What's my Edge?

[MoneyT101]

I saw a few post asking about my last math topic which i had deleted cause i didnt get a response.  Since some ppl were interested,  Here it is with 100 spins.....

Spin1   np   
Spin2   np   
Spin3   np   
Spin4   np   
Spin5   -1   
Spin6   np   
Spin7   np   
Spin8   -1   
Spin9   -1   
Spin10   -2   
Spin11   np   
Spin12   np   
Spin13   np   
Spin14   np   
Spin15   np   
Spin16   -1   
Spin17   -1   
Spin18   -2   12
Spin19   np   
Spin20   np   
Spin21   -1   12
Spin22   np   
Spin23   np   
Spin24   np   
Spin25   -2   12
Spin26   np   
Spin27   np   
Spin28   -1   
Spin29   -1   
Spin30   -2   
Spin31   np   
Spin32   np   
Spin33   np   
Spin34   -1   
Spin35   -1   12
Spin36   np   
Spin37   -1   12
Spin38   np   
Spin39   -1   
Spin40   -1   
Spin41   -1   12
Spin42   np   
Spin43   -1   
Spin44   -2   
Spin45   np   
Spin46   -2   
Spin47   np   
Spin48   -1   12
Spin49   np   
Spin50   -1   
Spin51   -2   
Spin52   -2   
Spin53   -3   
Spin54   -3   
Spin55   np   
Spin56   -1   12
Spin57   np   
Spin58   -1   
Spin59   -2   
Spin60   -1   
Spin61   -3   12
Spin62   np   
Spin63   -1   
Spin64   -2   
Spin65   -1   
Spin66   -1   
Spin67   -2   12
Spin68   np   
Spin69   np   
Spin70   np   
Spin71   -1   
Spin72   -2   
Spin73   np   
Spin74   -2   
Spin75   -2   
Spin76   -4   12
Spin77   np   
Spin78   np   
Spin79   np   
Spin80   np   
Spin81   -1   12
Spin82   -1   
Spin83   -1   
Spin84   -1   
Spin85   -1   
Spin86   -1   12
Spin87   -1   
Spin88   -2   
Spin89   -2   
Spin90   -2   
Spin91   -1   
Spin92   -1   
Spin93   -2   
Spin94   np   
Spin95   np   
Spin96   -1   12
Spin97   np   
Spin98   -1   
Spin99   -1   
Spin100   np   

Total Profit 83

np means no play
-1 means i played 1 street
-2 means i played 2 streets
etc

12 to the right means i won

My questions...

1. how would you calculate an edge?
2. The spins i did not play were used to decide if a play was available.  Do i also count the spins i did not play in the calculations?

[luckyfella]

The calculation of edge is the expected value(EV) calculation -

EV = [p(win) - p(loss)] x 100%

stated in %

where p is the probability of the event

[MoneyT101]

The calculation of edge is the expected value(EV) calculation -

EV = [p(win) - p(loss)] x 100%

stated in %

where p is the probability of the event

This can only be done if it’s a set number being used per spin.  But my bet is changing between 1 street to 4 streets.

So how would you calculate it? Using the ev calculation

[luckyfella]

You calculate them separately

EV1 = [p(win1) - p(loss1)] x 100%
EV2 = [p(win2) - p(loss1)] x 100%
......and so on

Each different bets of 1, 2, 3, 4 are separate giving different edge

If you are looking at the entire system as a whole then you have to define clearly your standard play session

How much bets you lay out vs how much total payments you receive in each session over a large population to get the average number

What you want to determine is for every $1 bet what is the probability of win, and the probability of loss for a standard session played to calculate the systems edge as a whole

[Herby]

First you have to identify all states of your game where you can say :

- I lost  (calculate the probability to loose) at this point
- I won  (calculate the probability to win) at this point

Like luckyfella described

[Joe]

Personally I prefer to calculate it using the definition often used by sports bettors, it's called the Yield and the formula is very simple :

Yield  = Profit/Loss / Total money staked

So just work out the profit or loss for any sequence of bets and then add up all the bets you made (in terms of stakes, so it doesn't matter if you used a progression.) Divide the first by the second. Easy to calculate in a spreadsheet. For your sequence I made it a total of 85 units staked, so the yield (edge) is 83/85 = 97.65%

[MoneyT101]

First you have to identify all states of your game where you can say :

- I lost  (calculate the probability to loose) at this point
- I won  (calculate the probability to win) at this point

Like luckyfella described

This wont work because the bet range depending on what happening in the game.  so the last few spins wont look the same or the betting. 

[MoneyT101]

Personally I prefer to calculate it using the definition often used by sports bettors, it's called the Yield and the formula is very simple :

Yield  = Profit/Loss / Total money staked

So just work out the profit or loss for any sequence of bets and then add up all the bets you made (in terms of stakes, so it doesn't matter if you used a progression.) Divide the first by the second. Easy to calculate in a spreadsheet. For your sequence I made it a total of 85 units staked, so the yield (edge) is 83/85 = 97.65%

This seems more usable but then we would have to include all spins watched.


-1 = 36
-2 = 18
-3 = 3
-4 = 1

58 bets placed
42 np

[Joe]

Any no bets are just ignored.

[Joe]

-1 = 36
-2 = 18
-3 = 3
-4 = 1

I think you may have misunderstood. You want the total staked, which is (36 * 1) + (18 * 2) + (3 * 3) + (1 * 4) = 85

[Herby]

This wont work because the bet range depending on what happening in the game.  so the last few spins wont look the same or the betting.

My experience: I did lots of more ore less complicated simulations.
It always turns out that there is a finite amount of states with maybe different probabilities to appear.
With a finite amount of states and their probabilities the calculation can be made.

I don't assume that you have infinite possibilities of betting situations.

[Bebediktus3]

how would you calculate an edge?

The calculation of edge is the expected value(EV) calculation -

EV = [p(win) - p(loss)] x 100%

Edge is calculated not like write luckyfella. Every number is like distance from something or position in some specifical time. So to have an edge - you must predict what number will win more often than random. I explained how is possible to calculate if you have an edge or not by distances between the predicted number and the real winning number simply by calculating the distance between your prediction and real number - winner.
9 number distance show absolutely random result So if average distance is near to 9 - you have no edge, no matter even if you won.

[MoneyT101]

My experience: I did lots of more ore less complicated simulations.
It always turns out that there is a finite amount of states with maybe different probabilities to appear.
With a finite amount of states and their probabilities the calculation can be made.

I don't assume that you have infinite possibilities of betting situations.

to many possibilities to go this route, i cant even imagine the amount of numbers to give you an idea.

[MoneyT101]

Edge is calculated not like write luckyfella. Every number is like distance from something or position in some specifical time. So to have an edge - you must predict what number will win more often than random. I explained how is possible to calculate if you have an edge or not by distances between the predicted number and the real winning number simply by calculating the distance between your prediction and real number - winner.
9 number distance show absolutely random result So if average distance is near to 9 - you have no edge, no matter even if you won.

It seems your speaking of something totally different.... in my original post i am using streets

To better understand you......can you give an example of what you mean? 

[Bebediktus3]

in my original post i am using streets

On wheel are no streets, so you bet on numbers. And the ball falls not on the table but on the wheel and is one number which is the winner. So, always before bet, you must think about some number as expected winner and between it and the real winner you can calculate distance on the wheel...
if you want to calculate edge accordingly what you bet and what you won - you can't do that on 100 spins... On 100 spins can be all - you can win where you absolutely not have an edge and can lose where is a huge edge.
At all to think that you have an edge because you won is not right. You win because - have an edge, but not opposite - have an edge because of win.