Recovery, new high, using number density instead of progression

[Mako]

Ha, killing it Ben, need to add this to the list of things to try next week. 

[Bigbroben]

Yes!

feek free to try different stuff, different grind methods.
I stayed to flat bet so far , there could be some interesting progs, though.

[Bigbroben]

2 other deep recoveries.
Again, I feel a goal of 100u, stop at 200u below high is safe.

Did not need to play past 30nrs.

[Bigbroben]

Grind it up.
Parts of luck for sure, but too consistent to be only luck?

1u on the nr out, removing the nr on a win.  If 18 or more on a loss, fill the pair, so 1u on 1 or 2 nrs.
Did not reach beyond 22 nrs on that run.

More testing needed for this variante, though.  Still, the grind is at work.

Surprisingly enough, played nrs oscillate from 10 to 20, same as how many hits or repeaters in 37 spins.

All mf flat.
Mmmhhh...

[Mako]

That one looks like your best yet Ben, your tweaks are paying off bigtime.

What's nice about it that stands out from just a cursory glance is how often your original 'vaddi 8' are hitting, which we expected obviously having played around so much with notto's First 10...only your HABS method along with a random pairing application seems to beat every other sort of MM we've tried.

One thing I may try instead of adding the pair #s to total 37, is use Vaddi's actual pairing advice from his thread.  He mentioned in his post the following:

"All the numbers in roulette are connected logically and consecutively. Of course, the inventors of the game have made every effort to confuse the player by rearranging the numbers on the roulette wheel, but don't fall for this deception."

He then goes on to show the 1 | 2,  3 | 4 example of "pairs".

Instead, if we read his words, we understand that the actual pairings he was referring to are wheel-based, and are the following (euro wheel):

0 | 32
32 | 15
15 | 19
19 | 4
4 | 21
21 | 2
2 | 25
25 | 17
17 | 34
34 | 6
6 | 27
27 | 13
13 | 36
36 | 11
11 | 30
30 | 8
8 | 23
23 | 10
10 | 5
5  |24
24 | 16
16 | 33
33 | 1
1  |20
20 | 14
14 | 31
31 | 9
9 | 22
22 | 18
18 | 29
29 | 7
7 | 28
28 | 12
12 | 35
35 | 3
3 | 26
26 | 0

The clockwise neighbor number to the original landed basically. 

Would be worth a shot to see if the hitrate is superior to a random pairing method like the "total 37" version you're using Ben. 

[Bigbroben]

Boy, tough one, but did not bust.

Flat.
Went up to 35 nrs but no loss at that step, otherwise, would have been a stop.
Crossed the new high line with 30nrs.

Took forever, though.
Should see to calculate when it's more paying to restart afresh or to continue.

[Bigbroben]

Again, I feel a goal of 100u, stop at 200u below high is safe.

...so I'll stop right here after a good fight and the high hand.

[Bigbroben]

...so I'll stop right here after a good fight and the high hand.

Wow!  Good call.  Cuz shit happened.

[Bigbroben]

And tonight's game.

5 recoveries, of which only one went past 18 nrs, with 26nrs.
Statistically, if starting with 1nr, adding them as they come, then removing them on a win, 85-86% will see a new high on or before losing with 18 nrs.   This is in line with today's game:  13 new highs or breakevens, 5 recoveries past the 1,2,3,...,8 step, one only past 18 nrs.

From 211u, the step1 failed, step2 failed to recover with 18 or less.  Came the grind: past 18 nrs it's +2nrs on a loss, -1 on a win.  Past 24: +2 on a loss, stay at level until gained more than half of actual played nrs (ex: at 28nrs, 2hits +8, then -1nr.  30nrs: 3 hits +6, then -1nr).
So 4 steps: 1 to 8 nrs, until 18 nrs, until 24 nrs, past 24nrs.

From 211 down to 40.  No stoploss trigger (200u below high).  Recovered and crossed the new high line with 20nrs.  Reset at 1nr on a new high or breakeven to enjoy the 65% times the step 1 is successful. (How can you win 35u if you never bet only 1u? Spin 46).



P.S: I dont claim this is a HG.  It's an alternative to progression.  Recovery process is subjective and can be adapted, particularly step4.

[Bigbroben]

2 more step2s, some more step1s.
305u in almost as many spins. Flat.  200u from high is the stoploss, so 100u locked in.
Not the steepest climb, but seen worse...


Leaving before it gets too nice.

[Bigbroben]

So I ran 100k runs playing the steps 1 and 2 previously mentioned:
Step1 is a hit on or before 8nrs;
Step2 is adding the nrs as they come, removing them on a hit.

In 100k tests, 87,093% reached 0 or higher, so 12,9% never made a new high.  Of these, 65,18% reached >=0 within 8nrs, as expected in the normal repeater distribution.

If playing this way until a loss with 18nrs, so-called Step2 until end:
35,62% only ended >=0.
For the ones ending in negative territory, here is a graph of the end score distribution (Axis X is to be read as -X, so from -1 to -171( =-1-2-3...-18)):

Average: -76

And for the ones ending in positive territory:

Average: 68.
This last graph does not show all results, but the most frequents.  Maximum reached was 1212u!  So as you can see, the lower the maximum, the more frequent it is.  65,14% had a maximum >=36.

Does this mean: take first profit?  This is safe 87% of times.
But let's see how many new highs happened until 18nrs failed:
Average new highs is 5.5, median: 4.  Max new highs is 68!  Half had 4 or more nh, half had less.
73,3% had 2 new highs or more.


So I guess it's up to someone's guess to keep on playing after a new high or not.  Perhaps, if a new high is reached with more than 12nrs would it be time to restart?  A guess.

Hard to tell which is better: to let run or to take first profit.  You never know...

These results are all playing flat.  Of course, if inserting a progression, depending on its aggressiveness, maybe 95% or the runs will see a new high, or more new highs... and deeper lows.

Summary:


I will elaborate later on steps 3 and 4.

Thanks for watching.

[Mako]

Bravo Ben, you're doing exactly what's necessary to deep dive on a hypothesis in a controlled way to determine accurate results positive or negative.  Definitely "watching", good stuff.

[Bigbroben]

Tried real quick to reset on second high.  Been lucky but promising.


2nd new highs came on spins 10, 20, 32, 43, 62.  Only once did the first hit come past 8nrs (so, yeah, statistically lucky).

Mmmm... so many possibilities.  Perhaps aim for the 2nd nh if the first comes on or before 8 spins?  Or continue until more than 37u are laid before a hit,  so when it starts "lagging"?

[Bigbroben]

Another one.  I just played until 18nrs busts. Was close to do it, terrible start.
But sometimes you gotta surf the wave.
Did not bust yet.  Another new high of 329 with 16nrs,  155 spins.

[Bigbroben]

A good old density game at hand.  Went up to 23nrs at some point, got back down below 18 nrs...
This game is fighting pretty well, I must say...