Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas

[MoneyT101]

This topic is a fresh start to continue some of the discussion we had in the other thread.  So here we will discuss exactly what the title says. 

No one is right and no one is wrong. If anything is spoken about we can label it a myth or fact or idea or theory.  But it will be open for anyone to believe what they want!  They can take the information and learn from it; improve or just be entertained.

New thread and new discussion.  So don’t bring up claims or insinuate anything unless things are said directly in this thread.  If you don’t agree with something then explain why you don’t agree or don’t post!  But don’t just attack people speaking their mind.  Show them why it’s wrong from your point of view and then let them believe what they want.   It’s that simple......

[MoneyT101]

The law of large numbers theorem basically says that if you run more trials(in our case more spins) then the results will reflect the events expected value(in our case the odds)

So the more spins we will get close to the 1/37 odds expected for each number.

I’m really bad I finding the correct words and you can notice in all my post.  So if anyone has a better way to explain law of large numbers or if I explained it wrong.  Please post 😅

Law of large numbers is a proven fact!!!  With 20 spins you can’t see the 1/37 odds because it’s not enough spins.  But with 100,000 it will start to show closer to the 1/37 odds.

MY idea/theory/myth/fact says that ONE of the reasons we lose is because we allow for this law to catch us.

Is this a Theory?..Fact?..Idea?..Myth?

What do you guys think?

[donik7777]

I found in wikipedia and my opinion that fact....
In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.

The LLN is important because it guarantees stable long-term results for the averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember that the law only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of observations is considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will coincide with the expected value or that a streak of one value will immediately be "balanced" by the others (see the gambler's fallacy).

[luckyfella]

Take for example in a 200 continuous spins session the player makes 20bets.

Another player plays 1bet in short 20spins session.

Whether the player players continuous long sessions or multiple short sessions it makes no difference.

The count is the number of bets the player makes. Not the number of spins during the players session.

Over a large number of trials or in these case bets, whether it's played in continuous long sessions or multiple short sessions is irrelevant, LLN says the result will converge towards the expected value.

The mistake many people make is to wrongly assume the count of LLN is the number of spins during their playing session.

[MoneyT101]

For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember that the law only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of observations is considered.

Take for example in a 200 continuous spins session the player makes 20bets.

Another player plays 1bet in short 20spins session.

Whether the player players continuous long sessions or multiple short sessions it makes no difference.

The count is the number of bets the player makes. Not the number of spins during the players session.

Over a large number of trials or in these case bets, whether it's played in continuous long sessions or multiple short sessions is irrelevant, LLN says the result will converge towards the expected value.

The mistake many people make is to wrongly assume the count of LLN is the number of spins during their playing session.

I agree.  It is a mistake many players make.

When they say hit and run.  If you hit and run the law will catch up to you slower.

Like some players say they play for 20 spins and then take a break.  It doesn’t matter.  The law catches up to you the more you play. 

Does anyone else have a different point of view on this specific topic?(law of large number)

[Kav]

If you want to focus on LLN then stay on it. Don't go to Hit and Run because this is a totally different topic.
The logic behind hit and run has various parameters from bankroll management to reset a run of bad luck (same as changing tables).
We can discuss all day about hit and run if you like.

[luckyfella]

If you want to focus on LLN then stay on it. Don't go to Hit and Run because this is a totally different topic.
The logic behind hit and run has various parameters from bankroll management to reset a run of bad luck (same as changing tables).
We can discuss all day about hit and run if you like.

Kav, can you explain how hit and run is not part of LLN ?

What is the role of bankroll management in short term hit and run type play ?

What is your strategy to reset the run of bad luck ?

I will read your explanation from the lens of math only. So I may ask specific questions to clarify my understanding to be correct. Pls be clear with your explanation.

I will not comment about your explanation. I leave that to the rest.

[MoneyT101]

If you want to focus on LLN then stay on it. Don't go to Hit and Run because this is a totally different topic.
The logic behind hit and run has various parameters from bankroll management to reset a run of bad luck (same as changing tables).
We can discuss all day about hit and run if you like.

Out of all people I didn’t think you would disagree. 

Very interesting.... do you have any way to prove the difference with LLN and hit and run?

