Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas

[MoneyT101]

Thanks Money. This is where I question the dependency factor.  If you are betting all combined spins it automatically becomes, let’s say if you are combining two spins and both of them are ECs, a 1:4 bet. What’s then the difference between this and a 9 number bet. All are the same right, with LLN eventually working it’s way out. No?

If you keep both ideas separate then they will lose according to its math.  But if you somehow combine them, maybe you can use it to compliment each other

[MoneyT101]

Money, you may want to check with your followers on the following - do they have a clear understanding of a cycle.  May sound basic and obvious but perhaps something is missing.

I know this is the problem but I don’t want to go into specific detail in the forum.  I gave enough information throughout all my post on what a cycle means to me

I’ve even went out of my way to compare joe to speaking apples and I’m talking about oranges

Next topic money management 🤪

[MoneyT101]

I don't, so I'd like it clarified. And also the suggestion seems to be that using cycles can somehow create dependency - how?

I mean a real dependency, not the kind of pseudo dependency which doesn't affect the possible outcomes from one spin to the next. In probability terms, a real dependency should change the sample space.

link:s://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=17115.0

Simple dependency shared in the forum

[Tinsoldiers]

I don't, so I'd like it clarified. And also the suggestion

Let me put my understanding. A cycle is a set of unique outcomes. The moment a repeat happens it closes a cycle. In a span of 37 spins in an European roulette, there can be a minimum of one cycle to a maximum of 37 cycles theoretically. 

Cycles don’t create dependency.  However there is a relationship between cycles that starting element of these cycle sets are prominent from a probability point of view because of the nature cycles are constructed.  Example for an even chance cycle - red and black, the possible cycles are R, RB if the cycle starts with R. In this scenario, it goes to say that starting element of next cycle has a 75% probability to be the starting element of the previous cycle. This relationship can not be misconstrued to be a dependency. However the suggestion in the past has been this way of looking at roulette spins as short unique number  streams can help in identifying a way to change expectations(does it??, I haven’t got a clue).

In probability terms, a real dependency should change the sample space.

Right. There are ways to do this. In math term there are ways to get P(A and B) =P(A).P(B|A) in roulette.  There is no way next spin is dependent on any of the previous spins. It is absurd even to expect this.

It is all in the definition of your events. We need at least two streams to exhibit any kind of dependency.

One example is, People have been speaking earlier about using order of position stream as a dependent stream to the spin stream. What is the probability that a repeat happens in spin stream and the order of position stream is low.  Given a repeat happens in one stream, the probability of order stream being low even chance is much much higher than 50%. There goes your dependency.

Even simpler is consider a line stream and a street stream. What is the probability that a line stream repeat happens in the next spin given street stream repeats in the next spin. There goes inherent dependency.

I have totally not considered whether this can Be used to construct a systematic play to win in roulette as discussion is beyond winning. 

[Tinsoldiers]

But if you somehow combine them, maybe you can use it to compliment each other

Again devil is in the detail. What is this somehow part. Be clear on what you are trying to say before jumping to another topic.  It doesn’t help anyone and I understand your intention was to discuss clearly the math behind everything without any personal attacks. No personal attacks here, can you please explain your understanding of this “somehow”.

According to me This “somehow” doesn’t exist.  If it doesn’t exist LLN is still going to come in. Do you agree?

[Tinsoldiers]

Looking for ideas going forward

Mick I really liked your idea of (1,9), (2,8)...(5) from the other post. Trying to see how it can influence different streams.

Else, what we are doing is brainstorming, no one has a solution as far as I know. If we stumble on a idea or a solution it is good. The more we question the basics and the facts and more we discuss, may be.... may be we will unearth something worthy.

[Blueprint]

Yet, I was advised you could not 'stumble' and to 'not think in solutions.'

[luckyfella]

Given a repeat happens in one stream, the probability of order stream being low even chance is much much higher than 50%. There goes your dependency.

Can this be interpreted simply as greater than 50% of the time the first repeat hit inside the first 18uniques ?

The order of this "order stream" has no statistical significance.

The probability of binomial distribution is more relevant,
P(x) = nCx.px.q(n-x)

[Tinsoldiers]

Can this be interpreted simply as greater than 50% of the time the first repeat hit inside the first 18uniques ?

Absolutely. Let me not comment on the formula though :p

But let’s not get into whether it is statistically significant or not, as that then leads on to whether we can create an edge or not.  Everything has a mathematical explanation because roulette is either maths or physics. 

The simple question was how to create dependent events in probability terms and these are two examples.

[MoneyT101]

Can this be interpreted simply as greater than 50% of the time the first repeat hit inside the first 18uniques?

Yes true

But also if you think of it the second stream gives you a stream that consists of the other and it’s dependent on it. 

Like redd said you can use it by itself and it’s just as random. But every number you play according to the new stream correlates to the original table

So we have found another dependent event.

Originally I said if you can break any assumption then you can find a way to get ahead.  Redd created dependent stream.....

No I want the other side of the argument...who says this isn’t dependent?

[Tinsoldiers]

Yet, I was advised you could not 'stumble' and to 'not think in solutions.'

Stop sulking and speak for yourselves. On a slightly different point of view, there are good and bad advices, but the prerogative to follow them or not is yours and yours only.

[Blueprint]

Stop sulking and speak for yourselves. On a slightly different point of view, there are good and bad advices, but the prerogative to follow them or not is yours and yours only.

Sulking?  Pointing to your contradictions is not sulking.  You may want to check your English definitions.   And the prerogative to be full of sh!t is yours, as well.

[luckyfella]

No I want the other side of the argument...who says this isn’t dependent?

We can create all sorts of betting decision based on order stream or whatever of what to bet, when to bet and how much to bet. This makes our bet decision dependent on past spins.

That does not mean the outcome of such order stream based betting decision is dependent on past spins.

Our dependent betting decision does not equate to dependent outcome.

[Tinsoldiers]

We can create all sorts of betting decision based on order stream or whatever of what to bet, when to bet and how much to bet. This makes our bet decision dependent on past streams.

That does not mean the outcome of such order stream based betting decision is dependent on past spins.

Our dependent betting decision does not equate to dependent outcome.

To the point.

But why are you assuming that we have to create a betting decision based on past spins. Creating a decision based on this is again absurd, as we all know it doesn’t work and no one can predict.

You have got two dependent streams, what is stopping you from doing a fixed templatized bet on these streams instead.  A thought, or as Mick would prefer an idea. 

[Tinsoldiers]

Pointing to your contradictions is not sulking. 

What did I contradict.