Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas

[Joe]

you don't give a meaningful definition of "edge".

A mathematical definition is the most meaningful. We are talking about gambling here, which ultimately comes down to numbers. A 'wordy' definition would just be a mathematical definition but phrased in words instead of symbols. What's the point, when mathematics is less ambiguous and more succinct?

I suppose it could be something like : edge is your profit or loss after a large number of repeated trials. This has nothing to do with how you get your edge, it's just an abstract definition.

By your equation, any lucky gambler has an edge.

No, that's where the LLN comes in. Edge and LLN are related because the latter guarantees that, given a fair game, the more you play the closer you will come to break even. If the game isn't fair, the more you play the more profit you make if the edge is positive and the more you will lose if it's negative. 

What's your definition of edge?

[Joe]

I didn't ask how you calculate edge, but where it comes from

It comes from being able to predict outcomes such that the probability of a win is consistently higher than that of the probability implied by the payouts.

[Tinsoldiers]

What's your definition of edge?

You are into sports. What’s your bet on getting an answer for this.

[Kav]

You are into sports. What’s your bet on getting an answer for this.

Not even a cent!

[Kav]

It comes from being able to predict outcomes such that the probability of a win is consistently higher than that of the probability implied by the payouts.

How?

[ozon]

I don't know if your conversations will lead to any specific theories that will be clearly presented.

I have recently come full circle and returned to total brutal force.
In my free time I played RS something so banal simple that it is hard to believe.
I started the 15 spins session, chose EC with 5 or less hits, and played for the next 15 spins.
I did not count on RTM, but on more stable 15 spins.
Brutal force is Labby with 2000 units bankroll, if the progression did not end in 15 spins window, I continued it in the next session.
Why it works?
and probably one day a bad series will come, but for now, there is a big plus.

[Joe]

Kav, have the courage of your convictions; answer my question first. What's your definition of edge?

[Kav]

I feel like I'm in the Tower of Babel.

I guess if I write something like this I will get upvoted:

The edge of the LLN after the number of cycles overcomes statistical significance would impose an increase of the accuracy of predictions to a level of certainty that would absorb randomness to the limits of the perceived advantageous dependency of the bet selection, by creating a personal permanence that overcomes the odds without changing the cyclical parameters of the physical/mechanical aspects of the game. Therefore resulting in a large scale, semi-independent series of independent events that although unpredictable can be forecasted with increased accuracy without invalidating the random conformity of the long run.

Good luck everyone!

[Joe]

lol, gibberish. 

[luckyfella]

lol, gibberish. 

Tells us the level of understanding here is very low with lots of twisted word nonsense.

Ppl are guided by their beliefs and opinions instead of math.

This thread carries the proof.

Ppl, pls read Joe's posts, his is the real math. Compare them to what others wrote. Identify the mistakes and misunderstandings. Opportunity to learn from this. Correct yourself. End your ignorance. I have written this earlier. It's your choice to make.

You can't find the bet with positive edge if you don't understand basic math. Zero chance. This is the incentive for you to learn math.

[luckyfella]

A mathematical definition is the most meaningful. We are talking about gambling here, which ultimately comes down to numbers. A 'wordy' definition would just be a mathematical definition but phrased in words instead of symbols. What's the point, when mathematics is less ambiguous and more succinct?

I have repeatedly wrote roulette game is a math puzzle.

The solution has to be based on math.
There is no other way, other than cheating AP, rc and perhaps precog.

[Bigbroben]

LLN will give some capacity of calculating how lucky or unlucky your ride has been vis a vis the mean, i.e. deviation from mean.  Both opposites are true though:  at every spin, no matter what's behind or what is forecasted to happen, it's 36 You against 37 Them.  That's it.  Soon or later it will cost 37 to win 36.
All other stats are irrelevant for the present spin, in a pure random scenario.  At worse, they represent the hopes a loser clings to when not accepting the mathematical reality of rng roulette.

So why the 50 shades of strategies?!?

[MoneyT101]

Hi MoneyT,
Why not number 2?

In the example i used... Lets say for some reason I want to play double street 2 to happen in the third spin.  We arent talking about why i decided to bet that.  Lets just say thats my decision.

previous cycle was 41533....

so new cycle starts with Double street 3.  I want to play double street 2 in the third spin

so 1st spin is already set in stone and its 3
if i already know im playing 2 3rd spin, second spin can be 1,2,3,4,5,6 but if im playing it means im ruling out early repeat(3). so now i still have 1,2,4,5,6. 

If 2 comes out in the second spin and i play 2 on the 3rd spin we complete the cycle and I im not playing for the cycle to end yet so i have to rule out 2.

so second spin i can only choose 1456.

[MoneyT101]

I think we are confusing different things here.  When you bet on a position irrespective of what decision metrics you use in your mind, mainframe calculAtor etc, you end up in a bet on a position and over a period of time LLN will catch up on that position.  Now if you are making it part of another spin and combining the bets, unless you place bets on all the combined spins, it is an individual bet.  The rest is all in your mind. 

Look at the following statement. It is in your mind. There is no bet selection which can tell you that the next will result in double street 2

Yes your right should bet all combined spins to make more sense

[MoneyT101]

Kav, I accept your response on LLN and edge.  Thank you!

Yes i will continue to run in circles with my cycles and my pigeonhole.