One for the math guys HELP please????

[bikemotorman]

In the game of baccarat which is 50/50 let us say we win 51 percent of the hands we play would using a 1 2 3 progression hurt or help your profitability as compared to flat betting.

I am only saying if we win 51 percent of the games we play, I am really bad at MATH so some help would be GREAT guys........................1-2-3 progression.

     Thanks

         Stuart 

[The General]

In the game of baccarat which is 50/50 let us say we win 51 percent of the hands we play would using a 1 2 3 progression hurt or help your profitability as compared to flat betting.

I am only saying if we win 51 percent of the games we play, I am really bad at MATH so some help would be GREAT guys........................1-2-3 progression.

     Thanks

         Stuart

I sent you a PM response.

[nottophammer]

General, instead of PM

Show us your superior math

[Joe]

Stuart, I'm assuming you're talking into account the fact that the banker bet is more likely to win, but this doesn't give you an edge because of the commission. Anyway assuming 1:1 odds and that you have a 51% chance of winning, here's a chart showing the difference in results using flat bets and 3 progressions. I coded both positive and negative 1,2,3 progressions (green & blue lines) and red is flat betting. The purple line is using kelly betting which is the optimum "scientific" way to bet. It's very simple and for this bet and edge you just bet 2% of your bank (this is rounded up to whole number stakes).

There's really no contest. There are two vertical scales because the kelly betting results dwarf the other progressions. The scale for the kelly bet is on the right side of the chart. We're talking about an order of magnitude difference here; approximately 10 times better results than for the other progressions. ;-).

If you don't use kelly you're better off using either of the 1,2,3 progressions, which track each other pretty closely.

[bikemotorman]

Wow, I have never heard of this KELLY method JOE could you explain how it works in our Baccarat session say we want to profit 75.00 dollars a session??

Stuart

[Joe]

There are a lot of sites which explain it, just google "Kelly criterion". Here's one :

link:s://:.topratedbettingsites.co.uk/guide/kelly-criterion/

It's very easy to work out your bet size using the simple formula, the hard part is first finding a true advantage and then calculating it.

say we want to profit 75.00 dollars a session?

It doesn't really work like this. There's no guarantee that you will make X dollars per session, but as long as you have the edge it will maximize your profits over time.

Kelly is an example of percent of bank staking which is used a lot in sports betting. It's safer and more efficient than most other progressions.
link:s://:.tippingsports.com/betting/percent_of_betting_bank

[Blueprint]

Stu,
The bet will fluctuate based on your bank and hit rate. 

For example, if I know I win 58% of sports bets then my next bet is 11.8% of my bank.

[bikemotorman]

And I thought the Six Point Divisor was a bit hard lol ok I will read it now.

Stuart

[bikemotorman]

Ok I read it and have no idea how to use it, baccarat is a almost 50/50 game so how would I figure that out lol.


I need a drink lol............................let me go grab my SOYMILK lol.

[Joe]

Stu, it's really easy, honest!

Forget about the formula, all you do is to take your starting bank and the first bet is 2% of it. So if it's $100 your first bet is 0.02 * 100 = $2

Suppose you win this bet, your bank is now $102. Just do the same again, 2% of $102 is 0.02 * 102 = 2.04. Since you can't bet $2.04 you just round it up or down. If the result is more than $2.5 you round it up to $3, and if it's less you round down to $2, so the next bet is also $2.
Suppose you win the next bet, your bank is now $104. To calculate the next stake you just do the same again (it never changes!), so your stake is 0.02 * 104 = $2.08, so round down to $2. Since you have an edge your bank will soon get to the point where your stake increase to $3, then $4, etc, but if you hit a losing run the stake will go down because the stakes are always proportional to the size of your bank. See how it works?
It's much much easier than the 6 point divisor plan. Whatever your bank is you just multiply by 0.02 to get the next stake, that's it. ;-)

You only have to use the formula if your edge and/or the odds of the bet changes.

[The General]

You can't really use the Kelly unless you have the edge.

Edge/expectancy.  If you don't have the edge then the Kelly basically says not to bet, because you would need to bet negative amounts of money... which isn't possible.

Go find the edge.  Read Dr. Elliot Jacobson.  There are a few different ways to get it.

[Joe]

I know that, but he says he has an edge. Whether he actually does or not is not my concern.
Supposing he doesn't, % of bank is still safer than a negative progression. ;-)

[bikemotorman]

WOW, THAT IS WAY MORE EASY THEN THE SIX POINT.

JUST TWO PERCENT OF YOUR BANK, I GUESS WE CAN ALSO SAY OUR DAILY BANK IF WE WANT TO JUST RISK 500 DOLLARS FOR THE DAY.


THANKS JOE

[bikemotorman]

Here are a couple of guys who discuss how to use the Kelly concept for options in the stock market.

link:s://:.youtube.com/watch?v=iykpeZtoNIk

Joe how did you come up with the 2 percent for my example of Baccarat and winning 51 percent of our games??


Stuart

[Joe]

Joe how did you come up with the 2 percent for my example of Baccarat and winning 51 percent of our games?

Stu, the formula is :

f = [ p(b + 1) - 1 ] / b

The symbols stand for these things :

f = fraction of bankroll you bet (this is what you want to know)
p = probability of your bet winning (you said 0.51)
b = odds (payout), which is 1:1, so b = 1

Put the numbers into the formula :

f = [ 0.51 * (1 + 1) - 1 ] / 1
  = [ 0.51 * 2 - 1 ] / 1
  = [ 1.02 - 1 ] / 1
  = 0.02