another way to understand why systems fail

[Mister Eko]

What makes you think that it's promising?  For example, why do you feel that it should work? (I'm not picking on you, just trying to help.)

In the meantime, know that your goal, and really everyone's goal that wants to win, is to become an AP. 

AP = Good achievement.

I think is promising cause I win more than I loss, and I overcome losses most of the time. I think is should work because I not play mechanically, I change my bet selection if it requires, and I play in the same time the wheel and the roulette board connected with each other.

Before you said AP -> Advantage Play. Now it is Good achivement? I think we misudnerstood each other, or idk what AP means or what is the difference between system/method players and AP. I use triggers, pttern, progression, past spins. But wheel frequency, activity too. I think I mix, now it is AP?

[Steve]

AP is anything that gives you a legitimate advantage.

I use triggers, pttern, progression, past spins

If you use these in a way that still gives you random accuracy, your system changes nothing.

[Ricky]

AP is anything that gives you a legitimate advantage.

If you use these in a way that still gives you random accuracy, your system changes nothing.

Yes, progressions used to overcome losses due to losses caused by the random wheel not behaving in accordance with your betting strategy offers no edge. I prefer not to use progressions in defining my bet selections but if I were to use a progression it would be to account for times when the wheel generates results that are the reverse of player good luck. eg just as a player can have bad luck guessing the EC result of any sequence of spins, the wheel normally has bad luck generating a predetermined sequence of EC results. This could be a predetermined randomly generated sequence of Black/Red or the repeat of a predetermine pattern from past spins . But on occasion, as analogous to being hit by Lightning, the wheel can seem to be reading ones mind and generate such freakish results. So using a controlled progression knowing the odds are in your favour that a non rigged wheel will NOT generate a pattern consistently to beat you every session can be a viable solution. But it should have controls built in to protect your bankroll. Eg no good betting your entire bankroll using a progression that can wipe you out. Use 10% of your bank and you sill have 90% left to continue.

The same progression approqach can be used when using a Roulette computer due to previous bets not going to plan knowing that most bets should hit within your predetermined standard Deviation of pockets from that calculated by RC.
Alternatively you can just flatbet knowing you will win more times than you lose.

Cheers,
Ricky

[Ricky]

No, because bias means bets based on cause and effect.

Proper bias analysis is more than statistical study. You should also observe spins and the wheel for typical clues for bias.

Yes, using Dealer Signature or any other physics related attribute of a live wheel spin is using cause and effect and expecting future spins will mimic the patterns produced by wheel bias. Unfortunately, these days Casinos are making use of RRS technologies which is countering the effects of dealer signature and biased wheels. I suspect even Roulette Computers will be impacted by the effects of RRS technology. It all depends on the short term wheel rotation changes made in 5-6 spins being measured.

Cheers,
Ricky

[precogmiles]

Yes, progressions used to overcome losses due to losses caused by the random wheel not behaving in accordance with your betting strategy offers no edge. I prefer not to use progressions in defining my bet selections but if I were to use a progression it would be to account for times when the wheel generates results that are the reverse of player good luck. eg just as a player can have bad luck guessing the EC result of any sequence of spins, the wheel normally has bad luck generating a predetermined sequence of EC results. This could be a predetermined randomly generated sequence of Black/Red or the repeat of a predetermine pattern from past spins . But on occasion, as analogous to being hit by Lightning, the wheel can seem to be reading ones mind and generate such freakish results. So using a controlled progression knowing the odds are in your favour that a non rigged wheel will NOT generate a pattern consistently to beat you every session can be a viable solution. But it should have controls built in to protect your bankroll. Eg no good betting your entire bankroll using a progression that can wipe you out. Use 10% of your bank and you sill have 90% left to continue.

The same progression approqach can be used when using a Roulette computer due to previous bets not going to plan knowing that most bets should hit within your predetermined standard Deviation of pockets from that calculated by RC.
Alternatively you can just flatbet knowing you will win more times than you lose.

Cheers,
Ricky

“Luck”?

Please explain what this word means to you.
What exactly is bad luck or good luck.

How can you use logic/rationality to arrive at “good luck”?

