another way to understand why systems fail

[Steve]

One way of understanding roulette is like this:

Say you have your system, with your triggers and bet selection. It all makes sense to you. You think you see patterns.

So then you place your bets.

What happens next?? Everything changes. The next spin is totally random. So the pattern you thought you saw is now totally messed up (unless you think mistake basic probability for patterns).

This happens on every new spin.
So you're stuck at 1 in 37.

Thats why almost every system is useless. Yet there are mindless drones following false prophets like turbo, who haven't yet understood the basics. As long as there are people who don't think clearly, attention- seekers will always have a fresh audience.

You cant reason with someone who isnt interested in the truth. Dumb people allow themselves to be misled.

If you aren't dumb, you can still be misled for a short time before you learn better. The truly dumb people spend years repeating the same circles, despite the truth slapping them in the face.

You cannot beat roulette without exploiting cause and effect. Without exploiting cause effect, your bets are random. Repeaters is not a cause. It's the result of normal probability, as useless as saying there will be about even reds and blacks.

Your time is valuable. Dont waste it chasing fairies.

[Proofreaders2000]

That said all bets are luck then.  (even if you have detected a bias
in the wheel there is no guarantee the ball will fall in that sector)

[Proofreaders2000]

Then there are the other unknowns, like dealer
change, ball change rotor speed ball rotations. 

Time of day, gravity...I though it was said a super fast
rotor cannot bet tracked.

It's nothing short of a miracle a bettor wins anything.

[ignatus]

The next spin is totally random. So the pattern you thought you saw is now totally messed up (unless you think mistake basic probability for patterns)

Yes, this is true, I thought there was some kind of "advantage" betting repeting sectors on the Wheel, like "hotzone" and now "Xpander", but then? I ran total random spins (RNG) and got the exact same winrate, which was about 70%....so? Im rather satisfied with a 70% consistent winrate from a Random (Or Live-bet) ?

[Steve]

That said all bets are luck then.  (even if you have detected a bias
in the wheel there is no guarantee the ball will fall in that sector)

No, because bias means bets based on cause and effect.

Proper bias analysis is more than statistical study. You should also observe spins and the wheel for typical clues for bias.

[Steve]

Then there are the other unknowns, like dealer
change, ball change rotor speed ball rotations.

Time of day, gravity...I though it was said a super fast
rotor cannot bet tracked.

It's nothing short of a miracle a bettor wins anything.

Those are again cause and effect. And its really quite easy to beat wheels. The problem has always been avoiding detection.

[Steve]

I thought there was some kind of "advantage" betting repeting sectors on the Wheel, like "hotzone" and now "Xpander", but then?

Not unless there is bias. Dont confuse normal variance with genuine bias.

[Bigbroben]

Ok Steve.  I agree with all your points.
Thing is, some, if not most people have no time or patience to dive into the physical wheel-reading.  Well I don't have time to go to casinos and try.

So here is a question: I'd want to be at home and practice.  Which wheel should I buy, that would ressemble what most other wheels look like, behavior-wise?
You say it's easy to increase accuracy.  Let's say I'd be average good at learning.  How long (hours, months) would it take to "have an edge"?

3: is allowing bets after ball release a common thing or growing rare?

Thanks!

[precogmiles]

One way of understanding roulette is like this:

Say you have your system, with your triggers and bet selection. It all makes sense to you. You think you see patterns.

So then you place your bets.

What happens next?? Everything changes. The next spin is totally random. So the pattern you thought you saw is now totally messed up (unless you think mistake basic probability for patterns).

This happens on every new spin.
So you're stuck at 1 in 37.

Thats why almost every system is useless. Yet there are mindless drones following false prophets like turbo, who haven't yet understood the basics. As long as there are people who don't think clearly, attention- seekers will always have a fresh audience.

You cant reason with someone who isnt interested in the truth. Dumb people allow themselves to be misled.

If you aren't dumb, you can still be misled for a short time before you learn better. The truly dumb people spend years repeating the same circles, despite the truth slapping them in the face.

You cannot beat roulette without exploiting cause and effect. Without exploiting cause effect, your bets are random. Repeaters is not a cause. It's the result of normal probability, as useless as saying there will be about even reds and blacks.

Your time is valuable. Dont waste it chasing fairies.

I agree 100%. Anyone wasting their time creating or looking for a system while not understanding what random is needs to re-evaluate their approach. There are many members on this forum researching systems, but hardly anyone talking about what 'Random' actually is.

If the method you choose is not increasing the accuracy of the prediction then you are just guessing. Repeaters do not work. Most systems being used are either not playable in real life situations or are built on delusions.

Even if the law of thirds was real, most system players wouldn't know how to take advantage of it. Most people do not understand what 'random' is, so they use the only thing they know which is the psudo-reality concept of 'probability' to claim they have an edge, 70% winrate does not mean anything if random decides to keep giving you 20% winrate. You only need to lose your bankroll once in 'real life'.

The only things that work are VB and Precognition/inuition. Why waste your precious time on systems?

