Explain the fallacy

[Anastasius]

Can somebody explain my fallacy in simple words :

If " within 24 spins  .i knew 110% (definate) that out of 12 numbers  . 1 of them will hit. And i play each set of 24 spins  having chosen 1 of these numbers. And flat  betting

Then would i be ahead or still lose long term?

[Loc]

I don't understand if it's a question, math guess or anything else, but with those assumptions:

"within 24 spins .i knew 110% (definate) that out of 12 numbers . 1 of them will hit"

The question should be how you would know it? Assuming that you know, you gonna win 2 times, betting one number, out of 24 spins, then you gonna win, because you get back 72 units risking 22.

[Anastasius]

Sorry its kind of math and hypothetical...

In 24 spins any numbers  can  hit.
Lets say u wait until  number has slept 100 spins then bet it 24 times thats a fallacy that its "due" i understand  that.

So in this hypothetical  situation in 24 spins u get a 'magic list of 12 numbers' 1 only must hit in 24 spins..

What is the most effective way to play the 12 over 24 spins  (cause if u play 12 numbers with martingale  or 1 hit re coups all it will be too expensive by spin 24 (even tho at spin  24 u will still win)

My other question is if u just picked 1 number from the 12 numbers  will u be ahead long term... as u only have 1 number of a potential  12 and only 1 must hit     .... (therefore could hit other 11 many times before u win)

In thr long term will u still  end up ahead

[Anastasius]

Like this ...i give u 12 separate numbers and tell u that in every 24 spins 1 of them must hit.  If u could pick just 1 for the whole 24 spins  flat would u still be aheeven tho other 11 could hit also..

[Firefox]

You will lose long term because the wheel has no memory of the previous 24 spins or anything else. The odds of your number hitting on the next spin is still 1/37 and the pay off is only 35:1.

[Loc]

I was doing it by his assumptions, if you are Sure, that out of 24 spins you will win, then YOU have the edge, also i said it at the beginning, the right question is HOW you know you will win? That's the question, also i am not good with all this kind of guess stuff, it depends on the interpretation of the problem too.

[Anastasius]

I cant grasp the 1 number question but in the example u could wait 12 spins and do 1 hit re coups all for 12 spins which would guarantee a win. Cus in the example  one of the 12 must hit.... im just thinking if it still goes  for 1 number ling term

[Anastasius]

Im just thinking that in the 24 spins for example say for 23 of the spins  the other numbers hit (different to the 12) then final spin one of the 12 hit but its not the one u chose  and that would have huge downswings i dunno if it would be better than betting a number at random

[Loc]

Unless it's pure math since, idk any strategy that could help you in this way..

[maestro]

in 24 spins 12 numbers will hit 5 to 10 times as a group itmight be good bet if you start beting hit numbers for 24 spins...once you got to 24 spins retrack

[maestro]

something like this

[Anastasius]

Maestro does that win long term
How are u betting

[Anastasius]

In your bet sometimes u bet 1 then after a few spins bet 2 or more. Why are u increasing numbers bet on

[maestro]

lol...looking for repeat within dozen...and no is not long therm winner...but is fun

[Firefox]

It's the same as betting a number at random.

24 spins, 37 spins, waiting,  triggers , sleepers, repeaters, all complete crap and useless for any advantage.

Exactly the same as betting randomly, whereupon you will lose to the house edge.