Variance control vs. Edge from flat-betting

[jay]

One solution is playing speed roulette and be willing to play long periods, if you choose the unlucky side, or change sides.

[6th-sense]

So, your main purpose now, is to look, for a bet selection, that ALWAYS hit WITHIN MATH EXPECTATION!
(What is , math expectation?
eg.
in next 100spins, there may, from45 to 55hit, or any EV 27%,35/37, ecart, or any #@+-#, that
the math boys must nodding head agreeing to ..)
If you can have,
a math selection,
that can produce,
hit within math expectation, 40+%
when next 100 has worst variance, 30/100,
or within math expectation "50/50minus edge", then any $#@& progression, can win.

you could always look at it a different way...get a higher payout for your money..

So, if ,
(oversimplified example)
next 100 has only 30hit, (there never less than 30/100, as virtual limit of variance),
then LABBY cant closed, because labby neefs 33.34% to closed, then to avoid possible 30hit/100 negative variance that bust your br.
Wait for, say 10losses in row, (or long losses with only few hits), then,
next 90 has atleast 30hit, thus 33.33%..that labby has chance to close before 100th spin.

if an ec needs that ratio for Labby to close.....why not use the rolling unhits instead...but keep your eye on the cycle start and stop...rolling basis you are pretty much at that ratio you need for an ec ..
but on less numbers..look at the pic for example ..U is unhit that has hit ..

[6th-sense]

probably a lot more bankroll needed...but hey..you can stop betting and start with the amount your comfortable with using the unhit count on ayks tracker and the ranges...unhits don,t drop instantly on a rolling basis..repeats don,t rise on a rolling basis instantly...or uniques....takes time..

[SWEET]

Thanks 6th-sense, for your ideas, but my poor English, cant really understand your methods.

Winforus and Jay,
seems that we misunderstanding each other ideas.
what I mean is,
say,
imagine you sit at the table, and look at RED/BLACK, to collect data, for next 100spin, increment.
What will happen to EVERY next 100spins?
We cant predict and dont know ...

Three SCENARIO will hit.

1.RED> BLACK up to 70hit/30

2.RED<BLACK, down to only 30hit/70

3.RED almost equal to BLACK 50/50, albeit green.

(real world record=69red/200)

in other word,
if we focus on RED,
then in next 100spins,
all scenario, of,

NEGATIVE VARIANCE of 30hit/100, swing to POSITIVE VARIANCE of 70hit/100....may hit

That millions of permutations, of possible  scenario.

Now the million dollar question.
HOW are we going to bet,
or a bet selection, that can take ADVANTAGE, of all three scenario?
Or in other word,
Can our bet strategy,

win when,
negative hit, ?

when,
almost equal hit, ?

and when
positive hit?

Our bet selection must not static,

eg.
"bet RED only",
no matter what...
then
its deadly, if black keep hitting up to 70/100.

It must flexible,
betting red and stop bet, or change to bet black, when situation warrant.

Simply ask ourself, why my system failed...
because, the winning hit, keep not coming, and my br bust.

[6th-sense]

my point being...is variance is somewhat controlled in the manner of unhits...repeats...are not much out of sync per cycle on a rolling basis after 37 spins....
ie the numbers may shift but its all on the ayk tracker highlighted features...
the variance is contained in the next 37 rolling spins...unhits repeats etc...
not a fallacy
it simply is a fact...
unhits uniques and repeats are set at the end of 37 spins..

next 37 from that you will be able to work the variance method from the least unhits in 37 spins..which shift every spin..to the most within a range...same the opposite  way..

you don,t have to win every spin but you know that you can work with the minimal information per cycle..for or against in stepped profit

[6th-sense]

Basically in this format rolling I’m trying to point out that you already have the unhit numbers and rest of numbers to guide u after a. Cycle I’m a rolling basis

[winforus]

Then I have this proposal for you: We will flip a coin 100 times, and for every tail, I will get $10.50 and for every tail you will get $10. Deal?

No Sweet - you mentioned that people winning or losing has nothing to do with edge, but with variance. Hence I offered you my proposal.

Casinos make money from all of their games due to edge, not due to variance. Why do you think they ban card counters at Black Jack, despite that if you do card counting, you only get 1-2% edge?  Because that's how casinos make money.

Until you understand this fundamental fact, you will be stuck and wasting your time and energy.

Contemplate, accept this fact, and move on to methods that actually increase the accuracy of your predictions.

[Steeefan2014]

No Sweet - you mentioned that people winning or losing has nothing to do with edge, but with variance. Hence I offered you my proposal.

Casinos make money from all of their games due to edge, not due to variance. Why do you think they ban card counters at Black Jack, despite that if you do card counting, you only get 1-2% edge?  Because that's how casinos make money.

Until you understand this fundamental fact, you will be stuck and wasting your time and energy.

