually you'd lose as the progression would get too high above 300 spins.  That 2nd Dozen sure pisses you off though when it hits 7-8 in a row...

[ignatus]

That 2nd Dozen sure pisses you off though when it hits 7-8 in a row...

Yes, i know, but in *most cases* it will recover just fine using a the +1/-1 progression, using a "normal" negative progression, it would bust beyond 9-10 losses (and require a larger BR), as you saw in my earlier testings,..

[daveylibra]

MAKO, I like your post. Short sessions of around 29 spins would be ideal. Who can play 300 spin sessions in reality?

So, it deserves more testing this way. How are you doing it, manually?
If someone can rx this I would like to run loads of tests with small bankroll/stoploss parameters.

And Iggy, how can you say it is boring? If it could possibly profit, within a sensible amount of spins, that is anything but boring...

[blueman]

Since you're doing so much high BR testing Ignatus,  I switched to handling the "hit and run" effort for the people with smaller BRs, or those who don't want as much exposure, and so far here are the results:

TARGET STOPLOSS: +75u / -300u
WINS: 30
LOSSES: 4
AVG # OF SPINS PER ATTEMPT: 29
NET UNITS WON: +1638u (+2,786u / -1148u)

So the smaller scale version also has a high win rate it turns out, even with a limited downside and not having to deep dive into the BR to sustain the session. 

And again, the expected hitrate for these 8 numbers is around 21.6% based on the odds, yet in the small sample of 2500 spins I've done total on it the hitrate has come in just above 30%...

Really good one Ignatus, like it.

Mako, something new? You're still testing/play the system?

[houseworx]

how big distance is tested with this kind of thing? you written 50 games played, it means 150-200bets in "game/session/period" x 50, its ~maximum 10 000 bets?
problem is that even on 100 000 bets with that kind of winning percentage, you can get "upswing" and next 100 000 bets you will be where you need to be.  so with that kind of distances playd you will never know "system winrate"

[houseworx]

link:s://imgur.com/a/PAzl91X

there you can see sample, first 2k bets you can think, we are profiting more than losing, but after 8k bets we can see different things, but yes, after next 100k bets it can be more different

[ignatus]

link:s://imgur.com/a/PAzl91X

there you can see sample, first 2k bets you can think, we are profiting more than losing, but after 8k bets we can see different things, but yes, after next 100k bets it can be more different

well? i don't know how you did that chart, if you coded it....anyway, a positive trend for 2000 spins, i would call that a VERY good system,...

most systems can't keep a positive trend for more than a couple of hundred spins (in best cases)..

[Face]

Where is Montanos? 

[daveylibra]

MAKO, Just to pick up on something....

In your short-run tests, stop-loss=300, losses=4. Total loss=1148.  But 1148/4=287.

Do we assume that we stop the session BEFORE the bet that would take us over the -300 mark?
Also, have you done more testing? I'm interested as this looks promising....

[Mako]

Mako, something new? You're still testing/play the system?

MAKO, Just to pick up on something....

In your short-run tests, stop-loss=300, losses=4. Total loss=1148.  But 1148/4=287.

Do we assume that we stop the session BEFORE the bet that would take us over the -300 mark?
Also, have you done more testing? I'm interested as this looks promising....

I need to get back to doing daily tests on this, forgot about it. 

I'm suffering from Shiny Object Syndrome, I've accrued too many methods that have passed small spin samples, and then trying to see how each one does over thousands of actual spins is distracting me from those that have actually done well previously...

Meanwhile the repeater system I actually play at B&M when I go does the best of them all, and yet I devote no time to honing and refining it even more.

System addict, lol.

To answer your questions, blueman, I believe I last tested this one at 40 wins and 7 losses, with a profit slightly higher than I last posted, it had treaded water a bit the final 10 attempts I think, which is likely why I got distracted away from it.

Davey, yes correct, for a stoploss I try to get as close as possible to the limit, and occaisionally if the betting level is close to it (like say 310u for the next bet loss), I'll exceed it that one final try.  I would never go more than say +5% higher than the stoploss though, so a 315u limit would be my max max here. 

[Mako]

Typo above, meant to say 34 wins, 7 losses, not 40 wins and 7 losses, hence the "treading water" comment. 

[houseworx]

well? i don't know how you did that chart, if you coded it....anyway, a positive trend for 2000 spins, i would call that a VERY good system,...

most systems can't keep a positive trend for more than a couple of hundred spins (in best cases)..

heh, iv made many systems that can be in profit after 100k bets with deviations +/- no more than 1000 units from break even point, BUT after next 900k bets system will be below 0. another type ones can survive any swing till rng luck will be near 99.99%, but there bankrolls are need much much higher(because is low winning percentage systems, and there variance can be more hurting)

so yes, maybe for ~50% winning chance 2x payout, 100k can be some kind of minimum distance, but for lower percentage is needed to bigger samples, like for 1% wining chance 1 000 000 bets is minimum distance to watch results, imo  (im talking about propability side for each winning percentage, deviations and how rng can turn variance not in your side some period)