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The "Statistical Imbalance" fallacy

Started by falkor2k15, Feb 22, 10:58 AM 2020

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0 Members and 38 Guests are viewing this topic.

gizmotron2

Quote from: Tacwell on Feb 29, 05:03 PM 2020Roulette spins will continue to be random, with a negative betting expectancy, regardless of what patterns or trends you witness or think might happen, that's all hindsight, but your narcissistic tendencies won't let you see that, and you'll likely use more sarcasm as your defense.

Perhaps this is evidence of projecting one's own personality traits? Is it me or is it you?

link:s://:.youtube.com/watch?v=OMkrosLHIEs
Reading Randomness is a single thread. It is backed up by a software instruction thread and software download threads. The Even Chance Pro 1.4 version is the best version to practice on.
gamblingforums dot com/threads/reading-randomness.14733/

gizmotron2

Quote from: Steve on Feb 29, 04:38 PM 2020
Past rng spins dont affect the future, at all. You're stuck with 1in 37. So besides luck or precog, how is it possible to win with higher accuracy based on past spins?

By definition and logic, its not.
It's impossible.

That's interesting enough. Let's talk about luck. You can't know exactly the moment that it starts. There is no way to know how long it will last long before it does tend to last a while. And nobody knows when it will end. But it is also clear that you can win while you are in a lucky streak. I hope that what I just said is logical up to this point?  It's hard to discuss things when some people got side tracked and off the main track. So I'm stipulating that this is true up to this point.

These conditions of luck are without a mathematical cause and effect capacity. I believe that to be true. They can be explained by reason of an explanation of variance or standard deviation. But when they occur they can't be explained as to how. To me they just happen. 

So if I understand what you are saying it is impossible to beat the game of Roulette  based on past spins unless luck is included in the factoring of a win. Is that correct?
Reading Randomness is a single thread. It is backed up by a software instruction thread and software download threads. The Even Chance Pro 1.4 version is the best version to practice on.
gamblingforums dot com/threads/reading-randomness.14733/

Kimo Li

Quote from: gizmotron2 on Mar 01, 10:14 AM 2020
I have never seen a mechanical system beat Roulette.

I am not surprised. The HG happens to be a mechanical system, simple, user friendly, and highly effective.
Your concept of "Global Effect and Elegant patterns" sounds like it's something special. And yet, it's appears complicated to learn. Perhaps if you try to make it a more of a mechanical process, players can readily understand.

"Writers use common words to express complex thoughts, not the opposite," Mark Twain.

gizmotron2

Quote from: Kimo Li on Mar 01, 11:49 AM 2020
I am not surprised. The HG happens to be a mechanical system, simple, user friendly, and highly effective.
Your concept of "Global Effect and Elegant patterns" sounds like it's something special. And yet, it's appears complicated to learn. Perhaps if you try to make it a more of a mechanical process, players can readily understand.

"Writers use common words to express complex thoughts, not the opposite," Mark Twain.

Here is another one: "Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please." Mark Twain

I can simplify this easily. Let's use one characteristic only. Let's use the singles on the weak side for any even chance bet. I will assume that people know what this looks like in a chart. I will provide an example from the original thread if one is needed.

Now to make it the global effect it must happen almost continuously across all the 6 tracked EC's in the chart. It will likely not occur simultaneously but where one group and set is in singles for a while it might abruptly end. Then the characteristic will start up in another group, or more than likely already be happening. Now it jumps around from group to group or changes sides in the same group. But this clear domination of a singles on the weak side keeps occurring, sometimes for hours.

To ignore this effect, this global characteristic, is a sin for people that want so desperately to find a way to win. This situation is a bag of gold laid into your lap if you are skilled enough to take it. For the record this skill and this opportunity have gone absent from all the discussion forums for decades. To put this into context, this is a set of past spins that equate to a monster sized win streak.

I once observed a set of 24 numbers dominate four tables at the same time at a Caesar's Palace for four and one half hours. I was in one of my first experiences of Reading Randomness and lost my paycheck to gambler's fallacy. I bet against it to end. But I was amazed at it happening. I had no experience searching for large occurring coincidences.