[Ricky]

I agree 100%. Anyone wasting their time creating or looking for a system while not understanding what random is needs to re-evaluate their approach. There are many members on this forum researching systems, but hardly anyone talking about what 'Random' actually is.

If the method you choose is not increasing the accuracy of the prediction then you are just guessing. Repeaters do not work. Most systems being used are either not playable in real life situations or are built on delusions.

Even if the law of thirds was real, most system players wouldn't know how to take advantage of it. Most people do not understand what 'random' is, so they use the only thing they know which is the psudo-reality concept of 'probability' to claim they have an edge, 70% winrate does not mean anything if random decides to keep giving you 20% winrate. You only need to lose your bankroll once in 'real life'.

The only things that work are VB and Precognition/inuition. Why waste your precious time on systems?

Wake up. Neo.... the matrix has you.

I agree with most of what you say about systems. The thing is, unless you are good at VB, have an RC or the live wheel is not using RRS technology, we are left with other methods that must contend with the random spin. There are several ways to do this:
1. play random against random - ala Permutations Pro
2. study randomly generated patterms that are constantly forming from spin to spin and device a bet selection that covers many of those common patterns within a fixed spin cycle say 37 spins and make use of the 35-1 or even 17-1 payout to allow for the inaccuracy of following such systems.

With option 2, I would not discount the general concept of numbers repeating 2 or more times  within a spin cycle and using this fact as part of  a well formulated strategy that includes other patterns. But to say this one pattern can be relied on continuously and effectively used in a non changing bet selection will not grant the player an advantage. Again if you use the payout of 35-1 or 17-1 you have room to account for the error in selection. We do know that any  random  spin can be defined in terms of 3 outcomes within a given cycle:
   1. A unique number
   2. A single repeat of a unique number already spun
   3. A second or greater repeat of a repeated number

The same idea can be said of other patterns and other groups like splits/streets/lines/quads/dozens/columns/EC.
But then there are even other groups that can be defined in terms of the above 3 outcomes. This can include sectors of the wheel, numbers on the carpet etc.

I do not know about precog but I would not say it in itself offers a better advantage than a well thought out system not based on cause and effect. I appreciate the existence of positive and negative energies that are beyond our understanding and ability to measure and prove. There is no doubt these forces have resulted in extraodinary feats by humans. But how to apply these forces to the random game of roulette I am not sure. The only thing I can say is when I am play certain numbers I have resorted to focusing on those numbers as the wheel turns and am amazed when the ball actually follows my prediction and lands on the selected number.

Cheers,
Ricky

[Steve]

1. RRS is rare enough to not be a concern. Its very easy to detect if its being used.

2. Even if every wheel used it, it generally halves a computer edge. So it makes a 50% edge about 25%. It's not a problem.

3. If the RRS settings are extreme to nullify a computer edge, the rotor speed changes would be visually obvious, lose trust of ordinary players, and lose the casino revenue.

Casinos can stop AP, at the expense of losing more revenue than they save.

Winning is not hard. Avoiding detection is the main problem.

[Steve]

1. play random against random

How can you turn random against itself?

If you have random anywhere in the equation, the result is random.

[Mister Eko]

AP is anything that gives you a legitimate advantage.

If you use these in a way that still gives you random accuracy, your system changes nothing.

How can I know I have random accuracy or not?

[Ricky]

“Luck”?

Please explain what this word means to you.
What exactly is bad luck or good luck.

How can you use logic/rationality to arrive at “good luck”?

Quite simply good luck is when an outcome results in your favour and bad luck is when it does not.

Like anything in life you make your own luck. Some luck can be calculated in the knowledge you have gained from life experiences being used in your favour.

Cheers
Ricky

[Ricky]

How can you turn random against itself?

If you have random anywhere in the equation, the result is random.

If you read what Permutations Pro is about it is doing exactly this. Rather than the player guessing what the random outcome of the next spin will be you force the wheel to spin a series of spins (not just one) using a predermined pattern and then you bet AGAINST this random event happening. So the idea is you should win more times than you lose as chaos has a hard time of generating consistent patterns. Think of it in terms of taking the role of the casino and the casino the role of the player. For the Casino to win they need to consistently generate spins more regular than the chaotic nature of random. If they can achieve this against ALL the casino players using this method then they are either cheating or there is a casino god that protects the profits of casinos and curses the player for committing the sin of gambling their life savings away.