Contemplate, accept this fact, and move on to methods that actually increase the accuracy of your predictions.

You're pretty much right about what you said. The edge gives the casino's a constant winning. But, in my opinion, the real winning of the casino's comes from impatience, greed, lack of control, distraction of the ones that risk their money!

[SWEET]

Winforus
& Steeefan2014,
With due respect,
Thanks for your views.

I THINK,
"edge",
only represent,
long stretch of bet, but sometime, 1000spins, could produce extreme variance, there a record of bm,
up to
"only-387hit/1000",
which difficult to win.

Since you insist, only "edge",
single-handedly
causing huge losses,

then,
for example,

1000x(-3%*edge*)

=970hit/1000spin,

Then, please, post, any
permutation, of only 970hit/1000.

and then ,we see, if any

erudite member here,

cant win, even 1 unit,
with their choice of progression.

I can win any permutation, of only 970hit/1000, even before the 1000th spin!

[ati]

You are right, casinos don't even need the house edge to make money. Most people would lose at a zero house edge game too. I'm a good example of that 
Players has finite bankroll, therefore there is a high probability that players stop when they are in the negative and they can't raise their bet any further, or when they lose hope and give up.

There is an article on Wikipedia on this topic link:s://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_ruin

[ati]

SWEET are you P.A?

You write in the same style.

[RayManZ]

my point being...is variance is somewhat controlled in the manner of unhits...repeats...are not much out of sync per cycle on a rolling basis after 37 spins....
ie the numbers may shift but its all on the ayk tracker highlighted features...
the variance is contained in the next 37 rolling spins...unhits repeats etc...
not a fallacy
it simply is a fact...
unhits uniques and repeats are set at the end of 37 spins..

next 37 from that you will be able to work the variance method from the least unhits in 37 spins..which shift every spin..to the most within a range...same the opposite  way..

you don,t have to win every spin but you know that you can work with the minimal information per cycle..for or against in stepped profit

Maybe a little visual image will help see things more clear.

I guess you can ride the wave. Dont bet against the wave. Go with the flow.

The AVG is 13 unhit 14 unique and 10 repeats in a 37 cycle.

See attachment

[falkor2k15]

OK I've figured out the mechanism behind controlling variance.

With HL we can have long losing streaks:
HHHHHLHLLHHLHLLLLHHLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLHHLHLHHHHLLLLLL

Our aim is to get outcomes looking more like:
HLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLHLH

Let's take High-Low Cycles:

HLH
H...

We now have the following outcomes:
Order 1 L locked out
Order 2 L available
Order 1 H available
Order 2 H available

Order 1L cannot follow H, so we begin to control the variance a little - but not much.

If we increase our outcomes from 4 to 6 by bringing in the Cycle Length then we have more things locked after each cycle - now swings back and forth between one set of outcomes and another:
CL1 Order 1 L - locked out
CL1 Order 1 H - available
CL2 Order 1 L - locked out
CL2 Order 1 H - available
CL2 Order 2 L - available
CL2 Order 2 H - locked out

If we want to improve on the above and take variance to new levels of control then we need to change order 1 to equaling the same as the last 2 defining elements, else if one of the previous 2 defining elements are different then it's order 2.

So instead of A1,A2,A3 vs. B1,B2,B3 we get something like A1,A2 vs. B1,B2 vs. C1,C2.

Since outcomes get locked out over 2 cycles then we are increasing uniques - so we must bet uniques - and the gap between wins should reduce significantly!

[falkor2k15]

This is looking very good now for our break even game:

Order 1/2 based on single defining element = 75% vs. 25%
Order 1/2 based on last 2 defining elements (follow the last order 1) = 80% vs. 20% 
Order 1/2 based on last 2 defining elements (follow the last order 2) = 66% vs. 33%

The game remains break even just based on 2 EC cycle outcomes - but the stats have changed - indicating that the variance has changed.

[falkor2k15]

I made a mistake with the last stats, but here I've taken order 1 (based on last 2 defining) and the cycle length to make 4 new outcomes.

1,1
1,2
1,4

2,1
2,2
2,4

3,1
3,2
3,4

4,1
4,2
4,3
4,4

1,1,1
1,1,2
1,1,4
1,2,1
1,2,2
1,2,4
1,4,3
1,4,4

2,1,1
2,1,2
2,1,4
2,2,1
2,2,2
2,2,4
2,4,3
2,4,4

3,1,1
3,1,2
3,1,4
3,2,1
3,2,2
3,2,4
3,4,4

4,1,1
4,1,2
4,1,4
4,2,1
4,2,2
4,2,4
4,3,1
4,3,2
4,3,4
4,4,3
4,4,4

Above 3 can only follow 4 - and because of the lock out over 2 cycles, sequences involving 3 cycles are also limited! That means we are forcing variance to go in a circle as opposed to having long streaks of the same outcome.

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