GUT

[Darderos]

Hi,
Someone knows it "GUT"  ?

[bigmoney]

Look it up 9n this forum

[RouletteGhost]

Apparently I discovered a way of playing that works very well for me which is similar to GUT

I deleted the thread because I wasn’t interested in million spin tests

-Sit at table
-Begin recording
-When 18 numbers remain bet those 18 unhits
-when you win remove chip off winning number now bet the 17 numbers. Repeat again with 16 numbers etc.  Secure desired profit and retrack

Flat bet. You will get a lot of losses at times but eventually those 18 will wake up

[Gutroulett]

The basics:
link:s://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=2128.0

[Mako]

Apparently I discovered a way of playing that works very well for me which is similar to GUT

I deleted the thread because I wasn’t interested in million spin tests

-Sit at table
-Begin recording
-When 18 numbers remain bet those 18 unhits
-when you win remove chip off winning number now bet the 17 numbers. Repeat again with 16 numbers etc.  Secure desired profit and retrack

Flat bet. You will get a lot of losses at times but eventually those 18 will wake up

I was testing davey's variant of this RG and had done well, but as I did more and more cycles and crunched the overall win rate it started retreating towards EV.

For me the overall numbers came in as follows:

15.7 = the average amount of unhits I was betting per spin, per cycle attempt (starting at 18 unhits remaining and going until either 6x hits, or spin 37 (loss), whichever came first).

690 = total bets placed (1u per unhit # per spin, basically how many spins where I had active bets)

295 = winning bet spins (295 of the 690 total bet spins won)
395 = losing bet spins (395 of the 690 total bet spins lost)

42.75% = my win rate (295 wins out of 690 attempts)
42.43% = expected win rate (derived from an average of 15.7 unhits bet on per spin per cycle attempt, divided by 37 total numbers on the wheel)

So I saw even in a short sample that the hit rate was where it should be, which explained why my net profits had come in higher than expected at first (48.7% hit rate) but then fell in the next spin set (38.7% hit rate).

What is your stop point each cycle in terms of profit or retrack? I played until the 37th spin or the 6th hit, which often times only gave me 2-3 attempts before retracking because it had taken 34 spins to get to 18 unhits. 

[The General]

-When 18 numbers remain bet those 18 unhits
-when you win remove chip off winning number now bet the 17 numbers. Repeat again with 16 numbers etc.  Secure desired profit and retrack

This is a legit question to help new players.
Why should one of the 18 numbers that have not hit be more likely to hit than a number that has hit?  Where's the logic?
For example, if the number of pockets on the wheel determines the probability of a number winning, and the number of pockets on the wheel remains the same from one spin to the next, why should the odds change? 

[Bigbroben]

General, I couldn't help it, I had to...

[Proofreaders2000]

Basically GUT revolves around one major bet.  Smaller bets are also availiable.

In a nutshell, (the major bet) you have unhit and hit once (or more) numbers.

Unhit  //   Hit
36             0    (when you start playing)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As the numbers come in, the unhit numbers will decrease and the hit numbers will increase.
(You have to keep track of the unhit ones (which ones they are)

Unhit   //  Hit (example)

15            15
         or
16            15


Now, when the unhit numbers equal total hit numbers (preferably 18 numbers or less) it is time to bet all of the unhit numbers one time.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
<<<<Smaller bets>>>>>

Of the hit numbers, you can wager when once hit, twice hit or more equal each other...
(Example)

Once hit   //   Twice Hit
8                         8

You would bet the 8 once hit numbers (one time)

[Mako]

Thanks Proof. I assume you experimented with it over the years, did you ever come to a final conclusion about its efficacy?

[Proofreaders2000]

In theory it should work every time-but
I would play it on paper first for a win, then with real money.

[The General]

Seriously, where's the logic behind why you feel it should work.

Here's an example you could try and use for your argument.  You could say that on a live wheel it won't work but on an rng the algorithm could be faulty and it could be producing a data stream that is too homogenous because of the faulty rng function.

Before rushing to test ideas, try to form a logical hypothesis as to why something should work.

[Proofreaders2000]

The theory is unhit singles eventually become hit singles.

If you have an equal number of unhit singles and hit/twice hit+ singles
chances are the unhits will hit more than the hits. That's GUT.

[Mako]

Goofed around with this today, ran roughly 1000 real-world spins at it, but modified it a bit.

Using 18 unhits as the trigger (19 hits), but then waiting for the next repeat to occur before beginning bets on the remaining unhit. 

If a repeat doesn't occur, I let it walk down the unhits until one does, i.e., 18/19, no repeat = no bet, spin, now 17/20, no repeat = no bet, spin, now 16/21, spin, first repeat occurs since the 18/19 trigger. Now bet the 16 remaining unhits.

I used a progression, though it wound up not needing it, it won flat by a wide margin.

Probability has 18#s hitting on the first spin at 48.65% on a single 0 wheel, but in the 20 first spin attempts I made, the 18 unhit came in at 75%, or 15 hits.

Of the 5 attempts that missed on that first hit, 3 of them hit the very next spin (spin 2) and final 2 hit on the spin after that (spin 3).

So 25 out of 25 attempts on the 18 numbers hit within 3 spins, which is about right because the sample size is small, and probability on 18 #s bet over 3 spins comes out to a win rate of 86.5%. 

I hit 100% in this session, which is nice, but you'd need a thousand results like this to even begin to see if you have an edge, 20 results means less than nothing.

There were multiple instances where the 18/19 walked down to a lower start point before the first repeat occurred, which had me betting on between 17 and 13 unhits depending on the cycle, and the numbers came in far above EV for those as well, with none going beyond 3 betting spin attempts.

I'll stick with it as time permits, see how it goes as I play it.

[Proofreaders2000]

Hey Mako I have requested Winkel to comment.
==============================
Here is Track Four software for unhits/hit singles tracking.

[Bigbroben]

It would be interesting also to check hitrate and compare between early crossing attempts, expected, and late crossings.  18-18, that's abouts where, 24th spin or so?