Most appropriate money management for my system?

[Firefox]

I don't doubt you can still make from biased wheels. The General is a pro player, so he can afford to put a lot more time into finding and exploiting opportunities. I made £1000s from biased wheels 20 years ago but as an amateur AP, I found them much more difficult to find after year 2000.

[Firefox]

General,

Are you and firefox is the same person? His appreance and your disappearance raise that question. Or were u busy with junk wheel?

I can guarantee we are not the same person. He's in the States and I'm UK.  No doubt Steve can confirm our ips are different.

Last week someone asked what I was selling, this week Caleb and I are the same person. If you lot concentrated on how to actually beat the game, instead of on conspiracy theory, you would do a lot better!

[The General]

General , learn something and accept his writing. Your junk wheel got its place, in “Museum”

Madi,

You shouldn't try to find or play a biased wheel.  Based on  your past posts, I feel that a part time job in either the house cleaning or fast food industry would be a better fit for you.

General,

Are you and firefox is the same person? His appreance and your disappearance raise that question. Or were u busy with junk wheel?

No, Firefox and I are not the same person.  His knowledge is vast you would be wise to study what he writes.

Sincerely,

-Steve

[Madi]

Madi,

You shouldn't try to find or play a biased wheel.  Based on  your past posts, I feel that a part time job in either the house cleaning or fast food industry would be a better fit for you.

Thanks general for your advice. Currently i m working with a nearly six figure salary yearly  and note ( i m not on dole money).

Why dont you take your own advice and give the junk wheel relief.

[BellagioOwner]

oh the good old times with cyber insulting and derailing the main post Anyway, I got my advices I guess. I'll try stitching up to odds of 2 for testings and another test I'll make is using Kelly bet.
Firefox if I got it right from wiki reading and your posts, with Kelly I actually put portions of the bankroll depending how sure/value the bet is and how much of a positive edge (advantage) I have on the bet.Got it right? I also found the type to calculate and an online calculator.

PS: Let's spice up the chat a bit. The only systems I'd probably play on roulette would have been around repeaters in 37 cycles. There must be something good there.
And I'm interested sometime in the future trying Steve's computers for online live roulette. But the cost says no for me yet

[Firefox]

You got it! Here's a post I made in another thread about Kelly Bets.

The fraction of your bankroll you should risk on any try in a roughly even chance game = 2p-1

Where p is the probability of winning.

In the case of roulette p=18/37 so 2p-1 is 36/37 - 1 = -1/37 = -2.7%

The negative implies that your best strategy is not to bet at all, since it is a negative expectation game!

However let's assume your chance of winning was 52/100.

Now 2p-1 is  104/100 -1 = 0.04 so you should risk 4% of your bankroll on each bet.

If your chance of winning was 55/100 you should risk 110/100-1 = 10% of your current bankroll on each bet.

All the way up to a dead cert 2x (100/100) -1 = 1  or 100% of your bankroll.

This is really designed for a positive expectation game eg Sports betting where you have inside information, or advantage play where you have a calculated edge.

As for computers, I personally wouldn't use one in the UK. Although technically they are not illegal here like in the States, Casinos are on the look out.  Having an ear piece,  hand in a pocket, wheel watching, late bets and winning,  blue tooth signal etc.

They mostly tolerate VB players as they generally have a lower edge so the casino changes the conditions and they can't prove anything.

But a computer can really milk them quickly, so they will ban suspects. And a lot of casinos come under the same group. So if you get banned by Grosvenor you'll get  banned from all their casinos and they swap info so you may find yourself banned by Coral, Genting,  Stanley. ... loads of them. Suddenly, nowhere near to play.

So personally computers are not for me, but given the right country they may be OK.

[BellagioOwner]

I meant online live wheel roulette with a live video stream on the wheel and ball not in B&M but still, THIS is a  reason why I lost interest in roulette. Advantage Play is limited either to stay under the radar or you get banned. The viable solution I see is giving info to other players through equips or making and running groups of players which I'm not interested. That's why I give it a try at sports bets which is much harder to get located or banned or to prove anything and there is not any (or at least much higher) limit to bet.

PS: That -2.7% on Kelly on roulette it doesn't mean that you should not bet. It indicates that you should bet the opposite side of the bet where the advantage is. So it indicates to bet 2.7% of your bankroll that the EC bet WILL NOT come. But the casino doesn't allow betting AGAINST something coming up so you have nothing to play anyway

[Anastasius]

Bellagip what do u mean the casino  does not allow u to bet against something coming up.

Do u mean in roulette ?

[Firefox]

Correct about Kelly, but casino does not allow you to bet against something, so it comes to the same thing.

And if they did allow you to bet against something, you can be sure they would alter the pay off for that bet to give you equally poor odds. Like a bookmaker the odds would add up not add up to 100% or 1.

[BellagioOwner]

Bellagip what do u mean the casino  does not allow u to bet against something coming up.

Do u mean in roulette ?

Yes in roulette. I haven't thought it in other games but I guess the same would apply not to hurt their house edge. I mean you can bet on a number or set of numbers coming up but you can't bet against it. You can't bet "NO RED" for example which would turn 0 and house edge on your side. And even if you could make a "NO RED" bet I'm sure the payout would be changed as Firefox mentioned too, from 1:1 to something less

[Anastasius]

In europe we can bet one dollar .one zero. Bet on anything and they provide us with pen n paper and encourage us to record numbers

Do u mean no red like bet one black

[Roulettebeater]

You can’t turn a Negative return into positive whatever MM You use.

[BellagioOwner]

I didn't say you can turn negative expectancy in earnings using any MM whatsoever. I was speaking for maximizing profits on a positive flat bet sports betting.

So, anyway, flat betting I ended up positive, and at exactly the same bets, same orders, same results using Kelly bet (and half kelly bet) I ended up big minus. Is it possible or have I made any mistake in Excel calculations on my Kelly bets?

[Firefox]

Have you overestimated your advantage? In which case you may be betting too much if your true advantage wasn't prevelant in the sample. Kelly Bets for small advantage is quite similar to what you may do flat betting eg 100 units bet 3,4,5 on an even chance. Except of course, as your bankroll increases to 200 you'll be slightly increasing then doubling.

Only thing I can think of is if you had a high advantage registered and your bankroll got thumped as it didn't show early, but later on it did show but your bets were then lower than flat and you didn't recover as well.

But provided your advantage and percentage is correct it's the optimum way to increase. Like the Contra D'Alambert, you take advantage of compound interest on a winning streak as you win and increase your bet.

If your advantage doesn't show you may lose a bit more, but that's offset by compound gains when it does, and if it's an advantage, it's more likely to show than not.... so the theory goes anyway!

[The General]

Edge/expectation x confidence level in the playing conditions = bank to bet ratio