LOL

Cheers,
Ricky

[precogmiles]

I agree with most of what you say about systems. The thing is, unless you are good at VB, have an RC or the live wheel is not using RRS technology, we are left with other methods that must contend with the random spin. There are several ways to do this:
1. play random against random - ala Permutations Pro
2. study randomly generated patterms that are constantly forming from spin to spin and device a bet selection that covers many of those common patterns within a fixed spin cycle say 37 spins and make use of the 35-1 or even 17-1 payout to allow for the inaccuracy of following such systems.

With option 2, I would not discount the general concept of numbers repeating 2 or more times  within a spin cycle and using this fact as part of  a well formulated strategy that includes other patterns. But to say this one pattern can be relied on continuously and effectively used in a non changing bet selection will not grant the player an advantage. Again if you use the payout of 35-1 or 17-1 you have room to account for the error in selection. We do know that any  random  spin can be defined in terms of 3 outcomes within a given cycle:
   1. A unique number
   2. A single repeat of a unique number already spun
   3. A second or greater repeat of a repeated number

The same idea can be said of other patterns and other groups like splits/streets/lines/quads/dozens/columns/EC.
But then there are even other groups that can be defined in terms of the above 3 outcomes. This can include sectors of the wheel, numbers on the carpet etc.

I do not know about precog but I would not say it in itself offers a better advantage than a well thought out system not based on cause and effect. I appreciate the existence of positive and negative energies that are beyond our understanding and ability to measure and prove. There is no doubt these forces have resulted in extraodinary feats by humans. But how to apply these forces to the random game of roulette I am not sure. The only thing I can say is when I am play certain numbers I have resorted to focusing on those numbers as the wheel turns and am amazed when the ball actually follows my prediction and lands on the selected number.

Cheers,
Ricky

Interesting ideas. I would say that most people haven’t taken the precog route seriously because of fundamental prejudices against it. As you have experienced yourself strange things we could even refer to as “lucky” happen more often than we think is possible.

My contention with systems is that they the are usually too rational. Without an element of the esoteric or non-rational then it is almost impossible to predict random, apart from general ideas like repeaters. Even if we do know repeaters will exist in a certain number of spins, how do you use this information? And you are al battling against the house edge in terms of payouts and table limits. You are a extreme disadvantage.

You must improve the accuracy.

[Ricky]

My contention with systems is that they the are usually too rational. Without an element of the esoteric or non-rational then it is almost impossible to predict random, apart from general ideas like repeaters. Even if we do know repeaters will exist in a certain number of spins, how do you use this information? And you are al battling against the house edge in terms of payouts and table limits. You are a extreme disadvantage.

The way I see it if you know what you are looking for then you lay a trap just like catching a bear. How do you catch your prey? You could use a trap, dig a hole or use a gun. Any of these methods requires skill in understanding how a bear thinks or actually finding the bear to be able to use the gun. A trap can be camoflagued as not to be detected and placed in a know walking trail used by the bear in the past. So knowledge of your enemy will give you an advantage in catching your prey as oppoased to just lay a trap in any location and hoping to get lucky.

Same knowledge can be used when designing a roulette system to catch those inevitable patterns. With a 35-1 payout and betting 1 number you have 35 attempts to catch your prey before it becomes a losing proposition. Place 2 traps out and bet 2 numbers you still have 17 atempts to get it right.

Cheers,
Ricky

[precogmiles]

Quite simply good luck is when an outcome results in your favour and bad luck is when it does not.

Like anything in life you make your own luck. Some luck can be calculated in the knowledge you have gained from life experiences being used in your favour.

Cheers
Ricky

Can a system produce lucky results?

Can a computer be lucky?

Will the longer you play roulette make you more lucky?

What is the relationship between luck and belief/knowledge?

[Steve]

Rather than the player guessing what the random outcome of the next spin will be you force the wheel to spin a series of spins (not just one) using a predermined pattern and then you bet AGAINST this random event happening.

This wont work. The wheel or rng doesnt care what you do.