Wake up. Neo.... the matrix has you.

[precogmiles]

70% winrate does not mean anything if random decides to keep giving you 20% winrate. You only need to lose your bankroll once in 'real life'.

Correction: -20% winrate.

[Steve]

Thing is, some, if not most people have no time or patience to dive into the physical wheel-reading.

What does work is another matter. I was just explaining why the usual systems lose, so people can focus on NEW things.

So here is a question: I'd want to be at home and practice.  Which wheel should I buy, that would ressemble what most other wheels look like, behavior-wise?

Just record spins from online casinos. Setting up and maintaining wheels is not necesarry. Use s bot to automatically record spins, and re-login as needed.

You say it's easy to increase accuracy.  Let's say I'd be average good at learning.  How long (hours, months) would it take to "have an edge"?

Depend on the wheel mostly. Could be anywhere from an hour, to a few weeks. But as you find new conditions, you'll need to learn new things.

3: is allowing bets after ball release a common thing or growing rare?

Most casinos allow late bets to maximize revenue. It's very common.

[Mister Eko]

I agree 100%. Anyone wasting their time creating or looking for a system while not understanding what random is needs to re-evaluate their approach. There are many members on this forum researching systems, but hardly anyone talking about what 'Random' actually is.

If the method you choose is not increasing the accuracy of the prediction then you are just guessing. Repeaters do not work. Most systems being used are either not playable in real life situations or are built on delusions.

Even if the law of thirds was real, most system players wouldn't know how to take advantage of it. Most people do not understand what 'random' is, so they use the only thing they know which is the psudo-reality concept of 'probability' to claim they have an edge, 70% winrate does not mean anything if random decides to keep giving you 20% winrate. You only need to lose your bankroll once in 'real life'.

The only things that work are VB and Precognition/inuition. Why waste your precious time on systems?

Wake up. Neo.... the matrix has you.

Okey, lets join to this. Random. Why do you feel that random selection is a bad thing? If random, if bias, if vb, you and me we have the exact chance to win on the wheel. You have no edge because you play vb and I play system. I play system based on wheel activity, but with trigger choices, but again based on the wheel connected excellently with the roulette board. You have dont clue how big is the peoples mind, how clever there are, and you are too stupid to understand, that who create a winning system, he will not tell you a little shit about his system, because it is like a give you my house, car, wife, and my luxus life for free, which for I had worked thousands of hours a year. It was just an example, but hope you understand. Neccessary to say, that methods, triggers, or patterns are useless things. They are for you, because you read, or tryed just the basic of them, bit not thousands of hours. In this case nobady wins from roulette in long run, except bias players, which is absolutely stupidness. Millions are playing roulette daily, bewtween them are winning system/method players, you can calm down. They are nicely plays in silence without attention.

Randomness is not a big deal in roulette. You will lost with bias too, and I will lost with my method too. Important is to overcome the losses without going down more.

Cheers

[Steve]

Random means whatever the f*ck you do, the payout is still below the win rate.

With single numbers, thats 1 in 37 win rate, but with only 35-1 payout.

35 is lower than 37. THAT's why it matters.

Why is it so hard to understand?

Will a bet selection with random accuracy ever make 35 greater than 37?

Come on, its really, really simple. So when uneducated people say crap like random is best, anyone with understanding scratches their head, wondering what school they went to.

[Steve]

Randomness is not a big deal in roulette. You will lost with bias too,

Do you understand what an edge is?

[precogmiles]

Okey, lets join to this. Random. Why do you feel that random selection is a bad thing? If random, if bias, if vb, you and me we have the exact chance to win on the wheel. You have no edge because you play vb and I play system. I play system based on wheel activity, but with trigger choices, but again based on the wheel connected excellently with the roulette board. You have dont clue how big is the peoples mind, how clever there are, and you are too stupid to understand, that who create a winning system, he will not tell you a little shit about his system, because it is like a give you my house, car, wife, and my luxus life for free, which for I had worked thousands of hours a year. It was just an example, but hope you understand. Neccessary to say, that methods, triggers, or patterns are useless things. They are for you, because you read, or tryed just the basic of them, bit not thousands of hours. In this case nobady wins from roulette in long run, except bias players, which is absolutely stupidness. Millions are playing roulette daily, bewtween them are winning system/method players, you can calm down. They are nicely plays in silence without attention.

Randomness is not a big deal in roulette. You will lost with bias too, and I will lost with my method too. Important is to overcome the losses without going down more.

Cheers

I use precognition not wheel bias.

Randomness is a very big deal in roulette. That is the whole reason the casinos exist!

You and the rest of the system players are stuck in the matrix. You don’t know or care what random is and want to beat a random game using maths and statistics (which are epistemologically based on inference). You can not use induction to arrive at a prediction for random, that is crazy!

The only two viable options are;

To change random to non random by way of VB and therefore find true causal relationships between all the parameters in the wheel spin.

Or to get non-local knowledge of the next spin using precognition.

Systems do not work! In my opinion