The Superior Bet Selection

[Scarface]

The casino has an advantage of over 5%.  Yet, I'm able to walk away with a profit in around 300 spins of play.  So, that tells me if an AP player has an advantage of 5-10%, he can still lose on short term sessions of a couple hundred spins...he will only be guaranteed to win in the long term

[Steve]

Scarface, are you using progression or flat bets?

And simply the larger your edge, the lower the variance. This affects every system, computer, method etc exactly the same way.

And edge is based on the increase in accuracy of predictions.

[luckyfella]

And simply the larger your edge, the lower the variance. This affects every system, computer, method etc exactly the same way.

This is spot on correct.

I have to highlight this very important fact. Every gambler must know this fact.

If your whatever method, AP or systems, shows large variance, highly likely your method is a loser.

That's why I keep posting these 100spins graphs - look at the variance, if you still haven't figured it out yet.

General, I 'm still lucky as my nick.

[Firefox]

The casino has an advantage of over 5%.  Yet, I'm able to walk away with a profit in around 300 spins of play.  So, that tells me if an AP player has an advantage of 5-10%, he can still lose on short term sessions of a couple hundred spins...he will only be guaranteed to win in the long term

This is true. I have losing sessions.  There are those sessions where I predict the fall off of the ball and the winning sector on the majority of occasions. But the ball stubbornly refuses to drop into the numbers I have bet. It goes in between or just to the side, time after time.

But I know I have an advantage because my fall off and sector prediction is correct. Its only a matter of time, and sure enough, the next session if I can find the right conditions,  the ball starts hitting almost every time.

[Scarface]

Scarface, are you using progression or flat bets?

I use progression only if I'm in profit.  Normally I bet 1 unit on 3 to 4 numbers.  If I'm up 100 units, I raise my bets to 2 units.  If I'm up 300 units, I raise bets to 3 units.  I no longer use a negative progression

[Gandhi]

Hey Scarface, you gave me this way you like to play awhile back and I really enjoy playing this way too and I thank you for the info. I have a few questions and parts where I want to know the way you would do it.

1.) Say you sit down and there are no repeats on the marquee or there is only one repeat for example would you start playing that number and then add the two more when they come up or would you wait for three before you start playing?

2.) Lets say you wait til you have 3 fresh repeats then start playing for 12 spins. Spin 6 you get a hit and profit do you continue betting with the same numbers and finish out the 12 spins or do you stop and wait for another fresh set of 3 repeaters?

3.) This one gets me tangled up. Say you get 3 repeats now you start playing them for 12 spins and during those 12 spins a newer repeat comes up do you drop a number and add this one or do you ignore it until your 12 spins of your original number set is finished?

thanks for all your info much appreciated. 

[Scarface]

Gandhi, thanks for the interest.  I enjoy this method because at some point a number always stands out in the short term.  Here a some quick answers to your questions:

1.  In a case where there is only 1 repeat, I'll play 1 number...and add up to 2 more as they show up

2.  Its your choice.  I normally play the same numbers.  If in spin 6 I get a hit, I continue with the same bet selection.  I only change bet selection if it goes 12 spins without a hit

3.  I continue with the original bet selection, no change.  If it goes 12 spins without a hit, then I change to the latest 3 repeaters

One thing to add, I like using a positive progression only if I'm in profit.  Say I bet 1 unit on 3 numbers...if profit rises to 100 units, I start betting 2 units per number...if profit rises to 300 units, I bet 3 units per number.  I only raise wagers as profits rise, and set a reasonable exit point. 

[Kan@am@]

Back in the day, I was very naive when it come to roulette.  I would bet cold numbers, thinking they were due to hit, and using a negative progression.  Lost alot of money.  One thing I noticed is there were always a few numbers that seemed to repeat over and over.  Playing repeaters seems counterintuitive, but from what I always witness I would have had a much better hit rate playing them.

So, I decided to switch it up.  Now, I play around 4 numbers that are the most recent repeaters.  I've had so much more success with this strategy than playing cold numbers!

Random is a weird thing.  We all know over a great many spins, all numbers will balance out.  But in in a session of a couple hundred spins, there is a huge imbalance.  It seems like playing hot numbers, or repeaters, is the way to go.  The marquee at my casino shows the results of the last 200 spins...the hottest number is almost always around 12, while the coldest number is usually 1 or 2.

Here's my theory.  I think there are some bet selections superior to others.  Of course, I know they will all lose in the end because of the house edge, but I believe some will lose much faster.  All I'm  trying to figure out is which bet selection is better.  If we can find the best bet selection, than we can reduce variance.  If we can reduce variance enough, and use good money management, then we can be closer to beating this game.

Suppose 2 players are playing the same game.  Both players play only 4 numbers.  Player 1 always plays the 4 most recent repeaters.  Player 2 tracks numbers and always plays the 4 numbers that hasn't hit in the longest time.  In this scenario, who will lose their money the quickest?  If we repeat this scenario 100 times, will there be a large number of spins difference between Player 1 and 2.  Of course, with the house edge, both players are destined to lose...but does one bet selection keep you in the game longer than the other?

you should have better hit rate betting neighbours of last 4 repeaters than betting 4 resent repeaters or sleepers.