Comparison of Roulette Odds vs Sports Betting Odds

[BellagioOwner]

Hi everyone. I've been testing the water on various sports betting ideas and scenarios. I know house edge is also in there (for example on an event that the bookies think it has 50% chance of happening they'll give you odds of 1.87-1.95 etc. That's not the point for now since House edge exists in roulette obviously as well)
I would like to hear what others have to say about a comparison between these 2.

In a roulette table, as we all know, we are given odds of 3 for a dozen/column.
These odds are given because Roulette is supposed to be random and all outcomes (numbers) are supposed to have the same probability thus making these mathematically correct odds.

In sports, there are scenarios for example in basketball that the player has to guess the final score within a range of 10 points.
In these situations, odds are not the same for all ranges since not all scores are equally possible. In this scenario, the MOST likely of all ranges have sometimes odds of 3 like in the attached image. (didn't know how to upload the image IN the post sorry)

My question is, do you believe a player is more likely to get this odds of 3 in sports betting rather than odds of 3 in roulette? (since this is the MOST likely of all events-score ranges to happen in comparison to the EQUALLY same probability for any of the 3 dozens or column to spin.) Is this also making sports a better place to bet on and a looong losing streak more unlikely to happen than in roulette on same odds?

TL/DR: To sum up, do you believe it is more likely to get correct an odd of 3 in sports betting where this event is more likely than others, than to get an odd of 3 in roulette where all dozens have the same 1/3 chance of hitting? Does that make winning in sports bit easier and long losing streaks harder/rarer to occur?

[Firefox]

I think overall you'll get slightly worse odds in sports betting.

For example on dozens the correct odds at Roulette are 2.083 to 1. The casino gives you 2 to 1.  Sports booking takes 5 to 10% margin would give you like 1.85, 1.9, 1.95 to 1.

But just occasionally if you shop around for odds you may be able to get 2.1 or 2.2 to 1. So then you have a small advantage which you can't get at Roulette as it's always 2:1.

What are the chances of getting decent odds? You have to do a lot of research and looking around or maybe get some inside information. It's not easy.

I know that if you take advantage of offers, do research, bet big and start winning consistently, bookies can limit your account to small bets, so it's not worth your while. Like casinos, they don't tolerate advantage based play.

[Let Me Win]

All the real professionals I've met during the years I was involved in horse racing had one thing in common.

None of them were looking for the winner of the race they would all be looking to back horses who were overpriced.

[BellagioOwner]

None of them were looking for the winner of the race they would all be looking to back horses who were overpriced.

Yeah,  that's the value bets that you believe odds are better than what they should be.  That's another story. 

So you guys believe it's the same possible to run on long steaks and same chance to win/lose in the example I give in the first post  about equal random events and more likely to happen events

[ego]

I use sports betting service with proven edge and positive expectation.
You make money that way, but you don't get rich quick.

Cheers

[Let Me Win]

This is a 100% free, transparent and profitable horse racing tipster I followed for years.

:.jerrysbestbets.com

[Firefox]

I use sports betting service with proven edge and positive expectation.
You make money that way, but you don't get rich quick.

Cheers

I had some friends who made a living from it.  If you go it alone a lot of study needed, and if you want to make a living, due to small edge, you have to place large bets. Also make sure your variance is sufficiently low, on the type of action you go for.

Placing bets of thousands of pounds or Euro is not for the faint hearted.

Maybe service is a better idea. But do they charge a fixed fee or commission on winnings?  I think the latter would be better, but it reduces the edge.

[BellagioOwner]

I use sports betting service with proven edge and positive expectation.
You make money that way, but you don't get rich quick.

That's not what the post started out about but if you want to share it here or on DM feel free. On the main topic I guess odds 3 whether are on Roulette or sports betting will have the same ratio of losing streaks etc

[Let Me Win]

If you have the money and the time to get the bets on quickly before the odds get cut this is the daddy of tipping services with many years of profit all independently recorded.

:.equineinvestments.co.uk

[ego]

Will add something later ....

[Drazen]

My question is, do you believe a player is more likely to get this odds of 3 in sports betting rather than odds of 3 in roulette? (since this is the MOST likely of all events-score ranges to happen in comparison to the EQUALLY same probability for any of the 3 dozens or column to spin.) Is this also making sports a better place to bet on and a looong losing streak more unlikely to happen than in roulette on same odds?

I asked myself that a few years ago as well. Then I contacted one guy,  who is working for a bookmaker company, whose job is to make odds for them. We became friends and even had together one project ongoing for a few months. Anyway, during that time I learned a lot about how they work.

