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The "Statistical Imbalance" fallacy

Started by falkor2k15, Feb 22, 10:58 AM 2020

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0 Members and 38 Guests are viewing this topic.

Kimo Li

Quote from: Steve on Mar 01, 06:46 PM 2020
Many of you will stop wasting time and going in circles, if you carefully read and understand the basics at :.roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy/

I have read your article, very informative. Unfortunately, it does not apply to the HG, only to the run of the mill strategies found all over the internet. Statistical Imbalance has it's place when properly identified using data analytics. Effective strategies carried out with precision takes advantage of such a regular occurrence.

Steve

Quote from: Kimo Li on Mar 01, 07:07 PM 2020Statistical Imbalance has it's place when properly identified using data analytics

Not when the spins are independent and random.
"The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions"
Roulettephysics.com ← Professional roulette tips
Roulette-computers.com ← Hidden electronics that predicts the winning number
Roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy ← Why most systems lose

Kimo Li

Quote from: Steve on Mar 01, 08:08 PM 2020
Not when the spins are independent and random.

I understand your mindset. Regardless if spins are independent or random, data analytics make it predictable. How do you think weather predictions are becoming more accurate?

Steve

What in RNG is predictable? That there will be an even spread of reds/blacks? The law of a third, and similar nonsense?

Quote from: Kimo Li on Mar 01, 09:55 PM 2020How do you think weather predictions are becoming more accurate?

The weather is NOTHING like RNG.

Can you give me just ONE principle everyone can test, which can validate any of your theories? No riddles. Just something clear and simple.
"The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions"
Roulettephysics.com ← Professional roulette tips
Roulette-computers.com ← Hidden electronics that predicts the winning number
Roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy ← Why most systems lose

Kimo Li

Quote from: Steve on Mar 01, 10:28 PM 2020
What in RNG is predictable? That there will be an even spread of reds/blacks? The law of a third, and similar nonsense?

The weather is NOTHING like RNG.

Can you give me just ONE principle everyone can test, which can validate any of your theories? No riddles. Just something clear and simple.

The sheer fact that it's unpredictable makes it predictable. I learned in life, "for every move, there is a counter move."
If you can master that principle, you will be able to understand RNG.

Kimo Li

This is what RNG looks like.

Steve

You are sounding like John solutude with his raindrop method, which is classic fallacy.

Unpredictable doesnt mean predictable in any sense that matters.

What you said is the same as saying: nothing we can do changes anything, so we have an advantage.

It's senseless. Saying you mastered it doesn't make your statement more viable.

And you didn't give even one simple principle that people can test. I still havent seen anything, not a single thing, that validates your theories. So far everything points the other way.
"The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions"
Roulettephysics.com ← Professional roulette tips
Roulette-computers.com ← Hidden electronics that predicts the winning number
Roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy ← Why most systems lose

Steve

That's not what RNG looks like, unless you are making pretty patterns from repeating principles that you made up. In that case, you'll get things like fractals. But they cant be used to predict anything in the future except averages, and averages cant be used to predict odds. So the data is retrospective only.
"The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions"
Roulettephysics.com ← Professional roulette tips
Roulette-computers.com ← Hidden electronics that predicts the winning number
Roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy ← Why most systems lose

Kimo Li

Quote from: Steve on Mar 01, 11:11 PM 2020
That's not what RNG looks like, unless you are making pretty patterns from repeating principles that you made up. In that case, you'll get things like fractals. But they cant be used to predict anything in the future except averages, and averages cant be used to predict odds. So the data is retrospective only.

Sorry, Steve you have no clue. Why would you? You have not been exposed to this type of thinking. This is the closest you will ever come to predicting RNG. It is a code. It has nothing to do with averages.

Clf7

Steve you are a wealthy man (maybe rich) buy his lesson for 30K,must be peanuts for you, and solve finally the riddle If the HG from Kimo Li can or not predict rng   ;D :twisted:

Steve

Quote from: Kimo Li on Mar 01, 11:16 PM 2020Sorry, Steve you have no clue.

And that's what you say, when you're asked to provide ONE tangible piece of evidence to support your theories. It's much easier to just say I've got no idea, right?

Quote from: Kimo Li on Mar 01, 11:16 PM 2020You have not been exposed to this type of thinking.

Not so sure about that. So far everything I've seen of yours is classic fallacy, which I've been through before.

