How i survived a run from hell with the Notto-bet

[ignatus]

Ho! 

Now, played again on the MPR, with the "Notto FIBO 7"...but then hey? i got into this hole, and progression went too far, ..i though now it going to bust..but no! This will not happen. so i figured a *new progressionline* for this notto-bet (i play only number 1-7) then reset,,,so, with this new progressionline (a combination of FIBO 7 and IVO2) i survived this "run from hell" and reached a new high... (took me about 1h to get out of the hole)..

*new* Progressionline

1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3 3 3 3
5 5 5 5 5 5 5
8 8 8 8 8 8 8
13 13 13 13 13 13 13
15 15 15 15 15 15 15 <---Here is the "critical point"
16 16 16 16 16 16 16
17 17 17 17 17 17 17
18 18 18 18 18 18 18
19 19 19 19 19 19 19
20 20 20 20 20 20 20
STOP

So? You play as usual FIBO 7-progression, but when you reach the "critical point" (15u bet) you simply switch bet into the IVO2-progression....you play that IVO2-progression UNTIL you reach a new high. (Simple explanation)

Here are some points

(1) When play the IVO2 progression you go back ONE step in the progressionline-ladder *for each win*...(this could be applied to the rest of the progression also ofc...) BUT then if you win and reach 15u again, you *STAY* at 15u, until you recoverd and  reach a new high...Ofc, there can be an exception to this rule also, (when you're *close* to reach a new high, you could lower the bet to 5u in the progressionline etc, and play from there)

so, that's pretty much the basics?. I think now, a TOTAL loss would be a very rare event... so, this new progressionline, can survive "runs from hell" and Seldom/never lose...imo

IT require a pretty large BR (about 2500u) and alot of time and patience...but in the End, you should win....that's the point? (and my experience playing this progression)

cheers 

[Roulettebeater]

who guarantees you that every time the hole will be the same?
are you sure that next hole won't be deeper?

[Bigbroben]

who guarantees you that every time the hole will be the same?
are you sure that next hole won't be deeper?

True,
you can't claim to know a hole unless you tried it...

[ignatus]

who guarantees you that every time the hole will be the same?
are you sure that next hole won't be deeper?

who guarantee?? Well? it works like 100 times better than the orginal bet, and 1000 times better than the "original bet" notto is playing (1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3)....so, if you win 99% of the time, yes? you may lose 1-2% of the time idk? i never lost? so? what's your point? really??

[ignatus]

Here's one Live-session (now played manually)....i was "lucky" this time, wanted to show /recovery/  if i got into a hole, but this time it only got to 8u (so a minor recovery in the chart).....they way i played it, as i've explained, --->The fibonacci-ladder progression....*for each loss* +1 step in the ladder *for each win* -1 step in the ladder (and Reset progression if reached a new high)

Reached the wingoal (+500u) played with 1u bets...

But i said, this may be good...BUT it requires a large BR, i'd say minimum of 2500-3000u (played with 1u bets) to cover the full progression IF you get into a hole,..

[Face]

Hi Ignatus!
Can i get dgt? Thanks

[ignatus]

Hi Ignatus!
Can i get dgt? Thanks

Hi

I haven't coded this one,..it's too complex for my coding skills, i think? hmm..best i could do is at a win -7 steps in the progressionline ,..but to code the IVO2 bet-procedure when reaching 15u etc, idk.. :/

[Mako]

This is what I was alluding to yesterday after looking at the massive dataset for Notto's First 10 bet, that we would need to come up with the most optimal progression for it to really work. 

Ben's idea of a positive progression is something I also was thinking of, how to build a positive progression that can endure long chops of LWL or WLLW as I've seen the Notto bet get frequently over the 779 blocks of 10-spins I've tested.  Sometimes the chops last for 200-400 spins, straight, with an overall win rate being around 63%...and that's the challenge when we're talking about +1/-1 or multi-step progressions. 

In addition to being able to handle the chop, it also has to be able to handle streaks of 3+ total losses (three 10-spin blocks where no repeaters arrived)...no easy task when also asking it to handle choppiness as well.

And what you're doing Iggy in terms of shrinking the betting window to 7 numbers while also applying a curve-fitted progression to it is also is great.  Curve-fitting being a good thing here as opposed to a negative as it usually is because you're trying to see what each of the big holes looks like, and each time one arrives modifying your progression or selection to defeat it in addition to the other previous big holes we've uncovered as well.

The hope is that you get to the point where you've uncovered the majority of big holes that can develop over 20k+ spins, have developed a progression that can handle them...and one that won't demolish the BR for any unknown big hole variants down the road that haven't been seen yet.

At an 80% hit rate it's worth pursuing, thanks everyone for contributing your efforts. 

