Over There but Here, Reading Randomness

[RayManZ]

  Hi Giz, I downloaded your Even Chance Pro 1.4 With Graphs and when I push RUN, a box comes up and asks: "What is the question?". Whatever I put in the box won't allow me to use your program.

The anwser is in this thread and the one on the other board. But to help you out. The password is: 007 software

[gizmotron2]

The anwser is in this thread and the one on the other board. But to help you out. The password is: 007 software

it's

007 software?

with no space before the "007" and no space after the "?"

[gizmotron2]

Hi Giz, I downloaded your Even Chance Pro 1.4 With Graphs and when I push RUN, a box comes up and asks: "What is the question?". Whatever I put in the box won't allow me to use your program.

Oh, that box. That's working perfectly. The first student to use this software wanted a secret access code. So I went with a secret agent code. I lost access to the source code during an open source testing. The open source software ate it while I was programming and I lost 6 months work. But I had this version, which works great for practice. I don't want to re program all this work. It's the skill that matters anyway. I just built this thing to teach Reading Randomness.

[Steve]

Steve, I personally do not believe in luck or unluck.

If you bet heads on a coin flip and win, it wasn't divine intervention. It was more likely "chance" (in this case, "good luck"). It has nothing to do with "god".

How can God get any Glory if you believe in luck?

Why would a divine being give a shit about "glory" and "pride"? And when did it become giving "god" glory? And for what purpose?

This is not about whether or not I believe in "god". I believe we are all part of what you'd call god, and basically we're all "him". We are like nodes in a network, and the network is god. But I dont follow any particular religion, because I believe they've all lost the message.

And as for the odds that say any previous Spins will not influence the present Spin, I just cannot believe this.

You might eventually find you currently believe a lot of things that just aren't true.

But take a look at the past 38 Spins and look at all the Even Bets (R/B - E/O - H/L) and the 3 Dozens and the 3 Columns {there are others also but just these here), and look at the Trends and the Clusters and the Singles and the Doubles and the Triples and the Weak Side and the Strong Side, etc. Now looking at them all on one sheet decide where you would have Bet (say you choose about 7 Bets), and find out for yourself if you would have Won or Lost. I predict you would have Won with these Guesses because they were EDUCATED guesses.

No. You'd be following normal random behavior. It's like a coin toss... heads wins 3 times in a row. You see a trend, and bet heads. Was the trend normal random behavior, or a real trend that influences what happens next? Why am I even discussing this? It's super old news.

[Steve]

But at times trends dominate as a pattern that keeps repeating

Sure, and that's also normal random behavior. You might see RRR,and the trend might continue to be RRRRRR, or RRRBRB or RRRBBB. It changes nothing.

This occurs long enough to get just one net win from it

OR, you just lose instead.

Which will happen? Well if your trend is based on even chance bets, your odds on the european wheel are 18/37. That's on each and every spin, no matter what you think the previous trend was.

You talk as if trends make a big difference, then contradict yourself saying they dont.

Why do you need trends to predict the future?

Because for any system to beat roulette consistently, it must increase the accuracy of predictions (the next spins). Consider this:

System A (an awesome system you developed)
You bet 1 number per spin
Average win rate: 1 in 37, with no control over when you win.

System B (random betting)
You bet 1 number per spin
Average win rate: 1 in 37, with no control over when you win.

And that's why if you're using trends, you need them to predict the future.

OTHERWISE YOU'VE CHANGED NOTHING.

[gizmotron2]

Sure, and that's also normal random behavior. You might see RRR,and the trend might continue to be RRRRRR, or RRRBRB or RRRBBB. It changes nothing.

How wonderful. You are looking for a force that changes things and I am not. But let's look at your example and see if you can see past your need to foresee what might or might not continue.  RRRbbRRRbbRRRbb OOOeeOOOeeOOOeeOOOee hhhLLhhhLLhhhLLhhhLL this is in fact an example of the Global Effect combined with the perfect execution of a pattern. You would ignore it and I would make thousands off of it. I by my own skillful training am a force that changes things. You are a person invested in not seeing opportunities. But that's OK. You have your computers and your surrogates to operate.

[gizmotron2]

OR, you just lose instead.

Which will happen? Well if your trend is based on even chance bets, your odds on the european wheel are 18/37. That's on each and every spin, no matter what you think the previous trend was.

You talk as if trends make a big difference, then contradict yourself saying they dont.

I don't actually contradict myself. I say that they don't foretell any future outcome. I also say that they don't need to. I say they continue at a duration that is also common to the same in surrounding situations at times. There is no less an opportunity in 20 Reds in a row or a very strongly occurring pattern. But all this is to be ignored because it "doesn't change anything." I could show you powerful opportunities but you will just say that it can't be counted on. But Reading Randomness is mostly all about assessing effectiveness at the time. You don't want to consider that for some reason. There are times when the guesses based on trends go into phases of working very good. You don't acknowledge that.

