Thoughts on progressions

[GLC]

Fellow Seekers,

Different types of progressions don't make a system a long-term winner.  Many of the old timers who have been worn haggard by progressions, are adament that if it can't win with a flat bet, it can't win!  It either is or it isn't a winning system.  If it's a winning system, any progression should win.  If it's a losing system, any progression will lose over the long haul.

Progressions are designed to fit your playing style.  Or should I say your playing style will determine what progression you prefer.  If you are a player who doesn't like to get to deep in the hole, you should use a flat bet or maybe the bread winner, 2up 2 down  system or another slow progression.  Lanky's 6 point divisor is an excellent system for this category because you can keep your bets low or let them excalate as you wish.

If you have plenty of bank and don't like grinding then some of the more aggressive progression should suit your style.  I think the most agressive is the grand martingale then the standard martingale, Alexembert, fibonacci, pluscoup, boffins etc...

Having said all of that, one consideration for staying with a less aggressive progression is the table limits.  Most of us don't have to worry about that because of our limited bank roll.  But some of you big guns will.

This is just a starter to generate some discussion on this subject. 

I have done a lot of testing with different progressions and I've done testing on the same sequence of spins with different bet methods and so have seen this trend first hand.

Please anyone, if you think I am wrong, tell us so and enlighten us with the real truth.

Waiting with eager anticipation.

George

[chrisbis]

Hi George, interesting thread.

Could I ask you to go further with your thought provoking ideas, and maybe list up Every progression you have ever used/come across, the values, the levels, and the money management required for them.

Then, if possible, a few of your thoughts on each progression, and what type of system, each progression might suit, and the pros's/con's of each progression.

Then this thread/Topic could be a really good resource library item that many a member can call upon as they try out new ideas and different systems.

be great to see others also adding to the mix, debating the rival merits of a particular progression they have, or tried too.

Just a thought for U, George, and everyone else who sails in her.!!

[MrJ]

"are adament that if it can't win with a flat bet, it can't win!" >>> I have an issue with this. Lets say for the sake of arguement, that you read a method (betting only one number) that on average, always won between the 45-65th bet. Well, flat betting is out  for the obvious reason. So this method would be no good ONLY because the wins come after the 35th bet? Thats goofy. Where is the line drawn? What if the wins were usually in the 40s of betting, its still a poor method?

Ken

[chrisbis]

"are adament that if it can't win with a flat bet, it can't win!" >>> I have an issue with this. Lets say for the sake of arguement, that you read a method (betting only one number) that on average, always won between the 45-65th bet. Well, flat betting is out  for the obvious reason. So this method would be no good ONLY because the wins come after the 35th bet? that's goofy. Where is the line drawn? What if the wins were usually in the 40s of betting, its still a poor method?

Ken

Hi Ken.
Taking Ur question at its face value, the Theoretical method would not be too bad, If U had put more than a modicum of progression on that flat bet.
Like a ramp effect.

For instance, Start Ur flat bet with the absolute lowest table value possible for Ur initial bet stake, and then, slowly but surely increase Ur stake bet after bet, till U reach Ur Nemesis point of say 40Th bet and Ur fully in control of stake balance (spent) to that point, now then, with U in the driving seat, and "knowing" that within the next 20-25 spins, Ur "certain" of a positive outcome for Ur stake position, U max up Ur bet stake value, till it not only reaches the level required to recover Ur loses  to that point, It actually returns U a profit on the investment, and brings U nice and gently back to earth.

What a ride that would be eh?

perhaps this "Imagined" bet plan could be dubbed the "ROLLECOASTER RIDE SYSTEM".

(UNLESS  of course, someone else has claimed that nickname for themselves)

Cheers ken.

Chris

[F_LAT_INO]

As our boss Vic. said;
The most satisfactory win is a flat bet one.Agree.

But which and how.And even if you come up on top
some,wouldn't be enough for all expenses involved,
/fuel,hotels,food,etc.--if you are on the road/--
My opinion---with a stable proved strategy one can
afford the limited progress play,which wins more then
it loses,without going to far.

[chrisbis]

Hi Flat.

In Ur Promised......System, using 9 unique sectors, am I right in saying, that in some cases now, U are flat betting the sectors that come in from the trackers triggers, (ie. placing 16 flat bets on the chosen 8 split sites) instead of placing 8 split bets??

How does this differ if U are? seams maybe I read it wrong somewhere, or misinterpret ur name Flat, the bet stake plan flat-bet??

Advise please mate?

[F_LAT_INO]

Hi Flat.

In your Promised......System, using 9 unique sectors, am I right in saying, that in some cases now, you are flat betting the sectors that come in from the trackers triggers, (ie. placing 16 flat bets on the chosen 8 split sites) instead of placing 8 split bets??