Probably you will be surprised but 90% of those people who are making odds for sports betting, don’t bet at all! Do you know why? Their job is just to calculate odds for every game and come as close as they can to actual or realistic probability for every event in time, and they are so damn good at it. They are using a vast number of all possible statistical factors monitored in a real-time,  crunched with complex algorithms which are top secret. That is the reason why sports betting is not so easy to beat longterm as well. I know for a fact that longterm professionals with just a few percents of an edge are considered as good ones.

Does that make winning in sports bit easier and long losing streaks harder/rarer to occur?

The easiest way I can think of to spot this is for example to take NBA basketball. There is a website: :.covers.com where you can take any team and see their past results from 1990. up today. You can see opening Asian handicap lines for every match and its result (won or lost) Same with overs/unders. In other words, they are EC bets, and you can observe winning and losing streaks through the season and then compare that to EC bets in roulette. You will find that those streaks, unfortunately, might be quite nasty as in roulette, so that means that bookies are coming so close to equal odds longterm, and offered bets are so close to random bets, right?

If you find extreme losing or winning streaks in one season, you might notice what happens in the next session. Most of the time deviation will be at least less strong in the same way. Regression toward the means, right?
Is it a good idea, to look extremes from the previous season and bet opposite/same for this season, ridding less strong deviations most of the time?  It's hard to tell, I ll everyone to study that and make a decision. That phenomenon is certainly not a fallacy, but how to exploit it, is? Hah, that's a tricky one, for sure!

Good luck

Drazen

[BellagioOwner]

Thanks Drazen! Nice post and very nice website (covers.com) 

Will add something later ....

If you could Ego post or DM if you don't feel like public, would be great any of the ways. This is not what the post started out about but I'd check it out to see what it has to offer

[Roulettebeater]

A few years ago I bought a software for Sport arbitrage ! Unfortunately It’s not that easy, you need lots of money spread in hundreds of accounts and the bookies sometimes have a maximum for any bet

[Firefox]

I've certainly read that they are quite protective of their edge. If anyone starts systematically taking advantage of offers, or consistently winning with large bets, selecting what turn out to be favourable odds, then they will ban or limit accounts

[ego]

Thanks Drazen! Nice post and very nice website (covers.com) 


If you could Ego post or DM if you don't feel like public, would be great any of the ways. This is not what the post started out about but I'd check it out to see what it has to offer

Hello, i have been using Marketbeaters - link:s://:.marketbeaters.se/ - and when you download the app to your mobile phone you can see the true price list and each tipsters ROI (same as an edge).
Yes, I made money using them, been testing package solution and one single tipster.

You need to be aware that you are on stand by from morning to late night each and every day.
When your mobile phone sound you need to check the tips and sometimes you need to place a bet within a minute.
Some games are live.
You need to download the game company's apps to your mobile phone and be ready to place bets on your way to work, during lunch time, on the subway or bus, in the food store, before you go to sleep when you are on the toilet.

First, I feel it was very stressful using the ultimate package all inclusive, but you get used to it.
When I been using one tipster only I put my money on BB and Daniel who has great ROI (edge)

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Add them to Twitter or email and ask about details, how much you need as bankroll and what gaming companies you can expect to use.
I have been playing with 2000 Euro and 1000 Euro bankrolls at different times where you flat betting 20 or 10 Euro for each bet.

This is for the ones who want to make money without learning how to play and place bets.

Now if you want to learn how to play and learn a method to tackle sports I would recommend John Patrick.
Buy the sports betting book and sports betting service.
He sometimes offering you one-half year for free to get a feel for the whole concept.

You get two phone numbers to call to check general information and picks with explanations.
For me is a time gap so I need to make my phone calls during a specific time as he is based in another part of the world.

You can also follow free daily picks on the forum board and grasp the general mentality around he's betting principals.
At the moment the John Patricks site is down and having issues will soon be fixed.

You can pm me and I will give you his email if you are interested to use the sports betting service.
Both these options make you money and will keep you occupated each and every day.

One more thing I install a mobile phone recorder, so I call the sports betting service once and record the phone call.
Then if something is not clear or I need to listen several times to understand I can do so without paying extra money for phone calls abroad.

The last one is gaming-guru or something similar, lost the link and have to go to Twitter to find it again.
I follow their action for a period of time and the results are very good.
And the bankroll requirement is pretty low 500 Euro and they have a nice betting chart similar to Kelly staking plan where you place different values on different games depending on the likelihood of winning. This concept offering a higher return on investment then flat betting or at least a quicker way to see profits and growth into your bankroll, but swings can be more present, that is how I reflect and understand the concept.
They have a monthly fee.
The issues I had in the past and don't know if they fix it yet, I could not get the auto sms and email function to work.
But one solution is to check there site morning, lunch, dinner, evening times for new picks.
A lot of attention and daily routine and the reason why I did not use their service.

Cheers