Does random have limits?

[Herby]

That must of been Dr Sir anyone’s friend who made the law of the third up ..

There is a big difference.

Euler was a genius.
Caleb just believes ...  (that he has friends  )

[The General]

The law of the third  (should be the law of the gullible  ) is the made up term to describe the normal distribution (binomial distribution).   The normal distribution has been known for a very long time.  And if you understood the distribution you'd understand that it proves that there's too many numbers on the wheel in order to break even, and that it in no way helps the gullible player predict which individual numbers are more likely to hit on the next series of spins. 

Saying that the law of the third is useful is like saying that the law of the EC can used to beat roulette as well.     I'm sure that there are plenty of gullible people that would chase that fallacy as well.   

[Firefox]

That’s an argument that can go on forever and I understand your position on the subject..
No disrespect to you Firefox or others with this argument but with this line of thought why bother joining a roulette forum when this is the answer all along ..there’s so much going for this argument you gave ..

Well, many system players enjoy discussing, inventing and playing staking systems without regard to true principles of maths or probability, or indeed what is random. Nothing wrong with that. There's a section on this forum where you can do exactly that without anyone contradicting.

Or there is this general forum where anyone can post anything (including the sometimes painful truth).

There's yet another forum where only advantage play is discussed.

So whatever your outlook there is a place for you.

I joined this forum to see what I could learn about current trends in advantage play and also to talk about the true probabilities of the game.

There's a lot of people who browse here and don't post. Probably many who are new to the game. If they see number 32 coming up 5 times and believe the chance of it coming up on the next spin is anything other than 1/37 after reading here, we've done them a dis-service. They are going to lose their monthly pay check pretty quick.

[6th-sense]

Thanku for your reply Firefox..
That was very well thought out  and explained

[Roulettebeater]

The law of the third  (should be the law of the gullible  ) is the made up term to describe the normal distribution (binomial distribution).   The normal distribution has been known for a very long time.  And if you understood the distribution you'd understand that it proves that there's too many numbers on the wheel in order to break even, and that it in no way helps the gullible player predict which individual numbers are more likely to hit on the next series of spins. 

Saying that the law of the third is useful is like saying that the law of the EC can used to beat roulette as well.     I'm sure that there are plenty of gullible people that would chase that fallacy as well.   

The greatest showman talks!

[MoneyT101]

is this about the pigeonhole principle?

No it’s not

[MoneyT101]

No. Math is not open to interpretation. The solution to an equation is absolute.

Very true but you know

2+3=5
1+4=5

The equation you might be using is probably the issue of why you can’t seem to understand the solution 

[MoneyT101]

This is not a betselection, just example....
Take a sequence of 14 spins,  14 different
splits or 14 diff numbers then give them pair. Now put them into groups/ order
12341234123412, we have here only positions 4, 8, 12(between same group of no). Still missing 4 splits, even if they hit
and i put them in same order, at some point groups will change the position, because  random is .....random can t stay to much in order. Nothing is independent
here anymore, because the numbers belong to a group and  an order. 
So i say random have limits.

Good example.... so doesn’t matter how I group them each will have limits according to their own groups

Hmmmm interesting

[MoneyT101]

Random means that on the next  spin any number from 0 to 36 has an equal chance of appearing, that's all it means.

It doesn't matter if the previous 5 spins number 32 has appeared. If the wheel is fair and random,  the chance 32 will appear the next spin is still 1 in 37, the odds have not altered. The number 32 can appear for the rest of eternity on that wheel, or it can appear never again. These are both possible events, but at the same time unlikely.

That is why people are struggling with the fallacy, and trying to predict what will happen from what has happened... and losing. Triggers, repeaters, sleepers, the law of the third and the rest are all garbage on a random wheel. All that matters is the next spin, and that is not affected by the previous spins, on a fair random wheel.

When 32 has occured 5 times in a row, you're confusing the probability that it will appear on the next spin with the probability that it will occur 6 times in a row.

You are Absolutely correct...

You can’t predict the next spin! 

If your method is based on these random numbers it will eventually fail.

32 can come up 10 times in a row.  It might not but it can happen.


But why would your method depend on this? It’s dumb and makes no sense and you should lose each and every time.

Just because I said a dozens will repeat on the same line in 15 spins...??

I didn’t say this is a winning method.  I’m showing you the idea.

It will happen....  none of you guys have proven me wrong yet

[MoneyT101]

The law of the third  (should be the law of the gullible  ) is the made up term to describe the normal distribution (binomial distribution).   The normal distribution has been known for a very long time.  And if you understood the distribution you'd understand that it proves that there's too many numbers on the wheel in order to break even, and that it in no way helps the gullible player predict which individual numbers are more likely to hit on the next series of spins. 

Saying that the law of the third is useful is like saying that the law of the EC can used to beat roulette as well.     I'm sure that there are plenty of gullible people that would chase that fallacy as well.   