Quote from: Kimo Li on Mar 01, 11:16 PM 2020This is the closest you will ever come to predicting RNG. It is a code

Yes, it is a code. It's an algorithm. But the algorithm is different for every RNG. There's no one-size-fits-all "code". that's one problem. Another problem is you don't know the variables for that code (algorithm).

You talk a lot Kimo. But as I said before, I've seen nothing from you that supports your claims. In fact, everything points the other way. I've been here with many other self-professed gurus, and I know where it leads - circles.

All truth comes out eventually Kimo.

Quote from: Clf7 on Mar 01, 11:21 PM 2020Steve you are a wealthy man (maybe rich) buy his lesson for 30K,must be peanuts for you, and solve finally the riddle If the HG from Kimo Li can or not predict rng

Why would anyone buy anything without a shred of proof, or even a single thing to validate claims? Even worse, why would you buy something when all the proof points towards the claims being false?
"The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions"
Roulettephysics.com ← Professional roulette tips
Roulette-computers.com ← Hidden electronics that predicts the winning number
Roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy ← Why most systems lose

Kimo Li

I say this, you say that.

"Statistical Imbalance has it's place when properly identified using data analytics. Effective strategies carried out with precision takes advantage of such a regular occurrence."

We agree to disagree.


Steve

Quote from: Kimo Li on Mar 02, 03:09 AM 2020I say this, you say that.

I say this, the entire community of educated professionals in gaming and math say the same thing as me, and you say something different.

Quote from: Kimo Li on Mar 02, 03:09 AM 2020Statistical Imbalance has it's place when properly identified using data analytics

No, it doesnt have a place when the outcomes are random. Any temporary imbalance is meaningless.

Quote from: Kimo Li on Mar 02, 03:09 AM 2020Effective strategies carried out with precision takes advantage of such a regular occurrence."

There is no precision. The accuracy is the same as random. That's my point.

Quote from: Kimo Li on Mar 02, 03:09 AM 2020We agree to disagree.

Not exactly. Some of us just understand it.
"The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions"
Roulettephysics.com ← Professional roulette tips
Roulette-computers.com ← Hidden electronics that predicts the winning number
Roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy ← Why most systems lose

Joe

Quote from: Kimo Li on Mar 01, 11:06 PM 2020
This is what RNG looks like.

LOL! No it doesn't. A visual depiction of RNG doesn't show any patterns like in your graphic, it's just white noise.

link:s://tectrolabs.com/2014/07/04/a-visual-comparison-of-bad-and-good-hardware-random-number-generators/

Why do you write obvious falsehoods? (no need to answer, I know why).
Logic. It's always in the way.

carvigno

An excerpt from Wendor, a remarkable german roulette play scholar:

