past and future spins ... again

[hanshuckebein]

Hi folks,

"Are past spins (un)related to future spins? Do past spins determine future spins?"

These are the questions often asked. I think : No, of course they are not!

But what if these are the wrong questions? What if the question should be asked just a bit differently like "Can past spins be used as a tool to increase the accuracy of prediction for future spins?"

I see a difference in how the questions are asked . Do or don't you?

Cheers 
Hans

[Joe]

Hi Hans, yes there is a difference. Past spins don't influence future spins but they can be used as a tool to increase accuracy of predictions. Casinos use past spins to check whether their wheels are biased, and obviously knowing whether a wheel is biased or not does increase accuracy of predictions!

[luckyfella]

Past spins don't influence future spins but they can be used as a tool to increase accuracy of predictions.

Thank you Joe for confirming what Jerome has written much earlier.

[luckyfella]

... and obviously knowing whether a wheel is biased or not does increase accuracy of predictions!

This is AP territory so none of my business.

Joe, I share your same sentiment of disliking the "work".

[hanshuckebein]

as lucky stated: what joe said (still thanks for your reply) is ap territory  and none of my business, because of a lack of knowledge, either.

still if you would look at my question not regarding ap ... what would you think?

[Joe]

I didn't specifically have AP in mind. Past spins in themselves don't influence or determine future spins but they can reveal patterns or a distribution which can help to predict future spins. Bias is just an example of that, but past spins can also tell you whether outcomes are independent. If spins aren't random they must be either biased or dependent, or both; how are you supposed to identify non-randomness without looking at past spins?

[Let Me Win]

For the law of the third to work which it does very well time after time then previous spins do have to have some kind of importance?

A bit like the interference pattern in the double slit experiment?

[gizmotron2]

Let's just see if you can see a situation where past spins are part of current spins that are continuing.

Code Select Expand


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Notice that the Black / Red section, that the weak side hits as singles or an occasional double while the strong side is much stronger.

Can you see that? You look down the chart and you can see singles on one side while on the opposite side you get more when they hit, most of the time. Past spins can tell you if a condition is still continuing. You can  also see when that continuation comes to an end.

[Kav]

For the law of the third to work which it does very well time after time then previous spins do have to have some kind of importance?

It is obvious that you are missing valuable real gameplay time experience.
The law of third fails time after time. Just like the 1/37 spins probability of a number, fails again and again.
Yet, both are true (law of third and 1/37 probability of a number) when we are looking at AVERAGES of many 37 spin cycles.

Just because the average heigh of a man is 1.75 meters doesn't mean most men have that height.

[Joe]

The law of third fails time after time.

I don't know what you mean by 'fails'. The law of the third is about a random variable, and like all random variables it has a mean and variance. The distribution of numbers remaining after 37 spins is symmetrical (actually, Gaussian), so approximately 68% of values fall within 1 stddev, 95% falls within 2 stddev, and 99.3% falls within 3 stddev.

Results from 250,000 sessions of 37 spins :

Code Select Expand

#s remaining   frequency     percentage

    5              2          0.001%
    6             13          0.005%
    7            176          0.070%
    8            799          0.320%
    9           3417          1.367%
   10          10263          4.105%
   11          23483          9.393%
   12          39494         15.798%
   13          51367         20.547%
   14          49975         19.990%
   15          37116         14.846%
   16          20955          8.382%
   17           9096          3.638%
   18           2956          1.182%
   19            732          0.293%
   20            134          0.054%
   21             17          0.007%
   22              4          0.002%
   23              1          0.000%

[Kattila]

Quote / Joe :

***
Past spins in themselves don't influence or determine future spins but they can reveal patterns or a distribution which can help to predict future spins. Bias is just an example of that, but past spins can also tell you whether outcomes are independent. If spins aren't random they must be either biased or dependent, or both; how are you supposed to identify non-randomness without looking at past spins?
***

I agree with that, past spins can help ....it s like a map which help you to take a better
decision ( at least in my case).

Can create your own ordered groups(patterns) with the last few spins, then the order/position between groups
will change ( most of the times) because random (is random) and can t stay long in same order , the change is
close but not always.

EX:

patt = pattern ( group patt)
str = streets
pos = position (between same group) ( aba...pos  2 on group a)

In the next example i create pattern where pos 2 is not present.
At some point can bet for pos 2 for few spins, W or L4 ( or L5) stop
and retrack. Bet the group not only one street .

Str   /     patt   /    pos

4           a           
7           a            1
3           b
12         b            1
7           a            3 and 4
11         a            1 and 4 and 5
6           b            3 and 4
5           b            1 and 4 and 5
----------------------------------------
8           a  new       L1
11         a                L2
2           b  new       L3
4           a               W (pos 2)

Can create many others patterns with splits , streets, lines, quads, straight.....
also can use more than  two groups. 
aabbccaabbcc....what positions are not here  ?
abcabcabcabc.....what positions are not here ?

cheers