The "Statistical Imbalance" fallacy

[Steve]

Belief is a powerful thing, and is important to understand in this domain.

Belief that flapping arms makes you fly doesnt change reality.

[Kimo Li]

Kimo, the limitation is reality, expressed as really basic math, which you dont understand.

You dont even understand your constant contradictions. Like random spins that hit better than random but dont, but do. Youre just another experienced player masquerading as a guru.

I am an educated man. Contradictions only enter your mind because your references are limited, making it seem contradictory. In fact, it's a paradox. I don't judge your intellect. Don't judge mine.

[Kimo Li]

Belief that flapping arms makes you fly doesnt change reality.

All of the scientific, math, and logically thinkers, with all of their credentials, proof, theorems, cannot fathom the idea that something outside their way of thinking is possible. Of course flapping arms will not make any one fly. It's been proven. The reality is there are some individuals who can win with roulette using a concept that is not published in any media venue.

There is nothing to debate. That is my reality.

[Kali49]

Belief that flapping arms makes you fly doesnt change reality.

That's correct.
But we didn't knew that before we tested it was the case.

The belief that bayesians talk about is in terms of updating the probabilities given New evidence, a belief that is estimated given updated information about the state of the random process.

I agree that roulette has no memory, past spins don't affect the next spin, but let's take an example of a bayesian inference that May change your mind.

Let's say we have a bag  that contains 4 marbles , we don't know the colors of the marbles. We only know there is two colors that any marble may have Red or Green.

We take one marble form the bag see what Color it is and put it back in the bag, we do this three times.

We observe the following colors:
Red - Green - Red

Now given the data

How many marbles are green and how many are red in the bag?

Hint : The bag may contain:

Red - Red - Green - Green
Or
Red - Red - Red - Green
Or
Green - Green - Green - Red

Solution:

Let's see if you can get the correct answer, before I show the solution, which is really interesting and very valuable for any roulette player.

[Kali49]

all the so called experts here, are invited to provide a solution.

If you do say two  are red and two are green, or three reds and one green or whatever, without justifying your answer doesn't count as a valid solution.

[Kairomancer]

From that data alone there is no way to know for sure.
It could be any of those combinations.
Of course there are two red marbles drawn.
One has to examine if they are identical in nature. If we assume the reds are identical, then my assumption that there is no way to know for sure.
Whether the reds are identical it could imply diffent scenarios.

[Kali49]

From that data alone there is no way to know for sure.
It could be any of those combinations.
Of course there are two red marbles drawn.
One has to examine if they are identical in nature. If we assume the reds are identical, then my assumption that there is no way to know for sure.
Whether the reds are identical it could imply diffent scenarios.

I forgot to mention that you are expected to give the probability that the answer is one of the three options I hinted earlier.

Yes there is a logical mathematical way to know the answer with the highest probability of being correct.

[Steve]

It very easy to say "you just dont know the secret". Its a simple defection, when you have nothing valid. Turbo did the same, as did countless self professed gurus that almost everyone eventually learned what they were.

Still I havent seen a shred of proof supporting your claims. Again, everything points the other way.

I'm a scientific person. "You dont know the secret" doesnt cut it.

[Kairomancer]

In that case reds were drawn 2:1 ratio to green.
Yet if we account for 3 drawing and assume that reds must be the dominant, we still drawn a green, which is less likely if the reds are indeed dominant.
I guess the highest probability is 2 reds and 2 greens.

[Kali49]

In that case reds were drawn 2:1 ratio to green.
Yet if we account for 3 drawing and assume that reds must be the dominant, we still drawn a green, which is less likely if the reds are indeed dominant.
I guess the highest probability is 2 reds and 2 greens.

Let's see what the other members will say before we reveal the solution.

But tell me, if there is a logical step by step process to solve this puzzle, wouldn't that enlarge your understanding of probability?
Wouldn't it be interesting to apply it in some way to our favorite game roulette?

[Kairomancer]

It is not applicable to roulette, unless there is a bias. In roulette we already know all the colors.
Previous drawings not affect the probability of the next drawings based on logic alone.

[Kali49]

It is not applicable to roulette, unless there is a bias. In roulette we already know all the colors.
Previous drawings not affect the probability of the next drawings based on logic alone.

Start by solving this puzzle and you will get the point.

[Kairomancer]

Having said that I agree with gizmotron on that sometimes synchronistic patterns do occur and sometimes they are happen to be in a working state.
I buy into the idea that random patterns can trick you to believe there are linguistic patterns occuring that you can speak for a short window of opportunity based on the current history as it happens with you as a player in mind.

[Clf7]

Kimo could you say why and how the outcome is random?

[Kimo Li]

It very easy to say "you just dont know the secret". Its a simple defection, when you have nothing valid. Turbo did the same, as did countless self professed gurus that almost everyone eventually learned what they were.

Still I havent seen a shred of proof supporting your claims. Again, everything points the other way.

I'm a scientific person. "You dont know the secret" doesnt cut it.

I do not have the need to show you proof. If you don't believe or don't care to believe, so what. It really does not matter.
Continue your search. I hope you get there.