Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas

[luckyfella]

You should just talk about the math or just reference the Wizard Of Odds...whose math says the game can't be beaten as is.

The math says spin outcomes are independent and unbiased.

If YOU believe in this independent spins, then all the discussion, templates, coding, analysing, testing, money management or whatever is useless and clear contradiction.

That's why I asked steve to shut down his systems forum.

That's the ONLY message I bring to this forum. Nothing else. I hope I am clear this time, and not misconconstrued and misquoted again.

[MoneyT101]

According to me This “somehow” doesn’t exist.  If it doesn’t exist LLN is still going to come in. Do you agree?

You can have two ppl bet opposite of each other and sometimes one will win sometimes the other will win.  But in the end they both will lose.

Victim to the House edge and LLN

But what you can also take from this is that every bet you make is independent from any other bet you make.  Same way every spin is independent from any other spin.

So you can play one game and do something and you can play another game and do something else. Playing independent games at the same time.  Both separate bets will have to deal with LLN the more you play. 

But you control the rules of when,what,where to bet. Your actual bets placed is also affected by the LLN.

But if you have game 1 and game 2 and 1 bankroll for both games.  You play in a way where either game wins you win and reset.

Game 1 independently will win at different spins from game 2 but the bankroll isn’t affected by the LLN cause the game isn’t long enough on your bets placed.

This next example will not work just making a point...

Ec Max spins is 3
Double street max spin is 7

But if each time ec wins you take profit before double street keeps going.  You won’t ever reach the 7 spins with double street getting.  Which also takes advantage of double street early wins.  But again this is not the correct combination. Just an example...

I actually created a table to show you how it looks but decided not to share any further.  I’ve said enough on the subject.

[Still]

The math says spin outcomes are independent and unbiased.

If YOU believe in this independent spins, then all the discussion, templates, coding, analysing, testing, money management or whatever is useless and clear contradiction.

That's why I asked steve to shut down his systems forum.

That's the ONLY message I bring to this forum. Nothing else. I hope I am clear this time, and not misconconstrued and misquoted again.

What's annoying is if you believe this then why are you sending ambiguous messages such that the game can be beaten outside of AP with yet another system?

Steve sends a clearer message. So yah, just let him send it. 

I'm not contradicting my own beliefs, as it appears you are.  I simply dont know if future spins can be exploited based on past spins.  If they can be, the only way you will find out in 2019 is to scientifically prove it with programming such as with Excel that will spit out stats and charts.  I have not tested every idea I've had about this so I still don't know. What's annoying is when people pretend to know what they don't . 

Meanwhile there isn't anything I would bet my own dollars on.

[MoneyT101]

Lucky and Still just agree to disagree

No need to spend your energy going at each other

[luckyfella]

I'm not contradicting my own beliefs, as it appears you are.  I simply DON'T KNOW if future spins can be exploited based on past spins.

Yes, you are blatantly contradicting yourself. Its normal and ok.

Enough of personal level comments.

[Still]

Yes, you are blatantly contradicting yourself. Its normal and ok.

Enough of personal level comments.

How so? Explain. Or, you can continue to pretend to know what you don't know.

[Blueprint]

I will try my hand at a fixed template later.  No idea if it would work bc I’m no Einstein.  But at least we can try.

[Tinsoldiers]

Money - all is well, but you have not yet answered the “somehow” part. Let us go with the answers you have given.

You play in a way where either game wins you win and reset.

Let’s take an example. Assume you play on red even chances in one game and low high on other. How does it matter what you reset when. We established earlier in this thread that LLN spans across your resets.  One time game 1 wins other time game 2 wins, but in the end they both travel towards expectation. No?

but the bankroll isn’t affected by the LLN cause the game isn’t long enough on your bets placed.

It doesn’t matter how long the game is. We established earlier that placed bets are what matters. I can’t consider your example as you can clearly see it doesn’t work. Your placed bets on double street will eventually meet its expectation whether you end small games before you reach 7 spins or not.

See Money, the problem is your examples are not backing your theory and your theory is contradicting from facts you established earlier. Care to give a more apt example? Else, we are going in circles.