The Elegant Pattern is different . It tends to only last from 30 minutes to 45 minutes. It's a perfect reoccurring pattern. The first time I saw it was the same 12 numbers hitting and missing in a perfect repeating pattern. It would hit twice then miss once. It kept going for more than 30 minutes. I murdered the casino with it a drew a huge crowd.

Now I hope that these simple explanations clear up people's possible communication difficulties. It's not mechanical to identify a pattern that you don't have memorized yet is easy to identify. I'm entitled to be amused by people that ignore it and consequently never see this. For me it's like seeing the swimming instructor on the Titanic feeling sad because he has very few opportunities to teach. I fall back on this one: "I can Explain It to You But I Can't Understand It for You."
Reading Randomness is a single thread. It is backed up by a software instruction thread and software download threads. The Even Chance Pro 1.4 version is the best version to practice on.
gamblingforums dot com/threads/reading-randomness.14733/

carvigno

Rhythm and sincronicity are the key words while tracking a string of numbers showing before your eyes in the tote board. Tracking all 3 EC and all 3 columns at the same time. When proper conditions arise you bet on 6 numbers (not always the same obviously) with high probability to make a hit. Those who are not too lazy to put some work perhaps can descifer this riddle to make nice profits.
Have a nice Sunday.

Carpanta

gizmotron2

Quote from: carvigno on Mar 01, 01:34 PM 2020
Rhythm and sincronicity are the key words while tracking a string of numbers showing before your eyes in the tote board. Tracking all 3 EC and all 3 columns at the same time. When proper conditions arise you bet on 6 numbers (not always the same obviously) with high probability to make a hit. Those who are not too lazy to put some work perhaps can descifer this riddle to make nice profits.
Have a nice Sunday.

Carpanta

It's not a riddle to me. I built my free to use practice software with some combo bet capabilities built into it. If you see reds dominate and odds dominating at the same time then you just bet on those nine numbers.

Here's one that a lot of people don't consider. If you see reds dominate then you can bet on 14 of the 18 red numbers and 10 of the black numbers also with a 2 column bet. The reverse is true for black domination too.
Reading Randomness is a single thread. It is backed up by a software instruction thread and software download threads. The Even Chance Pro 1.4 version is the best version to practice on.
gamblingforums dot com/threads/reading-randomness.14733/

Kimo Li

Quote from: gizmotron2 on Mar 01, 01:46 PM 2020
It's not a riddle to me. I built my free to use practice software with some combo bet capabilities built into it. If you see reds dominate and odds dominating at the same time then you just bet on those nine numbers.

Here's one that a lot of people don't consider. If you see reds dominate then you can bet on 14 of the 18 red numbers and 10 of the black numbers also with a 2 column bet. The reverse is true for black domination too.

Let's say you do bet the nine numbers (red odd numbers). Murphy will show up and red even numbers will show up or black odd numbers. What then? Do you continue to look for these patterns and bet? Or do you have a "recovery" betting option? Are there clear rules of engagement?

It's one thing to detect patterns. What good is it if it does not come in? How do you deal with that scenario? Sounds like gambling to me.

gizmotron2

Quote from: Kimo Li on Mar 01, 02:01 PM 2020
Let's say you do bet the nine numbers (red odd numbers). Murphy will show up and red even numbers will show up or black odd numbers. What then? Do you continue to look for these patterns and bet? Or do you have a "recovery" betting option? Are there clear rules of engagement?

It's one thing to detect patterns. What good is it if it does not come in? How do you deal with that scenario? Sounds like gambling to me.

I don't bet this way. It's bad odds for getting a win. I'm just saying that I see times when it goes into a monster sized domination. I don't wait for monster sized opportunities but I'm always ready just in case one happens.
Reading Randomness is a single thread. It is backed up by a software instruction thread and software download threads. The Even Chance Pro 1.4 version is the best version to practice on.
gamblingforums dot com/threads/reading-randomness.14733/

carvigno

Quote from: gizmotron2 on Mar 01, 01:46 PM 2020
Here's one that a lot of people don't consider. If you see reds dominate then you can bet on 14 of the 18 red numbers and 10 of the black numbers also with a 2 column bet. The reverse is true for black domination too.

