The "Statistical Imbalance" fallacy

[gizmotron2]

Good call. The only thing which affects the odds of a bet winning is how many numbers you bet, not what came before.

I don't agree. The odds are irrelevant. What matters are your guesses and if they are part of a win streak or a losing streak. The odds can't tell you of the current conditions. Only the results after they occur. I've killed the casino with patterns of rhythm that kept perfect beat for 36 spins in a row before starting to fall apart. The same 12 numbers went win, win, lose for a perfect repetition. I trained myself to see patterns like this so that I could win a monster session. But a guy with a slide rule up his rectum can't see things like this because they are so busy trying to confirm that trends or patterns don't matter. I wonder how many millions are left on the table because people don't take chances on perfect occurring things.

[travis]

Absolutely. Any group of 12 numbers isnt different than a column or dozen.

statistically 12 numbers is not equal to a dozen

[Joe]

To have 10 reds in a row you must first have 9 in a row. Ten in a row is dependent on nine in a row already occurring and has nothing to do with the odds.

Ok, but having seen 9 doesn't affect the future outcome.  Of course it's trivially true that having seen 10 in a row there must have been 9 in a row (in hindsight), but what good is knowing that?

The point of the link is to show what dependence means when it actually does affect future outcomes, like the cards example of replacement and no replacement.

[Joe]

The odds can't tell you of the current conditions. Only the results after they occur.

The 'current' conditions are always only the results after they occur, and those current conditions don't affect future conditions.

[stringbeanpc]

Kimo Li and carvigno/carpanta

Thanks to you both for sharing. I appreciate it and study as my situation allows.

As Kimo Li knows I have both of his books, and since I play on a single 0 wheel I am more familiar with that book.

I have discovered a few things

1) The double 00 wheel has what I will call a "mirror" around different parts of the wheel. Enough said.
2) In six NON-ZERO spins I notice a similar pattern between groups of 12 numbers and
3) In six NON-ZERO spins I notice a similar pattern between groups of 9 numbers

In my opinion, using Kimo Li books are the best way to learn the wheel layout.

Best Regards,

[gizmotron2]

The 'current' conditions are always only the results after they occur, and those current conditions don't affect future conditions.

Brilliant deduction. So with nothing to go on or prevent a coincidence you can speculate on the next ten spins being still in the win streak column. There is no math that makes all win streaks end just as you see or notice them. There is a way to speculate on a win streak and that is by winning the first try. You bet 10 units on a first try event. If it wins you take your original 10 off and 5 more to help out against the next first try. You then take the remaining 5 units and bet them as 5 single bets that are meant to ride one time, two times, three times four times, and last a fifth time. I'm sure you can figure out what will happen as you keep taking winners down. The steps pay 2 on the first try, 4 on the second try, 8 on the third try, 16 on the fourth try and 32 on the fifth and last ride bet. That's a total of 62 if you make it to the last winner. It's just 6 won guesses in a row, even if you jump around with your bets. And all that trying is done with half of your winnings on the first bet. All this is possible if you just check to see if you are in a condition where you win a lot more first try bets than you lose.

[Ricky]

Nah, thats no different to random bets.

What is random bets? Why does a system have to be better than random bets? What if your random generated bets can be made profitable using, as this thread explores, the flow of the random spins generated? I argue that any good system must have at its core the ability to read random and understand its flow. All systems based on repeaters, uniques, unhits, imbalance etc are all trying to read the flow of random which generates these phenomina of streaks of patterns. So to exploit the random nature of the roulette wheel can have an advantage if you know how to read random.

That debunks the myth that a system must be better than random to be profitable.

Cheers,
Ricky

[Steve]

Ricky you didn't debunk anything. Random means your average win rate for single number bets is 1 in 37. The payout is below that. Learn the basics.

[gizmotron2]

Ricky you didn't debunk anything. Random means your average win rate for single number bets is 1 in 37. The payout is below that. Learn the basics.

I've tried to show that average win rate and profit from it rate are different if you make it different. Say you only have the skill to see huge down streaks and huge up streaks. You bet $100 on win streaks and  $5 on anything else that is not a win streak per spin. I'll try to illustrate this point with a graph:

[Steve]

average win rate and profit from it rate are different if you make it different

If you make it different, then it's advantage play. That's what advantage play means - to make it different - to have an advantage.

Say you only have the skill to see huge down streaks and huge up streaks. You bet $100 on win streaks and  $5 on anything else that is not a win streak per spin.

They aren't streaks as such. They are just the past results. the word "streak" implies it was a pattern, rather than random behavior.

If it's random, then those past spins you perceived as streaks wont help, at all. Why? Because its random, meaning there was no pattern.

[gizmotron2]

If you make it different, then it's advantage play. That's what advantage play means - to make it different - to have an advantage.

They aren't streaks as such. They are just the past results. the word "streak" implies it was a pattern, rather than random behavior.

If it's random, then those past spins you perceived as streaks wont help, at all. Why? Because its random, meaning there was no pattern.

Funny Steve. The pit boss has no problem whatsoever seeing me in a win streak. As far as it being an advantage, that's semantics I suppose. It's a concept as old as the hills. All I did was attach it to trends and patterns. The explanation is a matter of teaching a skill and giving people a way to practice it. How trends are attached to win streaks is a matter of skilled observation. If you lack that skill and imagination then it might as well be Unicorns of Mars. I hinted at it for 14 years and then showed it all in plain view last July. I don't care if people are skeptical. It's the truth and it has always been the truth. It's just a matter of time. Just about everyone can't see the connection before it is showed to them. There is this T-Shirt that my sister got me that says "I can tell you but I can't understand it for you." I don't really care who can't understand this. It's in plain view, well demonstrated and exampled, and it's free. All I can do is listen to people and let them figure it out or not.

[Steve]

Funny Steve. The pit boss has no problem whatsoever seeing me in a win streak

A gambler sees 3 reds in a row, and thinks it's a red streak, so he bets red and wins. He thinks he exploited a streak. In reality it was just plain random probability. It's really old fallacy.

As far as it being an advantage, that's semantics I suppose

No, it's black and white. You either have an advantage, or you don't.

In the end, if you're winning - keep doing it.

[gizmotron2]

A gambler sees 3 reds in a row, and thinks it's a red streak, so he bets red and wins. He thinks he exploited a streak. In reality it was just plain random probability. It's really old fallacy.

Congratulations. You know exactly what it is. A lot of gamblers get all hung up on luck. Now figure this if you can. Sometimes these fallacies synchronize with win streaks. When they do it's just a coincidence. Nothing more. Now I expect you to know this, that it's not magic or some claim of prediction, you know, a fallacy to think it is meaningful. It's not. It's just a trend connected to a momentary time that it is also winning. The good thing for me is that I know it's just a temporary coincidence.  So I'm not all hung up on this trend stuff doing anything more than having good timing. I'm a savvy enough player to attack the little spots and dropping back to minimum bets why I wait for more. Most gamblers are all hung up on winning big streaks and wanting more. There is a reason that I do this instead of just using a blind random guess.  It would be interesting if you could figure out what that is.

[Steve]

It's not complicated. When it's random, neither the universe or the wheel give a crap what patterns, trends or streaks you think you see, or bet on. The result will always be the same accuracy as random betting. That means your strategy changed absolutely nothing.

[Steve]

Also dropping back to minimum bets won't help to profit, at all. Each spin is independent.  All you'll have is different bets of different sizes.