[Steve]

Gizmo, you cant bet on the past.

I'm not saying you need a force to change something. I'm saying you just need to win with better than random accuracy.

RRRbbRRRbbRRRbb OOOeeOOOeeOOOeeOOOee hhhLLhhhLLhhhLLhhhLL

It makes sweet FA difference what patterns you think you see in a case like this. It is normal random behavior.

You could see the "perfect" pattern that suits your system. Then you make your bets for the next spin. And like I said, you could win, or lose. The average win/loss rate wont change.

For it to change, you need to increase accuracy of predictions.

[Steve]

I say that they don't foretell any future outcome

So if your bets arent based on your predictions of the future, they are based on what?

All gambling games are about deciding on what to bet on, based on your prediction. That is unless you're a pure gambler and bet wherever, or rely on progressions entirely.

[gizmotron2]

Because for any system to beat roulette consistently, it must increase the accuracy of predictions (the next spins). Consider this:

When I say that there are phases of effectiveness that go into stretches of it working real well I mean that it increases the results. It's just you making it a rule that it must take place by "prediction." I'm just saying that you can notice it occurring. It occurs without prediction and that is a complete refutation of your rule. Your rule is only a theory at best. 

[gizmotron2]

Gizmo, you cant bet on the past.

I'm not. I'm selecting a bet based on a condition that is currently in a state of happening. It's not the past. It's now. And they don't all end just when I notice them.  If they did I would know exactly what to bet and win every time.  That's what bugs you I think. I know how to lose the mathematical times that I should in a session and yet still come out ahead. I don't fund the losing streaks. If you play the up & down waves of the session instead of blind guessing then you have a chance to quit while you are ahead. At least I do. The odds do not control when and how long these waves will last. All you can do is confirm your effectiveness and exploit that when it is working. But you can't because you are invested in your rule.

[gizmotron2]

For it to change, you need to increase accuracy of predictions.

There's that rule again. I don't need it to change by an increase in accuracy. I just need it to change on its randomness own. And it always does.  And as far as almost perfect patterns lasting from 30 minutes to 4 hours goes, I'm glad that people that need your rule and live by it always miss out.  I don't need to drag you to see it. You are a grown man. If you don't want to see it then please yourself.  It's the funnest thing on planet earth. You see a perfectly occurring pattern and you bet it until it breaks down. You make thousands off of it and everyone gathers around and cheers. The pit boss comes over and stands to watch all the action. And thanks to most people believing in things like your rule, nobody has a clue what is happening right in front of them. But I always notice the win streak at the Craps table. They get laud and cheer there all the time for those mini streaks of pass bets.  They are just not very good at living with a winner.

[gizmotron2]

So if your bets arent based on your predictions of the future, they are based on what?

The coincidence of randomness and your ability to fit your bet selections into what is happening. Add to that the skill to let it go fast as it just begins to fall apart. It always falls apart. It can't be a system where you just blindly go after any trend. It must be in a working state and you must know why it is in synchronicity. That is a skill combined with experience. You must be agile enough to stop as fast as you started. Most people just want to win more and so they barge right into a losing streak at full value. It's a war concerning greed. Most people do not have what it takes. I'm sure that you have noticed that in the players that lack experience using your computers. It must be pretty much the same thing.

[gizmotron2]

All gambling games are about deciding on what to bet on, based on your prediction. That is unless you're a pure gambler and bet wherever, or rely on progressions entirely.

I don't try to use a skill that can't exist. Because I can't predict anything I must become aware of a trend that is in a working condition. If I don't see one then I don't place a top priced bet on anything.  I know how to win more working conditions than I lose them. It's really that simple and it clearly makes magical belief in mathematical probability a fallacy. The odds don't tell you when a condition will be working or how long a working condition will last. Yet these same experts of math want you to believe that the odds rule everything.  I don't put money on bet selections that are not working. Sure I lose full priced bets. I just don't lose money on all of those that math says I must lose.

[gizmotron2]

You could see the "perfect" pattern that suits your system. Then you make your bets for the next spin. And like I said, you could win, or lose. The average win/loss rate wont change.

If I lose that first bet then the situation has just ended. But If I win 20 bets in a row I guess it was just luck. That is why I stop all sessions on 3 net wins. I know that the waves are actually small most of the times. I don't bet my way into holes. I hit the upticks and end the sessions before the peaks. I do this because my plan is to win. The casino can't stop the peaks and valleys from occurring. So all I do is take advantage of that condition. It's so very simple if you have self control. You just have to know that valleys and peaks will come to you.  You can get them from just betting on Red only. But you would do much better if you bet black during a red valley. I don't expect people to treat a single session as the full event. I'm playing the moves and changes in the session. Most people want a magical progression to take over so that they can put their minds in a hammock. That's a great way to feed the casino your paycheck.