Trading on the betting exchanges.

[Twisteruk]

Southwell 1.00 No2 ZAMINA

Back it Each Way at 7/2


Good Luck all 

[flukey luke]

Cheers Twister 
I have a good feeling in my bones today, not that that normally counts for much 

[flukey luke]

Silenzio must have grown a pair of wings, it has being backed down to 2/1.

minella boys down to 5's as well.

Is today the day! Could be wild celebrations in flukey towers tonight. 

[Twisteruk]

Well it wasnt to be today for mine

Good luck with yours luke !

[Twisteruk]

Just had a word for ASTERALES in the 5.50 at Kempton


TAKE THE 16/1 NOW and back it Each Way 

[Twisteruk]

WOW what a Gamble landed in ure race luke !!!

Orange Ace 40/1 into 8/1 

[Twisteruk]

Just had a word for ASTERALES in the 5.50 at Kempton


TAKE THE 16/1 NOW and back it Each Way  

Crazy Prices at the moment 12/1 with Lads and 20/1 with Stan James  

[Twisteruk]

Crazy Prices at the moment 12/1 with Lads and 20/1 with Stan James  

Urgghhh 4th  

[flukey luke]

Hello Superman,
I would not consider myself to be a pro at this sport by a long way.  
I have only really taken an interest in it over the last 12-18 months. It is a fact that only 2% of the people participating in it can make the game pay.
There are just so many variables involved.
ie. jockey, trainer, course, distance, going. That is probably only half of it as well.
As for staking plans, I think level stakes are best. In fact the Kelly Criterion would probably be just as effective here as it is in other fields. (especially for me at the moment anyhow   )
There are all kinds of different software programs available. A lot of people compile their own ratings and form a tissue (this means making their own book) Then if they spot 'value' and other factors look positive, it would probably signal a bet.
Rather than backing horses to win, I am now more inclined to think backing horses to lose (in other words 'laying' them is probably the best route to go down). It may be that staking plans would be more effective here as well.
Let me just give you a brief example. The other day, I did not fancy a horse to win, it's price was 8/13. I forget how many other horses were in the race just now, but I think at least another 7 or 8. So in effect I had these horses running for me. Any one of them could win and I would collect my lay bet. I think that someone who is very selective could find a few excellent lays a week where the public overbet the lay selection and therefore it's price is shorter than it's true chance of winning. So in a sense, you are getting value laying it. If you can find enough of these over time to lay at prices lower than 1/1, then it may be possible that a good staking plan could work. It is not really like roulette where the odds are fixed. If 10 reds have come up in a row, I would not be getting any value in laying black. But if the public have overbet horse A, and it's true chance of winning is 2/1 and yet it is a 1/1 shot, then I have value on my side. So here, it would be fascinating to see if progressions  could work. I would be inclined to think some kind of positive progression may be worth looking into here as well. Anyway, all just thoughts really.
I love the challenge and I don't give up, so it is going to be a long hard road ahead. But it would be nice in a few years to have another string to my bow.  

[Twisteruk]

3 Bets today

Ludlow 1.00 No13 MAWSEM- Each Way
Take the 4/1

Ludlow 2.00 No6 RIFLEMAN-Each Way
Take the 10/1


And an Each Way Double those two



Cheers 

[flukey luke]

Good morning,

bet number 5.

12.55 clonmel. quartetto. (back to win) 6.0 or 5/1 best price available.

good luck 

[flukey luke]

Lay of the day.

3.00 ludlow. rougham (back to lose) 4/6 at the moment.
Personally, I think it will fall. 

[Twisteruk]

Beautiful Lay luke ! Cashed in nice there 

A 3rd for me today and an Unplaced 4th

Always 2morrow 

[Twisteruk]

Just one bet today

Cheltenham 3.35 No12 Traffic Article to Win


Take the 18/1 and 16/1 as its only 10/1  with Will hill


Good Luck all  

[Blood Angel]

Hi Twister

I got on at 14's.
Good luck