Theories, Myths, Facts And Ideas

[MoneyT101]

Ok I see what you are saying... accuracy is increased not negating the LLN

Can you give an example what would be considered negating the LLN?

Because in a large sample choosing line and winning within 3 spins will affect the average and it will not be close to the expected value on bets placed.  So the LLN will not make sense regardless how many spins you take into consideration

So both unpredictable and LLN can be categorized in the same group 🤔

Do you understand my argument?  If I’m wrong about it.  I don’t mind admitting it just saying it’s close to the same thing

[luckyfella]

However you look at this, it comes down to being able to 'rule out' certain options. If there's 6 possible options and we can find a reason/dependency to rule out 3 of those options, we'll be betting at better odds than expectation.

It's either rule out or rule in.

In MoneyT's example, lines is a subset of high low. It won't work.

Think of something less connected on another plain.

[luckyfella]

Coming back to what we were discussing.I agree that the given is not a given until you know the result. But this isnt a proof that this cannot be used. As you rightly said, roulette is a dynamic game with multiple event streams to look at.  May be there is an event stream hiding somewhere there, unless there is a proof that it doesnt exist, which can help us in using this dependency within the same spin.

Since we are in maybe territory, it is not irrefutable wrong for some of us to be biased in our opinion on the maybe part that it might be there.

The ignorant, uneducated, mistake, deluded, personality disorder, scammer comment is opinionated in nature.

[Still]

I want one person to come forward and say I asked for them to share info with me. 

If you ask someone to help you construct a spreadsheet to test an idea would that be like asking for information?

[Joe]

Coming back to what we were discussing.I agree that the given is not a given until you know the result. But this isnt a proof that this cannot be used. As you rightly said, roulette is a dynamic game with multiple event streams to look at.  May be there is an event stream hiding somewhere there, unless there is a proof that it doesnt exist, which can help us in using this dependency within the same spin.

Since we are in maybe territory, it is not irrefutable wrong for some of us to be biased in our opinion on the maybe part that it might be there.

Ok, but then if you believe that a 'dependent' stream might be there (it's just that nobody has found it yet), then to be consistent, you can't also believe that roulette is a game of independent trials. It's impossible to prove that there is no dependent stream because there are an infinite number of possible streams, and you can't test them all, but that doesn't prove that there are any. All the logic and evidence suggest that there are none.

Anyone is entitled to believe what they want of course, even when there is no logic or evidence in favour of it.

So if you believe that dependent streams exist then you must also deny that the next spin is independent of the previous spin, for any spin you choose in the stream, wherever it is. If you agree that the next is independent of the previous spin, you also agree that it entails that sequences are also independent of previous sequences, which is the proof that no dependent streams can exist.

[luckyfella]

Ok, but then if you believe that a 'dependent' stream might be there (it's just that nobody has found it yet), then to be consistent, you can't also believe that roulette is a game of independent trials. It's impossible to prove that there is no dependent stream because there are an infinite number of possible streams, and you can't test them all, but that doesn't prove that there are any. All the logic and evidence suggest that there are none.

Anyone is entitled to believe what they want of course, even when there is no logic or evidence in favour of it.

Agree with the bolded.

Finally, we have agreement.

It's important this statement comes from you.

And I hope my stand is clear.
(I don't have to state it again.)

[Joe]

And I hope my stand is clear.

So, just to confirm : you believe that roulette is not a game of independent trials?

[luckyfella]

So, just to confirm : you believe that roulette is not a game of independent trials?

What I believe as a person is immaterial.

I chose not to answer your question.
It will open another round of discussion which I have no interest to participate in.

[MoneyT101]

If you ask someone to help you construct a spreadsheet to test an idea would that be like asking for information?

Read what blueprint is saying....then decide if your post makes sense.

Blueprint insinuates that I made this topic to get information from other ppl on creating a wining bet.

Now does any spreadsheet I asked of you, what 3 to 4  years ago on a labby idea.....Have anything to do with blueprint insinuating I made this topic to get new information to create a winning bet

[Joe]

I chose not to answer your question.

No need to be defensive; if you believe outcomes are not independent I won't try to convince you that they are or ridicule your belief. 

Ok try this one : apart from AP and physics, do you believe that the only way to get an edge is if outcomes are not independent?

[luckyfella]

Ok try this one : apart from AP and physics, do you believe that the only way to get an edge is if outcomes are not independent?

Yes, and that's what I have written all along.

Anyway, I am a layman with no specific undergraduate education major in statistics. As I wrote, I studied A level stats with a B grade 3 decades ago with calculations of area under the curve as my favourite. The rest I learnt from yours and jerome posts, most others from youtube videos. I believe I know enough of what statistics is after refresher course.

[Still]

Read what blueprint is saying....then decide if your post makes sense.

Blueprint insinuates that I made this topic to get information from other ppl on creating a wining bet.

Now does any spreadsheet I asked of you, what 3 to 4  years ago on a labby idea.....Have anything to do with blueprint insinuating I made this topic to get new information to create a winning bet

Well one way to get info is to posture as someone who already has an edge.  At that point you don't have to solicit for info. You could just wait till someone puts something in your lap via PM.  Assuming you already have what it takes they might assume they give up nothing and take no risk to give you info unsolicited. This posture would be like a spider waiting with its web. I don't see another posture that would illicit edge making info from people who think they've earned their knowledge through their own hard work and can't see how the info would apply to any random betting environment besides roulette...and so hoard info in a rather miserly fashion.

[Kav]

I don't know if your conversations will lead to any specific theories that will be clearly presented.

I have recently come full circle and returned to total brutal force.
In my free time I played RS something so banal simple that it is hard to believe.
I started the 15 spins session, chose EC with 5 or less hits, and played for the next 15 spins.
I did not count on RTM, but on more stable 15 spins.
Brutal force is Labby with 2000 units bankroll, if the progression did not end in 15 spins window, I continued it in the next session.
Why it works?
and probably one day a bad series will come, but for now, there is a big plus.

IMHO the most valuable post on the whole thread.

[luckyfella]

The discussion on this thread has revealed that no one has conducted large data test of all the infinite permutations of roulette spins to prove that every possible outcome are  independent.

Everything else are opinions.

[luckyfella]

The discussion on this thread has revealed that no one has conducted large data test of all the infinite permutations of roulette spins to prove that every possible outcome are  independent.

Everything else are opinions.

If anyone is 100% certain of independent roulette spins, he has to present mathematical proof of such covering all possible permutations.