I think I found something really interesting!!!

[huskerdu]

We know that the average outcome of chops is:
50% : Chops of one color
25% : Streak of two same colors
25% : Streak of three or more same colors

We can take advantage of this :
We bet on the change of color only after any previus change of color appears. If a chop of one color appears we win. If not, we bet again. If color changes we win and continue bettiing fornthe next change of color. If not we stop betting untill another change of color appears and bet again. So we avoid any kind of long streaksnof same color. Of course we lose the win that we might had after the end of the streak and the change of color  but it doesn't matter.

With this betting we have 1 Win in case of single chops , in case of streak of two colors we have 1 lose and 1 win and in case of a streak of 3+ same colors 2 loses.
Let's put them together based on statistics that I mentioned at the top of the post:
For example, in 200 outcomes we have:
100 one color chop = 100 wins
50 streaks of two same color = 50 loses and 50 wins
50 streaks of 3+ same color = 50X2= 100 loses.
Total:
150 wins
150 loses.

With Labouchere it can easily  be played,  as Labouchere for 150 loses needs 76 wins to be posiitive.  But we have 150 wins!

So far I haven't faced maximum betting more than 24 units starting with 1 unit and I keep  testing.

Ignatus I'd appreciate if you could test it on RX.
Thanks

[gizmotron2]

With Labouchere it can easily  be played,  as Labouchere for 150 loses needs 76 wins to be posiitive.  But we have 150 wins!

It still faces the same sequences of death that all progressions face. Just because you have a nice fiction of mathematical expectations, magical thinking, doesn't mean that randomness will not gang up on the progressions. Those percentages will still sequence badly right when you don't want them to. It's inevitable.

[ignatus]

"winrate" about 60%...well.lower wingoals perhaps another progression idk

anyways.

Here you go;

Code Select Expand

system "EC Singles"
// © ignatus 2020 ©

method "main"
begin
  while starting a new session
  begin
      put 0 to Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
       Set List [5,10,15,25,35,50,60,70,80,90,100,110,120,130,140,150,175,200,225,250,275,300,350,400,450,500]
       to Record "progression" Data

  end
       Copy List [Black] to Record "B" Layout
       Copy List [Red] to Record "R" Layout
       

  while on each spin
  begin
 
  if total bankroll >= 2000 each time
begin
stop session
end


if total bankroll <= -2000 each time
begin
stop session
end
 

  IF any outside bet lost each
  begin
   add 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
  end

  if any outside bet won each
       begin
       
       subtract 1 from Record "progression" Data Index
          if Record "progression" Data Index <= 0 each
          begin
             put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
          end
    {  clear Record "R" layout
      clear Record "B" layout
      clear Record "H" layout
      clear Record "L" layout
      }
// put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
      if Bankroll >= Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
    begin
        clear Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
        put 100% Bankroll to Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
        put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
    end

  end

IF Red has hit 1 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "B" Layout List
end

IF Black has hit 1 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "R" Layout List
end

{
IF Red has hit 2 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "R" Layout List
end

IF Black has hit 2 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "B" Layout List
end
}


If Record "progression" Data Index >
  Record "progression" Data Count
    Begin
      clear Record "R" layout
      clear Record "B" layout

      Put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index

    End
   

  end
END

[poluvolo]

labouchere  is a  cancellation money management
johnson progression is cancellation money management but much better than labouchere
about  even chances you have many  choices about money management
like full trio play  oscar grind  and many others
so most important is bet selection
if my friend your bet selection is nice then  i can post a money management except flat bet

[huskerdu]

"winrate" about 60%...well.lower wingoals perhaps another progression idk

Ignatus with all respect
You have made a mistake in the code:

{ IF Red has hit 2 time each begin Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "R" Layout List end IF Black has hit 2 time each begin Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "B" Layout List end  }

You have forgot to to put out the { and } before and after this code snipet.
And also please change : when Red has hit 2 times we bet on Black (not on Red as you wrote) and when Black has hit 2 times we bet on Red (not on black as you wrote)!
Run with your progresion and also run with   Fibonacci 1 â€" 2 â€" 3 â€" 5 â€" 8 â€" 13 â€" 21 â€" 34 â€" 55 â€" 89 â€" 144 â€" 233 â€" 377
Thanks a lot!