Im talking about playing only 6 numbers not all the wheel excluding 0 and a few more numbers.

gizmotron2

Quote from: carvigno on Mar 01, 02:11 PM 2020
Im talking about playing only 6 numbers not all the wheel excluding 0 and a few more numbers.

So explain how you select those 6 numbers please, or one number for that matter.
Reading Randomness is a single thread. It is backed up by a software instruction thread and software download threads. The Even Chance Pro 1.4 version is the best version to practice on.
gamblingforums dot com/threads/reading-randomness.14733/

carvigno

Quote from: gizmotron2 on Mar 01, 02:18 PM 2020
So explain how you select those 6 numbers please, or one number for that matter.

I'm talking about people working on it and looking for how this is possible. I never said that I will explain. It took me 15 years to discover this way of playing. Nobody will expect me to explain it in 10 minutes here or anywhere. It wouldn't be too prudent I think. The key is in what I explained above. That is more than anyone has ever told me except one person.

Serendipity

Riddles... Riddles... Riddles...
Whether you think you can or you can't, you're probably right!

Kairomancer

Quote from: gizmotron2 on Mar 01, 12:41 PM 2020
Here is another one: "Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please." Mark Twain

I can simplify this easily. Let's use one characteristic only. Let's use the singles on the weak side for any even chance bet. I will assume that people know what this looks like in a chart. I will provide an example from the original thread if one is needed.

Now to make it the global effect it must happen almost continuously across all the 6 tracked EC's in the chart. It will likely not occur simultaneously but where one group and set is in singles for a while it might abruptly end. Then the characteristic will start up in another group, or more than likely already be happening. Now it jumps around from group to group or changes sides in the same group. But this clear domination of a singles on the weak side keeps occurring, sometimes for hours.

To ignore this effect, this global characteristic, is a sin for people that want so desperately to find a way to win. This situation is a bag of gold laid into your lap if you are skilled enough to take it. For the record this skill and this opportunity have gone absent from all the discussion forums for decades. To put this into context, this is a set of past spins that equate to a monster sized win streak.

I once observed a set of 24 numbers dominate four tables at the same time at a Caesar's Palace for four and one half hours. I was in one of my first experiences of Reading Randomness and lost my paycheck to gambler's fallacy. I bet against it to end. But I was amazed at it happening. I had no experience searching for large occurring coincidences.

The Elegant Pattern is different . It tends to only last from 30 minutes to 45 minutes. It's a perfect reoccurring pattern. The first time I saw it was the same 12 numbers hitting and missing in a perfect repeating pattern. It would hit twice then miss once. It kept going for more than 30 minutes. I murdered the casino with it a drew a huge crowd.

Now I hope that these simple explanations clear up people's possible communication difficulties. It's not mechanical to identify a pattern that you don't have memorized yet is easy to identify. I'm entitled to be amused by people that ignore it and consequently never see this. For me it's like seeing the swimming instructor on the Titanic feeling sad because he has very few opportunities to teach. I fall back on this one: "I can Explain It to You But I Can't Understand It for You."
This is similar like saying; "Look there was 19 blacks in a row."
So if you are savvy gambler all you need to do is to play that dominant EC, in this case red, or any other variation based on repeating past events or patterns.
You can create a fancy name to that phenomena for that matter to look more knowledgeable among clueless punters.

It sounds logical and very practical at first,
yet if you examine that a bit deeper and run some trend following simulations, you would see that there is absolutely no advantage here. The odds of winning remains the same.
Sometimes you win big and you will share the glorious memory of that hunt, but that does not change the fact that most of the time the pattern busts just enough time and your losses adds up, so the strategy eventually lose to the house edge.

Don't believe me? Do you wanna bet?
Let's make that simulation happen.

Kairomancer

The only way to make this work consistently is to know the working conditions in advance to avoid the losing first guesses.
To do that it requires having an advantage.

The million dollar question: what does it take to have that advantage?

Steve

Many of you will stop wasting time and going in circles, if you carefully read and understand the basics at :.roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy/
"The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions"
Roulettephysics.com ← Professional roulette tips
Roulette-computers.com ← Hidden electronics that predicts the winning number
Roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy ← Why most systems lose

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