If you take all the hit and run bets placed, will they not fall under the LLN theorem? Technically they are repetitive bets which will be constant bets.  Whether you bet every 3 spins for a pattern or every other pattern.  The bet itself even with rules of when to bet fall prey to this law.

MY idea/theory/myth/fact says that ONE of the reasons we lose is because we allow for this law to catch us.

My opinion - ****If your hit and run method can break free from the law of large numbers than that also will mean you have a winning method!!****

[Kav]

If you read again my post you'll understand that my point is not about agreeing or disagreeing with you about hit and run.
I'm just pointing out that this is a whole different topic - in case you have something specific to say about LLN.

If you want to discuss Hit and Run that's ok too. I'm not prepared at this time to explain my own take on the issue and the possible benefits of such a style of play.

I was just saying this is a topic ("hit and run type of play") where you can read different opinions and if you focus on those you may miss the main point you were going to make without that distraction. If you want to take as granted that hit and run has no effect (without even defining clearly what you mean by "hit and run") that's absolutely fine with me.

[luckyfella]

If you read again my post you'll understand that my point is not about agreeing or disagreeing with you about hit and run.
I'm just pointing out that this is a whole different topic - in case you have something specific to say about LLN.

If you want to discuss Hit and Run that's ok too. I'm not prepared at this time to explain my own take on the issue and the possible benefits of such a style of play.

I was just saying this is a topic ("hit and run type of play") where you can read different opinions and if you focus on those you may miss the main point you were going to make without that distraction. If you want to take as granted that hit and run has no effect (without even defining clearly what you mean by "hit and run") that's absolutely fine with me.

Just want to make one observation.

It's normal that people don't wish to post the details on forum. I expect that and I respect that.

I declare I have zero marketing intent in whatever shape and form, not now and not in the future.

[MoneyT101]

I classified hit and run at its most general form.

But if we have different levels of hit and run.  I am also open to hearing about it and discussing it.  I’m sure many people can learn something from it.

This topic is a discussion of any theories/facts/myths/ideas.  So we can enter the realm of hit and run since it’s sort of a sub category on the law of large numbers.

Kav, Please if you find time I would enjoy to hear more on your take on this hit and run.  I don’t say this to be in disagreement or anything.  But I enjoy looking at things from different perspective.

Anyone else have a different point of view of hit and run and it falling into LLN?

[Kav]

Try to give a specific example of a "Hit and Run" approach. How would that work?

Any hypothetical Hit and Run Strategy.
This is a good exercise in that it will help you understand there are many different ways to play hit and run. Even that hypothetical strategy could use different types of hit and run.

What defines the Hit point? A trigger? Something else? Nothing?
What defines the Run point? A spin sequence? Your bankroll? Time? Number of spins?
The possibilities and the options are really endless.

[luckyfella]

Is it correct to assume that hit and run is a systems strategy instead of a systems method ?

Is it correct to assume that hit and run is a systems strategy that's not applied based on rigid fixed rules, instead the application is discretionary or somewhere in between ?

[Joe]

A valid reason for hit and run is favourable and unfavourable conditions. Hit when there are favourable conditions and run when they become unfavourable. But there are some who seriously believe that using hit and run without a good reason (ie favourable and unfavourable conditions) is somehow a way to avoid the LLN. They think that short sessions are better than long sessions, and that playing 10 sessions of 25 spins is better than playing 1 session of 250 spins. Simple arithmetic tells you it isn't. There may be good psychological reasons for keeping sessions short, but it doesn't affect the house edge or LLN.

[luckyfella]

There may be good psychological reasons for keeping sessions short, but it doesn't affect the house edge or LLN.

When the conditions are favourable, it means the player missed the past winning bets that they see now.

Whether the conditions continue to remain favourable for future spins is anybody's guess.

Likewise whether conditions continue to remain unfavourable for future spins can't be predicted by past spins.

Hit and run strategy assumes that past results continue to remain the same for future spins, an extrapolation assumption.

There can be psychological benefits to hit when the past results showed favourable and run when the player is on a losing streak. Just the feel good and feel rotten psychology that help make the gambling experience feel nicer.