Repeaters,progression,lots of numbers, profit YUP! AP, Computers NOPE!

[Chris555p]

Nimo

That's extremely good results. Well done

[Bigbroben]

Got up to 11 misses with nrs from random.org in 100k spins.

So I thought I'd dissecate the results with my goddess Excel She.
This was interesting.

I sorted how many numbers were in the last 37 spins and how many spins it took to get a hit.

Hits took from 1 to 11 spins.  There were 63783 hits in 99963 (100k-37) spins.  Lower than I thought if we consider an average of 24 nrs in 37 spins.  Ok.


Distribution of spins to hit according to how many nrs in last 37 spins goes like this:


This is a lot of nrs and real high variation.  So I evened out to express those nrs in percentage of occurences.
So when there were x nrs in last 37 spins, what percentage hit on first spin, second...


I know this is lots of gaphs, but I'm going somewhere with this.

So I compared these stats with what theory suggests.  In theory, example, when betting on 24 nrs, a hit on first spin comes 24/37 times, (1-24/37)*24/37 times on 2nd spin, so on.

There was a HUGE difference between theory and stats.  Next graph shows the difference on first hit:


Let's see the overall difference in all spins:


So, bluntly speaking, there was an advantage betting for a repeater if there is less than 24 nrs in the last 37 spins, an advantage betting for unhits if there is more than 24 nrs in 37 spins.


Is this the Trot going on?

[Bigbroben]

A second set of 100k spins (from random.org) showed same results.

Same also with Excel random function


Ok....

If anyone wants to double check, I'll gladly share the Excel file.

[The General]

So, bluntly speaking, there was an advantage betting for a repeater if there is less than 24 nrs in the last 37 spins, an advantage betting for unhits if there is more than 24 nrs in 37 spins.

So what! If the chi square is high, then the numbers that are hitting the most and even sometimes hit frequency distribution betting will show as a winner.  It happens, it's a normal random fluctuation that happens even in random numbers.  The problem is that you can't side step probability to exploit it, and know when the chi square is going to be high enough to work. Hind sight is 20/20.  In short, you're trying to side step probability, but you can't in the random game.  However the live and biased wheel is something entirely different.

[Nimo]

Thanks Caleb for your insight.  However I wrote in the original post a warning that shows this isn't for everyone so play at your own risk.


Here it is again. 


It has everything going against it, repeaters, progression, many numbers played so I guess all you AP and math guys please don't look, this isn't for you.
   

It has everything going against it, the warning is there in black and white.  You are AP guy, so this isn't for you.  I don't profess to be a roulette guru, I just share what works for me.  If I'm ever beside you in a B&M I'll gladly sit back and watch a master at work then buy you a dinner for the honour and privilege. 

[Nimo]

A second set of 100k spins (from random.org) showed same results.

Same also with Excel random function


Ok....

If anyone wants to double check, I'll gladly share the Excel file.

I'm not sure if everyone is playing progression correctly or if you factored it in this way in your calculations but if there is a loss on first bet, I don't necessarily add the number that just came up, I play the last unique hit numbers on the tracker, it could be 24 numbers first bet, then I add the number to the tracker and the first spun number drops off so my second bet is also 24 numbers, but with a progression added.  This keeps the numbers that you have to bet on in a more reasonably level.

[ozon]

Bigbroben
I do not know if I have interpreted the last table well.
If we assume that we have less than 24 numbers in the 37 spin cycle.
Playing only 1 spin on the numbers that had a hit, we have an edge?

[RayManZ]

I you play on a rolling bases. Like nimo does.

So if you are below the 24 mark. Bet for a repeat for all the numbers you have.

Got 20 numbers out of 37? Bet those 20.
Got 21 numbers out of 37? Bet those 21.

On a rolling base your numbers will change. And you will always bet the first spin. So you will have an edge if the stats are correct.

Got more than 24 number? Bet the 13 that are unhit.

Got 25 numbers out of 37? Bet those 12 unhit.
Got 26 numbers out of 37? Bet those 11 unhit.

That should give an edge.

Use a calculator to see how much you need to bet in order to hit a new high. Always aim for a new high every bet. That is what nimo does as far as i can understand.

[ozon]

Raymanz
I thought exactly the same, even playing only numbers below 24 on rolling bases, we will always play only once after driving below this limit 24 hit

Now we only need a tracker, showing numbers and distribution of hit and unhits always last 37 numbers.

And we can play

[ayk]

Raymanz if you play this way it can be very dangerous. It's not uncommon to see unhit/hit ratio hower at 12/24 .worst case is like your always betting on wrong side for every 24 to 25 and back switch.

[RayManZ]

Raymanz if you play this way it can be very dangerous. It's not uncommon to see unhit/hit ratio hower at 12/24 .worst case is like your always betting on wrong side for every 24 to 25 and back switch.

It's just a suggestion based on the data. It could work, but it should be tested first.

Maybe don't bet on 23,24,25 hit. So you have a save margin. Anything under or above is a bet for a repeater of unhit. Maybe it could even work flat bet. Who knows.

[ayk]

If you have plenty of time maybe wait for 19 hits in your cycle and bet the remaining 18 unhit? Facing EC conditions against the 24/12 ratio. I think I did that one year ago but not followed the idea in detail.

[Wally Gator]

Is this the Trot going on?

Winkel and Notto have been saying this for years ... depending on your own interpretation of the information, there is much that can be used for creating your own strategy if you don’t like theirs.

[ozon]

If the data is good it should work on rolling bases, always last 37 numbers as an independent cycle
And we only play the options for the first spin when the ratio goes below 24 hits in the cycle.
We do not wait if the edge is, playing 23 hits already we have an advantage.
I guess there is no need to play these options above 24 hits because in the first spin there is no edge until the second spin and the next .

The only option that enters the game is flatbet, if there is no edge, then nothing can save it

[winkel]

I you play on a rolling bases. Like nimo does.

So if you are below the 24 mark. Bet for a repeat for all the numbers you have.

Got 20 numbers out of 37? Bet those 20.
Got 21 numbers out of 37? Bet those 21.

On a rolling base your numbers will change. And you will always bet the first spin. So you will have an edge if the stats are correct.

Got more than 24 number? Bet the 13 that are unhit.

Got 25 numbers out of 37? Bet those 12 unhit.
Got 26 numbers out of 37? Bet those 11 unhit.

That should give an edge.

Use a calculator to see how much you need to bet in order to hit a new high. Always aim for a new high every bet. That is what nimo does as far as i can understand.

It´s too good to be true (from an old song)

What you have to know: If you have 24 (or 12) numbers to bet your hit rate will be 24/37 (12/37) you don´t change the odds.

What you can do is: make a statistic of the bets you have watched.

And then:
If the hit rate should be 24/37 and your stats show 20/37 then bet flat til you are in profit. Then stop and wait for next possible turning point.
If the hit rate should be 12/37 and your statistic show 15/37 then bet opposite and also flat bet until you are in profit. Then stop and wait for next possible turning point.

Or: If you don´t wanna bet too many numbers: If your stats say don´t bet 24 numbers then bet the opposite 12
If you you don´t mind betting many numbers: If your stats say don´t bet 12 numbers, then bet the opposite 24 numbers.
These examples can be transferred to any other count (23 vs 13; 20 vs 17; and so on)

OR: Listen to your gut or precognition abilities or the prayer you sent to universe.