Tiny BASIC for Android and EC Hedge

[Firefox]

I've been trying out this app for Android.

link:s://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=org.dyndns.vivi.TinyBASIC2

It allows you to do simple roulette  simulations in BASIC on your mobile device. It's got arrays and colour graphics plotting capability. Best of all, it's totally free!

The keyboard is small and a bit crap, but would be OK on a large phone. The editing takes a bit of getting used to, but it does give you a bug free fully functioning BASIC interpreter on the phone at zero cost.

I have lost all my previous system simulations on old computers but thought I would do a couple on the phone. I'm not really interested in random systems, they all lose! But more interested in programming and seeing which loses the least.

To start I have coded the hedge system where you bet on first dozen and 19-36. 30/37 numbers covered.

Typical ideas are 0/1/2/3/4 on first 12, and 5 units on 19-36.

Or 0/1/2 on first 12 and 3 units on 19-36.

The programme allows you to vary the bets to test different  ideas and input the spin session required from 0 to 5000 spins. I limited it to 5000 spins and 5 unit bets to make the plotting work better.

Don't expect anything fancy! This is real retro computing from the 1990s and before, but it is very fast and allows you to simulate for free anywhere on a small mobile device without dragging a laptop or desktop machine around.

Attached are a couple of screenshots.

[Firefox]

Here's a couple more typical runs.

Both losing about what would be expected. 2400 spins is about the area where the house edge often starts to prevail.

[Firefox]

To clarify the white lines are axes representing the initial bankroll, the red line is the expected session loss based on house edge of 1.35% on the even chance, and 2.7% on the dozen, multiplied by the total bet on those positions. The yellow is the course of the bankroll.

The more I look at these, the more I realise the hedge is a waste of time. It doesn't really affect the swings over a large number of spins, it just loses more cash and attracts a bigger house edge.

[Firefox]

Another one without the hedge.

Far more likely to stay within touching distance of original bankroll.

This confirms the strategy I use when collecting data is the correct one. Minimum even chance bets as little as possible, probably one every few spins or so.

[Let Me Win]

Hello Mr Firefox

Is it possible to do a simulation for the Guetting Progression?

My bet selection would be for Baccarat player or banker with banker paying even money with the super six rules.

link:://:.casinosguide770.com/baccarat/super-six-baccarat.html

Then for bet selection I should like to use this. The example is for roulette but makes no difference just change red and black to player and banker.

You need some history before you start playing -  at least one delimited streak on either side,  but after that there is no waiting for triggers - you play every spin.  The method is trying to adapt to what the wheel is doing, so in a way it is a trend following type of approach, as you will see.

Here we go:

B
B
   R
B
B
   R

At this point I'm ready to make a bet.  The idea is to look at both sides INDEPENDENTLY, and you're looking at the length of streak which occurred LAST - the last completed streak.  We are always going to bet that the length of streak which occurred on that side will repeat (there is more than that, but this is the basic approach).

So here we look back on the RED side and see that the last "streak" was a single R.  At the moment we have a single R, but we don't know how this will end (Red may continue to become a streak of 2 or more, or it may go back to Black, creating another single of Red).  So because the last event on the Red side was a single, we bet that this will repeat so the first bet was on Black.

Red came up again, so this was a loss:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R

Now, this is the second part of the bet selection: You can no longer bet that the previous streak will repeat because we now have 2 reds in a row, and the previous streak was a single red, so we have missed the chance.  What we do now is simply bet that the current streak of 2 reds in a row will CONTINUE, so we bet Red.

Result:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R

A win.  Once again, there is no point in looking at the previous streak because it was a single, and we are now at 3 reds in a row, so we just continue to bet on the same outcome which occurred last, and this rule always applies.  So bet are again:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B   

A loss.  We now need to look back at the last streak on the Black side (forget about what Red is doing, always only look at each side independent of the other).  We see that the last streak on Black side was a streak of 3, so we bet for this to repeat - bet on Black:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B

A win.  The next bet is again on Black because we are betting that the current streak will be the same as the last one (a streak of 3), and so far we only have a streak of 2:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R

A loss.  Now we focus on the Red side again.  The last streak on the red side was a streak of 3, so we bet that the next outcome will be Red, hoping that we will get another streak of 3:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R
B

A loss. We now see that the last streak on the Black side was a streak of 2, so we bet that the next outcome will be another Black:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R
B
B

Win.  Now we need to bet Red, because we're hoping the current streak will be a streak of 2, and this will be true if Red comes up next:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R
B
B
   R

Win.  Now look back to the last Red event.  It was a single, so we bet that this will repeat and bet that the next outcome is Black:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R
B
B
   R
B

Win.  Again we see that the last streak occurring on the Black side was a streak of 2, so we bet Black, hoping for another streak of 2.