[ignatus]

ok the chart looks better now, with low wingoals perhaps and Max 200 spins, etc good 

Code Select Expand

system "EC Singles"
// © ignatus 2019 ©

method "main"
begin
  while starting a new session
  begin
      put 0 to Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
       Set List [1,2,3,5,13,21,32,55,89,133,233,377]
       to Record "progression" Data

  end
       Copy List [Black] to Record "B" Layout
       Copy List [Red] to Record "R" Layout
       

  while on each spin
  begin
 
  if total bankroll >= 2000 each time
begin
stop session
end


if total bankroll <= -2000 each time
begin
stop session
end
 

  IF any outside bet lost each
  begin
   add 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
  end

  if any outside bet won each
       begin
       
       subtract 1 from Record "progression" Data Index
          if Record "progression" Data Index <= 0 each
          begin
             put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
          end
    {  clear Record "R" layout
      clear Record "B" layout
      clear Record "H" layout
      clear Record "L" layout
      }
// put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
      if Bankroll >= Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
    begin
        clear Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
        put 100% Bankroll to Record "Highest Bankroll" Data
        put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index
    end

  end

IF Red has hit 1 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "B" Layout List
end

IF Black has hit 1 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "R" Layout List
end


IF Red has hit 2 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "B" Layout List
end

IF Black has hit 2 time each
begin
Put 100% of Record "progression" Data to Record "R" Layout List
end



If Record "progression" Data Index >
  Record "progression" Data Count
    Begin
      clear Record "R" layout
      clear Record "B" layout

      Put 1 on Record "progression" Data Index

    End
   

  end
END

[huskerdu]

Thanks Ignatius!!!

[CarpeDiem]

The optimal bet on a 0.5 probability scenario is 25% of the bankroll, a/p Kelly's formulae.

link:s://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

You can see some results in action here:

Assuming you have 100 USD as the initial BR, given 10 bets with an equal chance(5w and 5l) you would end up with a maximum final BR of 180 USD.

[6th-sense]

a couple of handy links..kelly calculator..and fractions to decimals ...would be interesting if anyone can join the two to work in sync...for quick reference...

link:s://:.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

link:s://researchmaniacs.com/Math/Fractions/What-Is-27/37-As-A-Decimal.html

[Richard Meisel]

The optimal bet on a 0.5 probability scenario is 25% of the bankroll, a/p Kelly's formulae.

link:s://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

You can see some results in action here:

Assuming you have 100 USD as the initial BR, given 10 bets with an equal chance(5w and 5l) you would end up with a maximum final BR of 180 USD.

Hi, "seize the day". Yes, the Kelly formula is X = pb-q/2 where p is the probability of Winning and q is the TRUE probability of Losing and b is the given odds. So if you have $100 on a 2 to 1 game you get x = (.5)(2)-(.5) all over 2, which gives you .5/2 = 1/4. So your first Bet is 25 and every bet 1/4 of the bankroll. BUT on a $5 minimum table after 6 consecutive Losses you would have to bet more than 1/4. Most bets and systems playing roulette will always have 8-20 consecutive Losses. There are many more progressive systems that seem better at Roulette than the Kelly. But thank you for your post. You seem like a nice guy and very intelligent. It took a long time for me to be a nice guy.

[Joe]

Using Kelly betting is pointless unless you have an edge, so I'm not sure why it's even being mentioned in this thread.

[cht]

Using Kelly betting is pointless unless you have an edge, so I'm not sure why it's even being mentioned in this thread.

Correct. People should learn the basic math else the same mistakes are repeated again and again(redundant).

[cht]

Probability and statistics don't work.

Recent CD probability thread don't work.

[Richard Meisel]

It's all a Guess. Even an educated Guess is still a Guess. It's either a 1/37 Guess or a 1/38 Guess. And guess what?, It's a Guess. It's all a Guess.

[Steve]

If you want more than a guess with random accuracy, correlate variables to spin outcomes. Then determine what variables matter, and how they correlate.