[ignatus]

Yes, thx Mako

Now i think i got the code somewhere similar to this BET, (not exactly the same) but looking at the chart now, it recovers pretty good out of a deep hole....

What's new with this code

* Reset bet (1-7) after 7 spins ...(begin anew betting 1 number etc)
* The new progressionline is used
* -7 steps  in the progressionline for each Win.

I think i got it somewhere right, first test looks good,...

RX-code Nottogame NEW test

Code Select Expand

system "Nottogame New Test"
// © ignatus 2018 ©

method "main"
begin
  while starting a new session
  begin
    put 0 to Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
   
    Set List[1,1,1,1,1,1,1,
             2,2,2,2,2,2,2,
             3,3,3,3,3,3,3,
             5,5,5,5,5,5,5,
             8,8,8,8,8,8,8,
             13,13,13,13,13,13,13,
             15,15,15,15,15,15,15,
             16,16,16,16,16,16,16,
             17,17,17,17,17,17,17,
             18,18,18,18,18,18,18,
             19,19,19,19,19,19,19,
             20,20,20,20,20,20,20]
     to Record "progression" Data

    Set List[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10]
     to Record "Spin Counter" Data
  end

   while on each spin
  begin

  if Bankroll >= Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
    begin
        clear Record "last7" Layout
        clear Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
        put 100% Bankroll to Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
        put 1 on Record "Spin Counter" Data Index
        put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
    end
   
  if any inside bet won each
begin
clear Record "last7" layout
put 1 on Record "Spin Counter" Data Index
subtract 7 on Record "progression" Data Index

if Record "progression" Data Index <= 1 each
begin
put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
end
end

If Record "Spin Counter" Data Index = 8 each
begin
clear Record "last7" layout
put 1 on Record "Spin Counter" Data Index
end


   Track last Number for 7 spins to
Record "last7" layout

  Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "last7" layout list
  add 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
  add 1 on Record "Spin Counter" Data Index
 



{if total bankroll >= 2000 each time
begin
stop session
end
}

if total bankroll <= -2000 each time
begin
stop session
end

  If Record "progression" Data Index >
  Record "progression" Data Count
    Begin
   clear Record "last7" layout

   Put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
   put 1 on Record "Spin Counter" Data Index
   End

  end
END

[IVO]

Hi

I haven't coded this one,..it's too complex for my coding skills, i think? hmm..best i could do is at a win -7 steps in the progressionline ,..but to code the IVO2 bet-procedure when reaching 15u etc, idk.. :/

yes, it is good idea => few steps down or some stop loss

[ignatus]

well? isn't this chart just typical?? i don't understand? At "some magical point" it will all go downhill, this one, had reached  +10 000u but you see? for the next 3000 spins it was all losses? How is that even possible?? 

[ignatus]

What i figure *now* it doesn't matter what kind of progression of tricks you use? only thing i can blame now, IS....THE BETSELECTION....as Steve said, -"if it can't win flatbet, it can't win with any kind of progression?" i believe there the truth,...and? yes, now we're getting somewhere,...point IS then? -This IS a losing betselection, that's why it can't win, (in the long run)....That's my conclution? To find a "winning bet" now, only way IS also as Steve said -"increase the accuracy of the betselection"....so? Any "random/carpet bet" (which this IS also?) CANNOT win, (in the long run)....this i the truth. 

[Mako]

What i figure *now* it doesn't matter what kind of progression of tricks you use? only thing i can blame now, IS....THE BETSELECTION....as Steve said, -"if it can't win flatbet, it can't win with any kind of progression?" i believe there the truth,...and? yes, now we're getting somewhere,...point IS then? -This IS a losing betselection, that's why it can't win, (in the long run)....That's my conclution? To find a "winning bet" now, only way IS also as Steve said -"increase the accuracy of the betselection"....so? Any "random/carpet bet" (which this IS also?) CANNOT win, (in the long run)....this i the truth. 

Well you're not wrong Iggy, because we can see that the bet selection is hitting at nearly exactly what the probability says it will (80%), and if the payout isn't right (as it never is obviously) then how do we overcome it...

I've been looking at the bet selection the past couple of days and wondering if there's a way to drill down to where the accuracy seems highest, basically looking at the highest hit rate averages and using it to alter the bet selection. 

Difficult to pin it down, but in large scale testing betting just the number 4/5/6 spin block of the 10 total spins (flatbetting) produced a better result than betting all 10 spins using the base progression (1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,3).  Just betting 3 spins basically, at the most common strikes.

Not enough to make it a winner, but superior than the base 10-spins/10-numbers bet. 

None of the dozens of First 10 bets have performed as well for me as either repeaters using a 1-5-25 aggressive positive progression, or, your Hotnumbers Mania v.2 and v.4 methods.

Those 3 are still tops so far, though there are a couple others in early testing doing as well/better.  The quest continues...