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R
B
B
   R
B
B

Win.  Now we bet Red:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R
B
B
   R
B
B
B

Loss.  Now when we look back we see that we can't bet for the last streak on the black side to repeat, because the current streak is longer than 2, so we switch to the second rule and bet that the current streak will continue - bet Black:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R
B
B
   R
B
B
B
B

Win.

I hope you're starting to get the idea.  The outcomes on the even chances tend to clump together, so you get stretches where they are running "streaky" and "choppy", and also periods when one side is more dominant than the other, and this system attempts to take advantage of all these things, as well as repeating patterns. 

This won't win flat betting, but it does generate some very nice winning streaks, so you could try some kind of positive progression but I like Guetting the most.

It may look like FTL, but that's only incidental to the main bet. You default  to FTL when you can make no other bet, but the main part of the system bets for the preceding streak to repeat (on both sides). That means you're not 'targeting' any particular pattern, but playing them as they arise.

And because FTL is used a lot, it keeps you on the right side in strong deviations. You will still get losing runs of 8,9,10 and stretches where you can do nothing but lose, but with this approach I've never seen a bad slump immediately following a bad slump, the kind of thing which creates havoc with your bankroll.

[Let Me Win]

In real life casinos let's say with a £10 minimum bet I would start off with a martingale £10 £20 £40 £80

I would either win four times before busting and then quit playing happy with £40 profit.

Or in a worse case scenario I would lose my first four bets and be £150 down.

But for me to lose four bets in a row the previous selection method would now have to  kick in by mathematical force and start producing selections.

I'd then follow those selections using the Guetting Progression still at £10 units so my first Guetting bet would always be £20

I would continue playing until I'd either recovered my £150 loss or until I'd wiped out my buy in bankroll which would have been £1000

So I'm aiming for 4% profit per session which I think is very reasonable.

[Firefox]

Does it work then?! I'm of the opinion that any method of bet selection on the even chances is as good as any other!

Looking at simulations shows you can be in profit for 1000's of spins. That's a lifetime of gambling for some, provided the sessions are short and irregular

[Let Me Win]

Yes all bet selections are the same so I'm free to enjoy the psychological advantages of believing in my fallacy whilst reversing the logic safe in the knowledge that my fallacies are mathematically sound as all bet selection methods are the same!

Trends exist for sure and whilst there maybe no way of exploiting that knowledge I can't think of any better way to play.

[Firefox]

Flat betting on 50,000 spins.

0.5 units on an even chance. 0 units on Dozen.  Can't really bet any more on this number of spins or the graph goes through the floor!

Most times the expected losses tied in approx with actual. On the last graph the flat bet actually showed a small profit. That's exceptional though. 1 in 100 like that over this number of spins.

[Firefox]

In real life casinos let's say with a £10 minimum bet I would start off with a martingale £10 £20 £40 £80

I would either win four times before busting and then quit playing happy with £40 profit.

Or in a worse case scenario I would lose my first four bets and be £150 down.

But for me to lose four bets in a row the previous selection method would now have to  kick in by mathematical force and start producing selections.

I'd then follow those selections using the Guetting Progression still at £10 units so my first Guetting bet would always be £20

I would continue playing until I'd either recovered my £150 loss or until I'd wiped out my buy in bankroll which would have been £1000

So I'm aiming for 4% profit per session which I think is very reasonable.

I'll have a look at some progressions including Martingales but first I'm going to test out the RNG provided with the app and see how good it is, and what kind of length runs I can get, and whether that conforms to random number probability theory.

It looks pretty good on the simulations I have done so far though.