How does this differ if you are? seams maybe I read it wrong somewhere, or misinterpret your name Flat, the bet stake plan flat-bet??

Advise please mate?

Chris,
I do play every day,almost a month now,air bal mach./five min. from my home/
on the flat basis,topping 8 splits to win 10----continously on 4 recents/ignoring strict rules/and when I lose 2 in the row it is a signal for me that recents are to tired and are going for rest......so am waiting for oportunity to start betting on ex sleepers on a strict rules
progressing 1-2-4-8-16.......and this extra bet/that occures not often/haven't lost as yet.Thats how it behaves on air ball.

George mate,
Since you are kind of liking progression I do have a bet for you,
tested over 1000000 spins,and if you wish will send you an excel/
have tried to do so here but it didn't accept attachement of 3000 spins/
and all explanations regarding the bet is in that attachement.
But must do it on your priv.email.

[chrisbis]

By.... "sleepers",..... I take it U mean Furthest?

And expand if U will, Ur meaning of.... "this extra bet/that occurs not often/haven't lost yet"
So sometimes, when Recent have "gone cold, do U switch to the sleepers/furthest as a single series bet sequence (betting on furthest/sleepers only), or do U combine the bets,
Ie. recent and further, betting stake increases to 16 units, and go for a more modest 2unit return profit, to keep the bets going? (with Ur 1-2-4-8-16  progression if lost twice in a row)?

[MrJ]

Dont get me wrong guys. If a flat betting method is working fine, dont mess with it, I agree. If it needs a bit MORE punch to it (and still makes a nice profit), I dont see a problem using a progression. Just my opinion.


Ken

[GLC]

Hi George, interesting thread.

Could I ask you to go further with your thought provoking ideas, and maybe list up Every progression you have ever used/come across, the values, the levels, and the money management required for them.

Then, if possible, a few of your thoughts on each progression, and what type of system, each progression might suit, and the pros's/con's of each progression.

Then this thread/Topic could be a really good resource library item that many a member can call upon as they try out new ideas and different systems.

be great to see others also adding to the mix, debating the rival merits of a particular progression they have, or tried too.

Just a thought for U, George, and everyone else who sails in her.!!

CB,

Your idea is a good one.

Unfortunately, it'll be about as time consuming as writing a doctorate dissertation.  I just don't have that kind of time.

Here's an idea though.  Why don't members contribute their favorite progression(s), what systems they play them on, their win target, stop loss, bank size, etc...

Some of the progressions like Hermes' leveller are better presented by him than me.

A lot of the progressions have been detailed on topics on this forum and can be found and copied to this thread.

I will post a couple of my favorites but all of them is a nut too big to crack.

George

[GLC]

Chris,
I do play every day,almost a month now,air bal mach./five min. from my home/
on the flat basis,topping 8 splits to win 10----continously on 4 recents/ignoring strict rules/and when I lose 2 in the row it is a signal for me that recents are to tired and are going for rest......so am waiting for oportunity to start betting on ex sleepers on a strict rules
progressing 1-2-4-8-16.......and this extra bet/that occures not often/haven't lost as yet.that's how it behaves on air ball.

George mate,
Since you are kind of liking progression I do have a bet for you,
tested over 1000000 spins,and if you wish will send you an excel/
have tried to do so here but it didn't accept attachement of 3000 spins/
and all explanations regarding the bet is in that attachement.
But must do it on your priv.email.

Send away Flat.

I'm always interested in your systems.

You have all my info.

Thanks,

George

[GLC]

MrJ,

Please note that I said "...many of the old timers who have been worn haggard..."

I'm a long ways from being worn haggard.

And, even though I can't hold a candle to your progressions, I still haven't found a system that I can stand to play flat betting.

There is one someone posted that I think might actually work flat betting.  Oh yeah, it's your e.c. system.  I've never gotten around to really giving it a fair test, although I tried it for a short run and did pretty good with it.  The subjective aspect is what makes it possible since that takes it out of the strictly mechanical realm.

I came up with a similar idea a while back.  I would start with the Low e.c. and bet on it until I lost, then I would move to the Even e.c. and bet on it until I lost, then I would move to the Red e.c., then black, odd, High and keep going through the sequence.  My idea was to create as random a bet selection method as I could.  I didn't think that it did any better than just betting penultimate on a single e.c.  Although, it may be worthy of more tests in the future.  I used a +1 negative progression.

I think your observation regarding straight up numbers indicates that there just may be a way to win with a progression.  That's assuming your assumptions are accurate.

Anyway, I only call it the way I see it.  No math, just observation.

I have concluded that, as long as there is a number on the table that if spun can hurt your current system, eventually enough of them will come in succession or at least close enough together to cause you to either go bust or reach your stop loss.

Hopefully, when it happens, it's expected and prepared for so as not to be a knockout punch.