Yes there are to many numbers!!  This is where your method needs to be good...

At ruling out numbers.... see if your idea is in a specific format then you control what you do based on what happens. Take my 15 spins for example...

If first 3 spins I have dozen

1
1
1

Chances of me getting a repeat are 1out 3 on the game.  Nothing changes that is a fact!!!!!!!!!!

But the chances of me getting the 1 to line up in the next 3 spins on this piece of paper are based on what I’m doing here now and it’s based on a 3 spin result not on 1.


There is a different math being played on paper which is based on more then 1 spin.  Yes the wheel can do whatever it wants.  It is used to give us numbers. 

But numbers follow a law....

You can take random numbers from 5 different wheels

And then take numbers from 5 different wheels in another city and what I’m telling you will be the same.

You can take a number from a wheel in Europe and then the next spin from a wheel in the USA.  And what I’m telling you will be the same

You can combine rng number with real wheel number and what I’m telling you will be the same.

Don’t confuse the principle being used to explain the idea.

As more numbers come out the balance shifts from numbers that haven’t came out to numbers that have came out.  Regardless of the wheel being able to distribute any number

[Steve]

It will never happen 37 numbers out the mechanics of roulette will never let it happen you will have the at least in the most impossible event 1 unhit and 1 repeat at the end of a cycle

And woosh, reality goes over his head.

[Steve]

I dont have time to teach primary school math, and really basic logic. If you have the hg, stop arguing. Just go use it.

[Firefox]

As more numbers come out the balance shifts from numbers that haven’t came out to numbers that have came out.  Regardless of the wheel being able to distribute any number

No balance shifts. Not for the future at any rate. And the future is all we are concerned about on a random wheel. They don't allow us to bet on past results.

We can take as our strategy the next 37 spins and we can say that when those spins have happened there are likely to have been repeats. But we don't know which numbers will repeat so we are no further forward.

Every time a number occurs or repeats, the cycle is reset. Previous data is now irrelevant.

The only probabilities that count on a fair random wheel are the a priori ones. This means without regard to previous results.

People are trying to use Bayesian methods to make betting decisions. Bayesian statistics make use of previous distributions or results to predict future ones. It's very useful in many fields eg medicine, politics, or the stock market. Anywhere where there are flaws or trends or conditional probability which could be repeated.

On a fair and random wheel, there are no flaws or trends... and no limits.

[MoneyT101]

No balance shifts. Not for the future at any rate. And the future is all we are concerned about on a random wheel. They don't allow us to bet on past results.

We can take as our strategy the next 37 spins and we can say that when those spins have happened there are likely to have been repeats. But we don't know which numbers will repeat so we are no further forward.

Every time a number occurs or repeats, the cycle is reset. Previous data is now irrelevant.

The only probabilities that count on a fair random wheel are the a priori ones. This means without regard to previous results.

People are trying to use Bayesian methods to make betting decisions. Bayesian statistics make use of previous distributions or results to predict future ones. It's very useful in many fields eg medicine, politics, or the stock market. Anywhere where there are flaws or trends or conditional probability which could be repeated.

On a fair and random wheel, there are no flaws or trends... and no limits.

Honestly you guys are so blinded by the math of the game you can’t see past it.

Everything your saying is correct and I agree with you.

1.Take my 15 spins...
2.Use actual spins or rng whatever
3.rinse and repeat a trillion spins if you want


The outcome will always be the same... at least 1 dozen repeat on the same line.  This has nothing to do with the wheel or where you get the numbers from! 

Now because you can’t see how to apply the information is one thing.  But it doesn’t change the FACT.

See this is a Fact..... forget odds and pay out.

Look at the FACT.... 15 spins in 5 columns of 3 rows.

Write dozens and try not to get a repeat per row before spin 15.

Use roulette use rng.... have your kid count 012301230123 and tell them stop and write it.... doesn’t matter

FACT!!!!

[The General]

Honestly you guys are so blinded by the math of the game you can’t see past it.

Everything your saying is correct and I agree with you.

1.Take my 15 spins...
2.Use actual spins or rng whatever
3.rinse and repeat a trillion spins if you want


The outcome will always be the same... at least 1 dozen repeat on the same line.  This has nothing to do with the wheel or where you get the numbers from! 

Now because you can’t see how to apply the information is one thing.  But it doesn’t change the FACT.

See this is a Fact..... forget odds and pay out.

Look at the FACT.... 15 spins in 5 columns of 3 rows.

Write dozens and try not to get a repeat per row before spin 15.

Use roulette use rng.... have your kid count 012301230123 and tell them stop and write it.... doesn’t matter

FACT!!!!

Money,

Well, as you can see we're all close minded around here.  We're also trying to keep you guys from winning too much money! 
You should try sharing your views over at the wizardofvegas.com where they're all more open minded.