This post is really only for "freaks" and those who want to become one .
It is written for those of you who want to deal with matter a little more deeply.
Symmetries - the sometimes hidden order in nature
By Laurenz Widhalm, ÖAW
Everyone learns at school that energy is always preserved. And that is why any attempt to construct a perpetual motion machine will inevitably fail. But why is energy retained? Is there a deeper reason for this, or is it simply a natural law that can only be accepted but not questioned?
Symmetries in time - symmetries in space
The fascinating thing is: there is this deeper reason, and it lies in a symmetry that seems so natural that nobody really wants to question it: the symmetry of the physical laws in time. In other words, a physical law that is found today will still apply tomorrow. If this were not the case, there would be no need to do science anymore; even more: we couldn't rely on anything anymore, maybe our televisions wouldn't work tomorrow, yes, we couldn't even be sure that the sun would rise again tomorrow.
A violation of time symmetry would be equivalent to physical laws that can change from day to day. Since this is obviously not the case, the conservation of energy can be concluded.
Symmetry and energy
You don't have to be a scientist to realize that there are regularities and that our past experiences can be applied to the future. To put it abstractly, this everyday knowledge is simply a symmetry in time. And as you can show mathematically, it follows from this symmetry that there is a physical quantity that does not change over time. And this size is called - energy! So the energy conservation theorem, which otherwise could only be believed, became something that can be traced back to a deeper symmetry.
Physical laws in the universe
However, symmetry in time is not the only symmetry in nature. Another is that the physical laws are the same everywhere in the universe. This symmetry in space results in the preservation of the momentum - important not only for billiard players, but for many everyday processes.
OK. as far as our good DR. Laurenz Widhalm.
But what really interests us: How can you use this knowledge to predict the behavior of a chaos generator (eg roulette wheel) ?! ,
It was only when I continued to study this fascinating principle. I was concerned with physics, I came up with the idea.
Chaotic symmetries
- and that was the real breakthrough !!
Chaotic dynamics is one of the most fascinating fields of activity in natural science today. Processes that previously seemed completely unpredictable, such as turbulence in water currents or the behavior of tropical storms, are being researched and are revolutionizing our understanding of nature. Symmetry, on the other hand, is a traditional area of mathematics and stands for static, classic dimensions in nature. According to previous understanding of science, both areas are located at the other end of the mathematical spectrum. So can there be a connection between chaos and symmetry at all? Field and Golubitsky make this connection . They describe how a chaotic process can lead to symmetrical patterns:If the above-mentioned turbulence in the flow of a body of water was photographed about once per second and all the pictures were placed on top of one another, structure would appear in chaos. The authors explain the mathematics of such processes and provide the formulas that can be used to imitate them on the computer.
In this way, images of symmetrical chaos are created that appear strangely familiar to the viewer due to their symmetry and are overwhelmingly beautiful. No wonder, since they strikingly resemble symmetrical patterns in nature and many decorative designs - from motifs in art to common logos and ceramic tiles.
These chaotic SYMMETRIES are especially important for random generators like roulette. If one observes certain rhythm events (figures) in the past, with a little practice it is possible to anticipate a new manifestation of similar (events) figures and to react accordingly.
And THAT is the real point.
symmetry violation
if there is no symmetry, one speaks of a violation of symmetry.
Nothing's perfect - not even some symmetries.  The world is full of imperfect symmetries - called "broken" by physicists.
Luckily! Because if our world were completely symmetrical, we would probably not die of boredom for one reason: Because we would not exist at all . Because in a completely symmetrical world, everything would be the same. There would be no different interactions, there would be no stars, planets, people - no @Sachsen and no @Wendor and no other users here. No differences. Nothing.In other words, we are the anomaly, the exception that confirms the rule. Through our very existence and the ability to even philosophize about it, we seem to be directly violating the 2nd law of thermodynamics, which, to put it simply, means: More and more disorder must arise from a relative order - right up to the final chaos and resolution , Life as we know it contradicts simple Natural law. Unfortunately, only apparently. Because, we only have the "time not available" to see and to experience that not only do we pass as humanity, but everything we see and experience as "our world". In the end, symmetries and their natural laws prevail. And the "bleak peace" is restored in the universe - without us.So it might be. Until then, we want to have some fun and do something good for US and others. So, let's use our knowledge of these laws - before they reciprocate. And a casino is the most honest and brutal "test track" for our knowledge. When the quantum M. wave function collapses, there are only facts. When red appears, THIS IS FACT and there is nothing more to say. Like in business (through advertising) - or in politics - through “big speeches”. What can they come up with - to NOT have to be honest. But, this is not our topic.
Many of you have already observed the almost aesthetic “knitting patterns”   in the tote board that amazes you. As if the game table at Rot / Schw follows a certain rhythm. For seemingly inexplicable reasons. And exactly these rhythms are used by me for the conception of the variable paroling game. I have always tried to see events, objects and everything that is "bustling" in "my" world in an overall context. And I always noticed certain regularities (patterns). On the social-social (cultural) - as well, on the material level.

Carl G. Jung in his Collective Unconscious described it like this:
The structures that arise from the collective unconscious are archetypes, archetypes that are typical of humanity in general.
The collective unconscious is a kind of intellectual inheritance that is reborn in every brain structure, an inheritance of human development. In this collective unconscious are the wisdom, the accumulated history, the common dispositions of man, the sources of his highest aspirations and lowest opinions. This common reason also explains the impressive thematic similarities in religion, myth, fairy tales, artistic creations and above all in our dreams. And this part of the psyche deals with the fundamentals of existence, birth, life and death, the conflicts of growing up to mature independence (what Jung calls the individuation), hunger and heroism, marriage and murder.
I just want to illustrate the basic principle of the Variable Paroli game somewhat illustratively - from a somewhat unusual perspective.
It is just one of many brushstones. And NOT meant to impress anyone with my remarks.
The time would be a shame for that. But when one or the other has become curious and a little more thoughtful - I have achieved my goal.

WENDOR

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