Probability probably doesn't exist

[precogmiles]

The many worlds interpretation is probably the best explanation of how reality actually works.

What we refer to probability does not actually exist.

There is a flux which is reffered to as a probability amplitude that can be manipulated and sensed.

Instead of focusing on this illusionary pseudo-reality notion of probability you should focus on what is really happening.

Wake up Neo.

[Kali49]

Probabiliy is a way for us humans to normalize the set of all possible outcomes within a small interval {0,1}.

The many worlds interpretation is a product of probability analysis.

We say it's probable that the many worlds interpretation is a valid assumption.
Not the other way around.

[precogmiles]

Probabiliy is a way for us humans to normalize the set of all possible outcomes within a small interval {0,1}.

The many worlds interpretation is a product of probability analysis.

We say it's probable that the many worlds interpretation is a valid assumption.
Not the other way around.

Yes, so probability probably does not exist.

[Kali49]

It's a concept we invented, you can't ask if it exists or not, when you invent a calculator to help you count, you don't ask if it exists or not.

[Bebediktus3]

Yes, so probability probably does not exist.

Mathematic also not exist... and in casino  ... Its only looks to you that you play and have a chance to win, in reality, you simply gave them your money 

[precogmiles]

It's a concept we invented, you can't ask if it exists or not, when you invent a calculator to help you count, you don't ask if it exists or not.

Which means that probability probably does not exist.

Inferring a effect from a cause is probably a delusion not based on reality.

All inferences are simply maybe

All that is left is belief.

[precogmiles]

Mathematic also not exist... and in casino  ... Its only looks to you that you play and have a chance to win, in reality, you simply gave them your money 

Are numbers real? Maybe mathematics is not real.

Casinos win because people are blind.

If they begin to see reality then casinos would not rely on the illusion of probability.

[Joe]

What we refer to probability does not actually exist.

There are several interpretations of probability, but whatever interpretation you prefer, doesn't mean that probability doesn't 'exist'. It's a quantification of uncertainty, which has value, just as quantifying other things can have value.

Casinos win because people are blind.

Casinos win for many reasons, one of them being that most people don't understand probability. So it must be real enough, at least for some, because they make their living from it (including me).

By the way, not sure if you meant this to be deliberately ironic, but the title of your thread is 'Probability probably doesn't exist'. 

[precogmiles]

There are several interpretations of probability, but whatever interpretation you prefer, doesn't mean that probability doesn't 'exist'. It's a quantification of uncertainty, which has value, just as quantifying other things can have value.

Casinos win for many reasons, one of them being that most people don't understand probability. So it must be real enough, at least for some, because they make their living from it (including me).

By the way, not sure if you meant this to be deliberately ironic, but the title of your thread is 'Probability probably doesn't exist'. 

The biggest mistake people make is thinking a general inference gives them a grasp on what reality actually is.

Black swans didn't exist until they came into existence.

Probability is nothing more than quantifying flawed inference.

A particular number appearing in the next spin has a certainty to it, if you have the ability to sense and manipulated the underlying structure.

If you are blind you can not see the next spin, so you are limited to chance. This is what casinos survive on.

And yes the pun was intended, I wanted to make people understand that our language can not grasp the underlying structure that produces what we call probability.

Regression to the mean is this magical force invented by statistians. They claim RTM is a fact of nature , yet it is a fallacy to apply it.

If you don't know what the origin of RTM is you will forever be blind.

[Joe]

I don't find your argument convincing because there are contradictions and inconsistencies. For one thing, the many worlds interpretation is based on quantum mechanics, which itself is an inherently probabilistic theory. And you even say that maybe mathematics isn't real, but the many-worlds theory is just a consequence of taking seriously the mathematics of quantum theory, so if mathematics isn't real, how can the many-worlds theory be real?

Furthermore, there isn't any hard evidence for the many-worlds theory, and in fact, many scientists believe it's an untestable hypothesis, so it will always be speculative.

Inferring a effect from a cause is probably a delusion not based on reality.

All inferences are simply maybe

All that is left is belief.

Why is inferring an effect from a cause probably a delusion? (and notice again that you're using a term for concept which you say doesn't exist!). Everyone knows that there are causes and effects; that's what science is all about.

There are plenty of inferences which are not 'maybe' and that don't depend on belief or opinion.

Take the classic syllogism :

1. All men are mortal
2. Socrates is a man,
3. therefore, socrates is mortal.

The conclusion 3 isn't 'maybe' true, it is certainly true, given the premises 1 & 2.

And again you're shooting yourself in the foot. You're using a term 'maybe' which means that it lies somewhere between impossibility and certainty. ie, a degree of probability is involved.

[Joe]

Regression to the mean is this magical force invented by statistians. They claim RTM is a fact of nature , yet it is a fallacy to apply it.

This is all completely wrong. RTM is not a 'force' but just a statistical phenomenon based on averages and variance. It is only a fallacy to apply it when you don't understand it. Most gambler's would misapply it because they think that because some event hasn't happened for a long time it must be due soon. That's not RTM, it's gambler's fallacy.

[precogmiles]

This is all completely wrong. RTM is not a 'force' but just a statistical phenomenon based on averages and variance. It is only a fallacy to apply it when you don't understand it. Most gambler's would misapply it because they think that because some event hasn't happened for a long time it must be due soon. That's not RTM, it's gambler's fallacy.

I don't want to be rude but those arguments are pathetic.

[Joe]

Your reply might have actually meant something if you had explained why you think my arguments are pathetic. Give it a shot.

[winforus]

It really depends on what you define as “real. From the highest perspective it’s not real, just like many other things that I won’t bother mentioning - as it’s a whole another topic.

From the perspective of the majority of humans, it’s a “real” concept as Joe has outlined here.

It is possible to transcend it( it won’t be as “real” anymore), although by that time you might lose interest in gambling/roulette all together.

Joe ( or people alike) will not be able to understand it, because it comes from a different paradigm and it requires a shift. In other sense, this is not something that can be understood by pure logic.

This is not to say that the probabality concept is useless and it certainly has it’s place now.

[The General]

Mountains aren't real.  They're just jagged hills.