All for now,

George

[MrJ]

  "Oh yeah, it's your e.c. system" >>> Two days ago I netted 2K playing that.

Ken

[beretta28]

From a math point of view,the best "progression",ON A LONG TERM BASIS(let's say 5000/10000 spins), is flat bet ,starting with a BKR of 5 units and a win goal of 1 unit every session!!BKR 3 or 10 is worse!

This is math,not my opinion. . . .

It's a winning method if you are LUCKY or,less probable, you have a very strong and sure(!!!???) bet selection!
In any case it's the method you'll lose less. . . . . .

You have 1 out 19 probabilities to lose your BKR.

It doesn't look very solid(1/19 is not high),but nothing is better ON LONG TERM BASIS.

Of course it's not for gambling addicted that spend 5 or more hours in a Casino,play 2 or 300 spins per session and like play up as you lose progressions(but up as you win too) that seems giving good results in short term. . .

What I mention above, is for speculateurs,professional gamblers,that live close to a real Casino and are so disciplined to stay at the roulette table 2 minutes or 2 hour at the most.

Still math(for information of people loving that!):if you have 5 units Bkr,win goal + 1 unit and you lose the first bet,your bkr becoming 4 units, you need in average 14 spins to come back to + 1 unit!

[GLC]

I have a new progression that I am working on which is giving me excellent results.

I realize that sometimes we come at a progression thru the backdoor thinking that we have a new idea, but really it's just a convaluted way of calculating an existing progression.  After writing that sentence, I've confused myself.

Here's the background.  I have been intrigued by  the 3/2 bet for a long time.
This system has us bet 3 units on the Lo or Hi e.c. and 2 units on the opposite dozen.
Every hit pays 1 unit.    Every loss costs us 5 units.
The original system has us trying to recover a loss on the next 2 spins.  In other words if you lose at 3/2, you bet 9/6  twice and if you win both, you recover 5 units plus up 1 so you go back to betting 3/2 until another loss.
The problem is if you have a cluster of losses close together, you can get to having to make some pretty large bets to recover.

I was playing around with Kingspins Lucky Horseshoe system and came up with a progression idea that has been working well on his system and the 3/2 system.

Write out a bet line that has relationship to your bet.
For the 3/2 system this could be 11111222223333344444555556666677777 etc...
As long as you are winning, continue to bet 3 & 2 (represented by the first 1).
When you have a loss, since you lose 5 units, move 5 steps to the right.  In this case that would put you at the first 2 unit bet.  Multiply 3/2 by 2 and get 6/4.  So we bet 6 & 4.  On a win we move 1 step to the left.  If we win the 6 & 4 bet we recover 2 units and move 1 step to the left which is the fifth 1 unit bet so we bet 3 & 2. continue this way until you get back to the first 1 unit bet at which time you will be up 1 unit.  If you happen to lose before you get back to the beginning of the line, just move 5 steps to the right from where you were at the loss and continue moving 1 step to the left for each win, etc....

If you have a few losses before getting back to the beginning of the line, you will be in the plus before completeing the line.  I recommend resetting to the first 1 anytime you are plus to keep the bets as low as possible.

This will result in you making your units at the 3/2 bet level and just trying to recover a loss or multiple losses with the progression.  As soon as all losses are recovered, go back to winning 1 unit per spin.

You can make it more aggressive by reducing the number of bets at each level or less aggressive by increasing the number of bets at each level.

Ex: 111222333444555666 etc...  This would be an aggressive line.  You would recover losses quickly, but a few losses close together would ratchet your bets upward quickly.

1111111222222233333334444444 etc...  This would be a less aggressive line.  It would take more spins to recover, but a cluster of losses wouldn't shoot your bet size up so quickly.

You decide based on your personality.

This bet line idea is actually a way of representing all bet methods. and gives a good visual of exactly what we are doing with various methods.

The 3/2 method can be reduced to as low as a 1/1 bet.  A 1/1 is 1 unit on the hi/lo e.c. and 1 unit on the opposite dozen.  If you hit the e.c. you break even and if you hit the 3rd  (or 1st) dozen you win 1 unit.  In this case you would use a 1122334455667788 bet line and this could keep your bets very low.

I'm looking for some feedback. 

What do you guys think?

Do you see any weaknesses that I haven't considered.

My new fovorite way to play this is to put 1 unit on each 3 number line except the last one to hit.  That's 11 units.  111111111112222222222233333333333 etc...
I stay with the same line until I get a loss and then I sit out 1 spin and bet the 11 that didn't hit.  I actually like a more aggressive 9 number each level line.
If you get lucky, you can have a line sleep a lot of times and recover a lot of losses.
Another way would be to leave the last line to hit open for each spin.  This makes for a lot of bet movement each time.

Thanks for any input,

George