[Still]

Hello Mr Firefox

Is it possible to do a simulation for the Guetting Progression?

My bet selection would be for Baccarat player or banker with banker paying even money with the super six rules.

link:://:.casinosguide770.com/baccarat/super-six-baccarat.html

Then for bet selection I should like to use this. The example is for roulette but makes no difference just change red and black to player and banker.

You need some history before you start playing -  at least one delimited streak on either side,  but after that there is no waiting for triggers - you play every spin.  The method is trying to adapt to what the wheel is doing, so in a way it is a trend following type of approach, as you will see.

Here we go:

B
B
   R
B
B
   R

At this point I'm ready to make a bet.  The idea is to look at both sides INDEPENDENTLY, and you're looking at the length of streak which occurred LAST - the last completed streak.  We are always going to bet that the length of streak which occurred on that side will repeat (there is more than that, but this is the basic approach).

So here we look back on the RED side and see that the last "streak" was a single R.  At the moment we have a single R, but we don't know how this will end (Red may continue to become a streak of 2 or more, or it may go back to Black, creating another single of Red).  So because the last event on the Red side was a single, we bet that this will repeat so the first bet was on Black.

Red came up again, so this was a loss:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R

Now, this is the second part of the bet selection: You can no longer bet that the previous streak will repeat because we now have 2 reds in a row, and the previous streak was a single red, so we have missed the chance.  What we do now is simply bet that the current streak of 2 reds in a row will CONTINUE, so we bet Red.

Result:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R

A win.  Once again, there is no point in looking at the previous streak because it was a single, and we are now at 3 reds in a row, so we just continue to bet on the same outcome which occurred last, and this rule always applies.  So bet are again:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B   

A loss.  We now need to look back at the last streak on the Black side (forget about what Red is doing, always only look at each side independent of the other).  We see that the last streak on Black side was a streak of 3, so we bet for this to repeat - bet on Black:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B

A win.  The next bet is again on Black because we are betting that the current streak will be the same as the last one (a streak of 3), and so far we only have a streak of 2:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R

A loss.  Now we focus on the Red side again.  The last streak on the red side was a streak of 3, so we bet that the next outcome will be Red, hoping that we will get another streak of 3:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R
B

A loss. We now see that the last streak on the Black side was a streak of 2, so we bet that the next outcome will be another Black:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R
B
B

Win.  Now we need to bet Red, because we're hoping the current streak will be a streak of 2, and this will be true if Red comes up next:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R
B
B
   R

Win.  Now look back to the last Red event.  It was a single, so we bet that this will repeat and bet that the next outcome is Black:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R
B
B
   R
B

Win.  Again we see that the last streak occurring on the Black side was a streak of 2, so we bet Black, hoping for another streak of 2.

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R
B
B
   R
B
B

Win.  Now we bet Red:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R
B
B
   R
B
B
B

Loss.  Now when we look back we see that we can't bet for the last streak on the black side to repeat, because the current streak is longer than 2, so we switch to the second rule and bet that the current streak will continue - bet Black:

B
B
   R
B
B
B
   R
   R
   R
B
B
   R
B
B
   R
B
B
B
B

Win.

I hope you're starting to get the idea.  The outcomes on the even chances tend to clump together, so you get stretches where they are running "streaky" and "choppy", and also periods when one side is more dominant than the other, and this system attempts to take advantage of all these things, as well as repeating patterns. 

This won't win flat betting, but it does generate some very nice winning streaks, so you could try some kind of positive progression but I like Guetting the most.

It may look like FTL, but that's only incidental to the main bet. You default  to FTL when you can make no other bet, but the main part of the system bets for the preceding streak to repeat (on both sides). That means you're not 'targeting' any particular pattern, but playing them as they arise.

And because FTL is used a lot, it keeps you on the right side in strong deviations. You will still get losing runs of 8,9,10 and stretches where you can do nothing but lose, but with this approach I've never seen a bad slump immediately following a bad slump, the kind of thing which creates havoc with your bankroll.

Is this a variation of Sputnik's March? If so, how does it differ? And when you say you've "never seen", what have you seen? Hundreds of spins? Thousands? Hundreds of thousands?