So far we have established following:
Fact : Past spins cannot be used to predict next spin
Fact : there are ways to create dependent events in roulette.
Fact : LLN applies to all placed bets, it doesn’t matter what the bet selection process is and whether you place the bets all in one spin, or over a set of consecutive spins or over a period of your lifespan. 

Now what we are debating cannot shake these facts, unless we have a proof point.

[ozon]

The most important question is whether the advantage will remain in longrun.
If it appears at the beginning of the game, it can be optimized with a positive MM.
But if it brings losses in longrun, I don't know if anything can save her.

[MoneyT101]

Maybe later I will give more detail not sure if I’m ready for that..

But for now please re-read what I said.

This ec and lines is not going to work.  Just an example to show how two separate bets have different wins at different times and you can use that to win more frequently

So if for example your playing lines and always win before reaching spins 3-7 your beating the game cause your never reaching the spins that give you the most losses.

The idea is to create 1 bet that can take advantage of this instead of two separate bets.

And your wrong about the LLN affecting you. 

Let’s say line comes out and you play every repeat

142565

-1
-2
-3
-4
-5  win 6..... LLN affects you here but now another example with same set

-1
-2...win reset
-1....win reset
-1....
-2....
-3....win reset... LLN doesn’t affect you

[Blueprint]

What is it that you're actually resetting?

[MoneyT101]

That is my point. I see dependence and two sets of outcomes not equally likely. So the recipe for why the house edge will not catch is there. However how to put into a playable format is questionable.

I didnt say these are the two constants. I mentioned you can bring in 2 or 3 constants together. What those constants that has to be brought together is your work. May be these two will work, but i dont know.

You dont need to bring in more constants to gain edge. Even one constant is sufficient. To get a playeable method in a casino environment you might need to look at more opportunities.

Why do house edge catch up with you. Because of the law of large numbers. Simply put, lets say you constantly bet on red. If it is 10 spins, you might win, you might lose. If it 10,000 spins, then most of the times you will be losing. 100,000 spins, you will definitely be in negative as the variance decreases with a larger sample size. This is because the cycle limits of even chances is only 3 spins excluding zero. However imagine you have defined a cycle with a very large limit. Then you can play such that the law of large numbers will take longer to catch you, and hence you will always have variance to take advantage on.

Lets say you are tracking a biased wheel which is biased towards the 0 pocket. Odds of the game do not change. But the number of times you hit a winner will increase if you are not just targeting zero but pockets around 0 as well. Thats increasing the accuracy. If you follow a betting plan such that this increased hit rate is giving you a higher edge, why not.

Just more proof pri was a good teacher! 

Few things I’ve learned in life....

When your level of understanding something isn’t there yet.  You blame the person teaching and say they are talking BS.  But once you understand and the veil is removed you can see things more clear.

That’s why it’s good to always be teachable even if you think you know it all.

Also can’t be closed minded cause you block yourself from learning.

I don’t have anymore ideas to share or anymore details to share.

Anyone have any more facts/theories/myths/ideas?

[Blueprint]

Not sure how that's proof of anything but thanks for the life lesson.

[mickavelli]

Anyone have any more facts/theories/myths/ideas?

Absolutely, the idea around the permutations!
(Not to be confused with combinations)
If we have say N numbers....
Or N letters.... Or N of anything for that matter
It comes down to how many arrangements can we give or be given!?

From here we can look at non random and combinations!

[MoneyT101]

Absolutely, the idea around the permutations!
(Not to be confused with combinations)
If we have say N numbers....
Or N letters.... Or N of anything for that matter
It comes down to how many arrangements can we give or be given!?

From here we can look at non random and combinations...
Anyone else thinking along these lines??

No everyone else is thinking how they can get me to share more info.  They want a step by step explanation.

I have been open with the whole idea.  I can’t go into further detail.  The next step would be to give you a step by step detailed what to bet.( this message is not directly to you mickavelli)

This idea is one of my approaches.  Pri has her own, redd has his own, dyksexlic has his own.  All different using some of the same concepts