I think I finally cracked it...

[falkor2k15]

This is about understanding concepts and how to apply them when making your own system. Which part(s) do you understand/not understand? Look at what's being presented and ask questions based on that - not open ended questions that show you haven't read the topic properly. Take note of what ati said:

There are no examples here, there is no system in this thread. In some threads we discuss theories and ideas, it's not always about systems with fixed set of rules that tells you what to bet when.
One can ignore it and move on, wait for the next thread to see what other people come up with. Or one can start thinking, invest time, energy, and do some actual work.

[Steve]

Falkor, your explanations only make sense to you.

[Clf7]

Falkor are you high buddy!? All the Guys here telling you that they dont understand a thing....The problem is only your "explanation".

[falkor2k15]

The term "dependency" is a bit ambiguous. There are various types of dependencies. Two streams of numbers can be dependent, when one depends on the outcome of the other. These are functionally dependent.
And there is statistical dependence which is linked to conditional probability. The well known dozen cycles example, where the end position of a cycle is statistically dependent on the starting position.
Or we can look at starting/ending halves of a cycle, where under the condition of a repeat we are more likely to see a number from the same half that started the cycle. And the opposite, under the condition of a unique, we are more likely to see a number form the other half.
Every spin is a new event, it can be either a repeat or a unique. Every new outcome is dependent on something. I believe this is related to "processes" that rrbb said we should look for.


We know what we need for a winning system, the problem is putting it all together and the lack of creativity. Nothing works straight out of the box.

As Pri said "carefully creating those events to make them dependent is in our hands" and that we need "creative applications".
Dyk said "sometimes we need to cleverly construct the pigeons and the holes"
red said we need to "construct" the bets

ati, looks like it's just you and me in this topic now, as I've lost the crowd...

It seems my strategy is based on the functional dependency as opposed to the statistical dependency. I've been unable to find an exploit for the latter. Let's take dozen cycles and position cycles.

We can bet a number of pigeons depending on the stage of each cycles stream:
Doz Spin 1: Order 1
Doz Spin 2: Order 1, Order 2
Doz Spin 3: Order 1, Order 2, Order 3
Pos Spin 1: Order 1
Pos Spin 2: Order 1, Order 2
Pos Spin 3: Order 1, Order 2, Order 3

That means we can bet between 1-6 pigeons at any one time; however, due to the triple dozen deadlock situation we can only bet 1-2 pigeons at a time. That being said: if 2 pigeons are represented by the same dozen then we could potentially cover up to 4 pigeons maximum?

When 2 or more pigeons are represented by single dozens then I've printed them on-screen in my sim, otherwise I've ignored 1 for 1 pigeons because the payout on those does not outweigh the risk:

d1p2 d2p1
d1p3
d1p1
d1p1
d1p1
d2p2 d1p1
d2p1

d1p3 d2p1
d1p1
d1p1
d2p2 d1p1

d1p2 d2p1
d1p1
d1p1
d1p1
d1p1
d1p1
d1p1

d1p3 d2p1
d2p1
d1p1
d1p1

d1p2
d1p2 d2p1

d1p2 d2p1
d3p3 d1p2 d2p1

d2p1
d1p1
d1p1

d1p2 d2p1
d1p1
d1p1
d2p2 d1p1

d2p1

d2p2

d1p2
d1p2 d2p1

Am I on the right track or do I need to dig deeper...?

[Steve]

Falkor thats more of the same. Its very unclear.

[ati]

Guys, I know it looks messy at first, but Falkor has been presenting the data in this style for years.



You see the list of numbers

8
3
19
33
8
18
28

left columns shows how many units to bet on what position
first column to the right from the numbers shows the High/low cycle. 2 means high, 1 means low
HLCL2o2 means High/Low cycle, cycle length is 2, repeat order is 2
second column to the right from the numbers shows the bet result

And on some table, dozen bets are also included. It's not that difficult, but you have to have some knowledge about the concepts discussed mainly in the "random thoughts" and the "different view on roulette numbers" threads

[Steve]

I understand enough of it to know it doesn't work. Progression, highs, lows, cycles etc.

If anyone is openly explaining their system, there is nothing to hide. So if they want people's attention, some options include:

1. Get someone to code the system on RX, then everyone with RX can easily test.

2. Test on MPR and show everyone the results.

[falkor2k15]

There's no complete system yet as we are still trying to construct one based on the concepts we are trying to discuss:









What comes next...?

[Steve]

Don't bother with progression until a system wins flat betting.

Otherwise your testing gives bullshit results  because any profits are based on random bet sizes.

It has all been said before.

[Joe]

Yeah it's random, but this is not about the next spin - it's about betting on events instead of spins and understanding that events are dependent on previous events - contrary to individual spins that are independent.

It makes no sense. If individual spins are independent, then events - which consist of individual spins - must also be independent.

If you can't grasp the logic of this then look at the results of your tests, they all point to the same conclusion that any past event is independent of any future event.

[Steve]

Its the same contradiction many people struggle with.

If you start learning what others learned for themselves in decades, you'll save yourself a lot of time.

Take the shortcut. Its much easier.

[ati]

It makes no sense. If individual spins are independent, then events - which consist of individual spins - must also be independent.

Not necessarily if there are conditions. I have showed a very simple example in this post.

The next number within a number cycle has over 50% probability to be from the other half that started the cycle, under the condition that it is not a repeat!  You might not accept this fact, but it remains true. The bias is very small, and you never know when the repeat comes, so the wins and losses even out in the long run.
Yes, the next spin is independent, but the next spin event (repeat or unique) is statistically dependent on past spin events.

There are many other biases / dependencies / imbalances that no one sees or considers. And bringing those things together could potentially produce positive results.

If you start learning what others learned for themselves in decades, you'll save yourself a lot of time.

That's the mistake some of us tries to avoid. Old is not always right. New things are always being discovered, that can make old believes and facts invalid.

"Everyone knew it was impossible, until a fool who didn't know came along and did it."

[RouletteGhost]

Falkor with his yearly bullshit again.

[falkor2k15]

It makes no sense. If individual spins are independent, then events - which consist of individual spins - must also be independent.

If you can't grasp the logic of this then look at the results of your tests, they all point to the same conclusion that any past event is independent of any future event.

It's a kind of magic! 

[falkor2k15]

Falkor with his yearly bullshit again.

This is the BEST topic in the last year! Brand new concepts never before demonstrated right here...