Maximum Drawdown Flat Betting The Avant Dernier For 1 Million Spins.

[Let Me Win]

I would like someone who has coding skills to check something for me. 

I am willing to make a small donation to your PayPal account for your trouble.

I would like to know over one million spins of a zero wheel (can be RNG) what is the largest drawdown that occurs if one flat bets the avant dernier or in English the last but one.

I also want to know the largest drawdown if one were to simply just bet Red for 1 million spins and the same again just betting Black for 1 million spins.

Example:

Spin 1:  Red    (no bet)
Spin 2:  Black  (no bet)

Spin 3: Bet Red

And so on for 1 million spins.  Zero is recorded as 50% loss (‘La Partage’ rules) and ignored for the purposes of tracking.

The purpose of this test is to discover if maximum drawdowns are less than if one were to just bet Red for 1 million spins or Black for 1 million spins.

Logically the results should all be more or less the same but I have a hunch that staking using the avant dernier will prove to be far superior.

[Normy2000]

You want it for Rx?

[Let Me Win]

Oh, yes please.  That would be perfect.   Thanks.

[Joe]

I think it would be more meaningful to code it as 10,000 x 100 spin sessions rather than a continuous session of 1m spins because in that case the maximum drawdown would be very close to the expected loss of 27,000 units for all 3 bet selections.  So for each selection method you would have 10,000 sessions and then you could compare how many sessions for each selection had a drawdowns within a certain range. Better yet, you could do a statistical test for equality of variances; no need for anywhere near a million spin test in that case.

[Normy2000]

Here you go... 

[reveal]
system "Let me win"
// Coded by: nOrMy2o0o

method "main"
begin
    while starting a new session
    begin
        copy list [1,3,5,7,9,12,14,16,18,19,21,23,25,27,30,32,34,36]to record "RED#" layout
        copy list [2,4,6,8,10,11,13,15,17,20,22,24,26,28,29,31,33,35]to record "BLACK#" layout
        copy list

• to record "zero" layout
      end
      // general tracking
          Locate Number Backward 2 spins from the Last Number to Record "bet-number" layout
         
          if Record "bet-number" layout is found in record "zero" layout
          begin
              if Record "lastbet" layout is found in record "RED#" layout
              begin
                  put 1 on red
              end
              if Record "lastbet" layout is found in record "BLACK#" layout
              begin
                  put 1 on black
              end
          end
  
          if Record "bet-number" layout is found in record "RED#" layout
          begin
              put 1 on red
              copy record "bet-number" layout to record "lastbet" layout
          end
          if Record "bet-number" layout is found in record "BLACK#" layout
          begin
              put 1 on black
              copy record "bet-number" layout to record "lastbet" layout
          end
  end
  
  [/reveal]

[Let Me Win]

Thanks, but  I got an error message at line 10 - 11   Action keyword expected after  Copy List

Does it work OK your end?

[Let Me Win]

Hi Joe

The expected loss won't be 27,000 units because we are playing en prison rules 

But your logic of course is the same expected loss 13,500

But my hunch is that the avant dernier will perform better than the expected loss.

Of course I am probably completely wrong but I just wanted to prove it to myself.

[Normy2000]

I think it was the Reveal option, try the attach file instead.

[Let Me Win]

Thanks that works apart from the bet selection is sometimes wrong

If you spin you will see....

It must always bet the same colour as the last but one previous decision.

In other words the patterns that kill it are:

RED RED BLACK BLACK RED RED BLACK BLACK  and lose every bet.

RED RED RED BLACK BLACK BLACK RED RED RED BLACK BLACK BLACK and we shall lose two bets and win once.

It will be interesting to see at what point the flat bet drawdown limit is that it can never recover from.

[Normy2000]

on line 13:     Locate Number Backward 2 spins from the Last Number to Record "bet-number" layout
replace the 2 by a 1, it should be ok

[Let Me Win]

Perfect now thank you very much.

[Normy2000]

You are welcome. 

[Let Me Win]

Recovered from - 105 units flat betting.

[Bigbroben]

You'd like it for Excel?

[Bigbroben]

I would like someone who has coding skills to check something for me. 

I am willing to make a small donation to your PayPal account for your trouble.

I've given up on receiving donations since these promises never were fulfilled 2 in 2.  !!!!

So anyways, just spent a half hour doing the following attached Excel file.  Choose type of EC in the blue cell, enter or copy/paste nrs in proper column.
It's not a million spins, but 10k.