Beating the even money

[Roulettebeater]

Correct. See attached, courtesy of Bigbroben.

It could take a while to realise though. Variance is very high on just one number, so ideally you want to be be betting on 5-7 numbers in your prediction area to keep the cash flow up 

Yes, one of my pyhiscs’s based system seems to perform good, I don’t bet only one number, bet selection points out to one pocket, I cover it as well as it’s 8 neigbors, frequently the result falls within the range of 3-7 pockets.

What you think ?

[Firefox]

You should be raking it in if you can get within 7 pockets average error!

One thing though, you should be 7 pockets +/  missing on both sides If you are  consistently 7 pockets short, then a shift correction needs to be applied.

If you are both +/ on the target equally, then a shift won't help and your prediction is optimised for your method.

A scatter plot of your predictions versus result will help visualise if you can improve by applying a shift.

[Roulettebeater]

You should be raking it in if you can get within 7 pockets average error!

One thing though, you should be 7 pockets +/  missing on both sides If you are  consistently 7 pockets short, then a shift correction needs to be applied.

If you are both +/ on the target equally, then a shift won't help and your prediction is optimised for your method.

A scatter plot of your predictions versus result will help visualise if you can improve by applying a shift.

Yes it’s + - on the target equally, I also think that the method is already optimized, in fact I am covering 8 pockets on each side, so total is 17 numbers. Do you think I have edge. ?

[Firefox]

Your edge depends on your prediction error, not on the number of pockets you bet.

It depends on the wheel. If the scatter peak is long and flat , 17 pockets may be Ok. If the scatter peak is tighter and higher, then 17 is probably too many. Some of your numbers could be just average or negative expectation for that spin. About 10 probably better. Two neighbours bets in the zone would do.

I'd do well to get 17 bets down! Usually two or three chips on splits or straights  in the zone is all I manage. I guess touch bet would be easier, but I don't play those.

[Roulettebeater]

Your edge depends on your prediction error, not on the number of pockets you bet.

It depends on the wheel. If the scatter peak is long and flat , 17 pockets may be Ok. If the scatter peak is tighter and higher, then 17 is probably too many. Some of your numbers could be just average or negative expectation for that spin. About 10 probably better. Two neighbours bets in the zone would do.

I'd do well to get 17 bets down! Usually two or three chips on splits or straights  in the zone is all I manage. I guess touch bet would be easier, but I don't play those.

Maybe !
But I really don’t like to play long sessions, playing only 2 neighbors can be stressful because you might need lo sit longer on the table, but as you said it depends !

[Firefox]

Well it can be stressful just hitting. I hit 7 splits in a row last week and I was only betting a handful of numbers. Pit boss was staring at me, and knew I was looking in the wheel. It was only £250, I play for small stakes. Had to go back to betting red/black and a few random bets before I coloured up.

[Winner]

Who’s jumped 🚢 worm guard hasn’t lol
Wwwlwlwlwlwlllwwllwwll:wlwwlllwwlllllwlwllwwll:wll:llwll: nice little profit

[Winner]

Jono how’s it going?

[jono1167]

Who’s jumped 🚢 worm guard hasn’t lol
Wwwlwlwlwlwlllwwllwwll:wlwwlllwwlllllwlwllwwll:wll:llwll: nice little profit

Not me! I think I’m about 2/3 the way through Mister Eko’s numbers (so many numbers it’s hard to be sure). I’m going to make it through to the end this time.

Probably another week and I will post results.

Great results with Worm Guard Winner. Still not sure how you can be so consistent.....

[Winner]

Not me! I think I’m about 2/3 the way through Mister Eko’s numbers (so many numbers it’s hard to be sure). I’m going to make it through to the end this time.

Probably another week and I will post results.

Great results with Worm Guard Winner. Still not sure how you can be so consistent.....

let me know how your making out when your done and I’ll compare what you doing with the worm guard.

[jono1167]

let me know how your making out when your done and I’ll compare what you doing with the worm guard.

Cheers Winner. No worries.

I’ll post all results in about a week. About 2/3rds through, so far so good. I would be very unlucky not to complete the numbers this time. This is about the eighth attempt.

I’ve tested  the different methods discussed on this thread but they all eventually come unstuck. Not to say they aren’t good methods, but these numbers are very unforgiving. So many zeros.......

How about some easier numbers next time Mister Eko!!??? 😊

[jono1167]

Cheers Winner. No worries.

I’ll post all results in about a week. About 2/3rds through, so far so good. I would be very unlucky not to complete the numbers this time. This is about the eighth attempt.

I’ve tested  the different methods discussed on this thread but they all eventually come unstuck. Not to say they aren’t good methods, but these numbers are very unforgiving. So many zeros.......

How about some easier numbers next time Mister Eko!!??? 😊

A heads-up.... I underestimated Mr Eko's numbers. When I did the above post earlier in the week, I said I was about 2/3rds of the way through the numbers. Not quite..... I estimate I'm only just over halfway. There's actually 29,209 numbers. I put them into a word doc and did a character count.... 29,209  1s & 2s (runs and chops) equates to 58,418 individual numbers. A hell of a lot....

The system is still ahead. I just need  plenty more time.

[Still]

A heads-up.... I underestimated Mr Eko's numbers. When I did the above post earlier in the week, I said I was about 2/3rds of the way through the numbers. Not quite..... I estimate I'm only just over halfway. There's actually 29,209 numbers. I put them into a word doc and did a character count.... 29,209  1s & 2s (runs and chops) equates to 58,418 individual numbers. A hell of a lot....

The system is still ahead. I just need  plenty more time.

I could program this in VBA/Excel if i knew the rules.   Is this a modification not yet discussed in this thread?

If you've placed 15k bets and it's still ahead, that's saying something.  About how many units are you up now?

[jono1167]

I could program this in VBA/Excel if i knew the rules.   Is this a modification not yet discussed in this thread?

If you've placed 15k bets and it's still ahead, that's saying something.  About how many units are you up now?

I haven't worked out the winnings. Because there are so many numbers I'm just putting down WL, LLW, WW LLL etc. I'll go through and do the sums at the end. When I hit a very bad patch, I do some quick maths to make sure the system hasn't sunk.

I'm still fine tuning the rules... I've got the main system, but I'm also looking at identifying an earlier betting opportunity using a separate betting stream. 

By the end of next week, even if I'm not through the numbers, I will start finishing off. I'm starting to realise that with the amount of numbers involved, it's not practical to test everything manually.

I will share everything when complete.

[Still]

I haven't worked out the winnings. Because there are so many numbers I'm just putting down WL, LLW, WW LLL etc. I'll go through and do the sums at the end. When I hit a very bad patch, I do some quick maths to make sure the system hasn't sunk.

I'm still fine tuning the rules... I've got the main system, but I'm also looking at identifying an earlier betting opportunity using a separate betting stream. 

By the end of next week, even if I'm not through the numbers, I will start finishing off. I'm starting to realise that with the amount of numbers involved, it's not practical to test everything manually.

I will share everything when complete.

If you post the wins/loss stream in a text, i'll process it and report.   I have Excel 365 on my desktop now and some time on my hands.