Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo and biased wheels.

[TwoCatSam]

Victor

In the fifth clip Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo roulette system, the fellow was trying to hit either 8 or 31 and kept hitting the 19 in between them.  So---we are to believe one of two things:  1.  The wheel is biased to the left and right pocket of 19, but not 19 itself, or, 2.  The 19 pocket is a hair smaller and the 8 and 31 are a hair larger as a result.

I find either case impossible to believe.

I believe that tilting a wheel so much as to be visibly noticeable would not change the way numbers are hit.  You still have a rotating device presenting a possible 37 numbers to the path of the falling ball.  I simply don't believe you can predict where that rotor will be and the scatter pattern in time to place the bets.  This brings up a thought experiment.  More on that later..............

Bayes

What is written in a book may or may not be true.

QUESTIONS:

Are the young and old people the same in this movie?
Are they actors or the real people?
Was the movie made as they were actually playing?

Sam

[VLS]

I believe that tilting a wheel so much as to be visibly noticeable would not change the way numbers are hit.  You still have a rotating device presenting a possible 37 numbers to the path of the falling ball.

In the terms of a single spin, you are absolutely right Sam.

That's why plenty of BIASed wheel are quite profitable for the casino and are never removed.
Martingalers won't know what color is next. The overnight chip scatterer won't notice any remarkable difference in the way numbers are spun for more than the usual numbers fall on any other roulette.. Even the sleeper player will see his numbers hit more or less according to the expected values.

...But... The BIAS-play % edge comes from the long-term expectation. You may lose in the short-term due to variance, but if your edge is certainly coming from a physical -donor/+receiver effect, then you are guaranteed to win in the longer term by continuously playing the biased selection.

[VLS]

What is written in a book may or may not be true.

Agreed.

I have the book and the story may be embellished a bit, but the mathematical foundation used by Pelayos (Chi square, 95% averages from computer-generated analysis, etc.) is sound.

QUESTIONS:

Are the young and old people the same in this movie?

Nope

Are they actors or the real people?

Both. There were paid actors hired for the documentary AND members from the Pelayos family.

You can see the actual Gonzalo García-Pelayo talking at his channel: link:://:.youtube.com/user/LOSPELAYOS

This is Gonzalo:

Gonzalo Garcia Pelayo

Was the movie made as they were actually playing?

Sam

No. Those scenes were re-enacted for the documentary.

Regards,
Victor

[Bayes]

Ah Victor, you beat me to it, I was about to say the same thing.  

The effects of bias are cumulative (in terms of the number of spins played), and can be dependent on such things as size/material of ball, humidity, speed at which the ball is released etc, so it's by no means a simple matter to detect bias IF you don't know what to look for. As Victor points out, if a wheel is making money and the bias is small (and/or temporary) it's unlikely to be detected (even by a casino's monitoring equipment - statistical analyses of the wheel performed by this equipment is often fairly crude and many biases go unnoticed, they are "washed out" in the data).

No physical device can ever be PERFECTLY balanced, and it doesn't take too much imbalance to put the odds in your favour.

[Bayes]

Also Sam, don't be thinking so much in terms of whether a wheel is tilted or not. There are many more forms of bias than merely tilt, and all of them can effect where the ball will end up.

[TwoCatSam]

Folks

It's best for me if I just leave this subject alone.  Thanks for your input.

Sam

[Canuck]

I just watched the entire video about the Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo roulette system family and their biased wheel play.

One eternal truth about Roulette that I've had hammered home to me by this very entertaining documentary is that even a biased wheel can go cold. That your system or your numbers can go violently cold. And by the same token, very hot.

What I love about the information garnered from this forum is the Truth ful direction many of the postings make.

I highly recommend any roulette lover to look this up on You Tube.

My best to you,

Canuck