Out-Of-The-Box Look at Law of the Third

[chrisbis]

Fuzzy Logic has been well studied in the past, and although this might sound bonkers to some,
its found its way into the programming and response thinking of the major appliances we use in our every day life's.

Famously Bosch Washing Machine, uses Fuzzy Logixx in its coding.

Maybe some parallels we can draw inspiration from?

[chrisbis]

As in a Washing machine, when U have so many variables, so altered starting points and changes that occur along a give cycle (session as a parallel)
then the machine still only wants one "Best" outcome.

That what in essence we want in Roulette bets, the best possible outcome.

On the other face of the coin, the casino's want the diameterically opposite outcome for themselves.

Paws for thought as the cat said to the mouse one day??

[VLS]

This "Law" is just a mathematical curiosity guys.

As it runs throughout the game in the same proportion, for the sake of simplicity let's imagine the 3-number roulette Sam talked about with its 3-spin cycle:

Spin #1: All 3 options belong to the "Unhit" group. First outcome MUST be a new one.

Spin #2: 2 out of 3 options belong to the "unhit" group. It has 2 out of 3 chances NOT to repeat. Probability is fulfilled and more times it doesn't repeat, it's a new outcome. Second outcome.

Spin #3: 2 out of 3 options now belong to the "HIT" group. It has 2 chances to repeat. Probability is fulfilled and more times it repeats. The 1 option in the UNHIT group remains so.



There you go, for those who like to view it graphically, here it is, with the higher-probability group highlighted:

Spin #1:

1
0
0

Spin #2:

1
1
0

Spin #3:

1
1 1
0

Law of the third realized.

1 = one show.
11 = one repeater.
0 = one no show.

By simply following the expected.

Regards,
Victor

[VLS]

Fuzzy Logic has been well studied in the past, and although this might sound bonkers to some,
its found its way into the programming and response thinking of the major appliances we use in our every day life's.

Famously Bosch Washing Machine, uses Fuzzy Logixx in its coding.

Maybe some parallels we can draw inspiration from?

Ah Chris, my man, logic is fuzzy as long as everyone has his/her own 

Cheers!

[flukey luke]

Just tossing a few ideas around in my head and looking at the numbers I posted above.
In the first list, here is the sequence for the numbers.
1,2,3,4,5,6,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,13,13,14,15,15,16,17,17,18,19,19,20,20,21,21,21.

For the second list of numbers.

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,17,18,19,19,19,20,20,20,21,21,21,21.

In that last sample, there were only 3 new original numbers in the last 10 spins.
By using a few sets of different numbers, it may be possible to isolate some good trends.
One list might be continually repeating. Another list might be throwing up new original numbers every other spin. Looking for the strongest trend and riding it may be worth looking into.  Just an idea anyhow!  List 2 started with 17 original numbers one after the other but definately slowed down towards the end. List 1 after 17 numbers had already thrown up 3 repeats. After the 30 spins, they both ended up with 21/30 original numbers.

[flukey luke]

So now looking at the numbers I posted above, I am going to translate the 2 sets into their respective streets.

List 1.
9
4
7
12
10
6
4
2
4
10
8
1

There are 9 original streets here.

List 2.
3
4
2
4
6
2
12
10
8
12
11
3

There are 8 original streets here.

Using the first list, the sequence throws up 1,2,3,4,5,6,6,7,7,7,8,9.

The second list throws up the following sequence. 1,2,3,3,4,4,5,6,7,7,8,8.

[VLS]

Thanks for sharing the ideas Flukey!

LOL @ ElBarto! 

[chrisbis]

Have a luke at this Luke.

was Ur sample choice of numbers a random chance meeting, taken from a never ending stream of non-sequenial spun numbers....
[attach=#1]

or

a sample from a loop, that does eventually repeat, after thousands and millions of numbers have been returned?.....
[attach=#2]

Or is a spiral with intersections that do link up in some way?

[flukey luke]

That is certainly an interesting question Chris. (nice pics by the way  )
Because of time limits, even if some kind of order or structure existed, I was wondering how we could take advantage the way you propose it. That is why I always try and 'shrink' the game when designing my playing methods. I am trying to reduce the randomness and create an order that I can try and take advantage from. Like Victor says, we don't need to be perfect, just slightly more right than we are wrong.

[chrisbis]

We're thinking along the same lines then.

Could be twins- must have a word with my DAD,
to see if he ever went "visiting" in Wolverhampton? 

[VLS]

Regarding:



and



Wow, some good drawings there Chris

Do number sequences eventually repeat?

YES. and they do as expected according by math.

But beware! in order find the same exact 37-number cycle you will have to go through no less than this number of experienced spins:

[attachimg=#]

(and yes, that's 58 zeroes, a big BIG scary large number of spins to experience!! ):

:.google.com/search?q=37^37

...Chances are while our human life spawns we will always get what seem to be "new" or "fresh" numbers with such a large amount of possibilities before exhausting being within the range of possibility to repeat a cycle.

That isn't a workable path, believe me.

we don't need to be perfect, just slightly more right than we are wrong.

Now onto the good news!

By guessing more right than wrongs we are't changing the math probability of a number coming or not coming, that is static.

I recall Spike telling someting on the lines of a Wheather forecast not changing an iota the probability of the storm coming or not, those are two separate scenarios. The actual probability due to meteorological factors and the ratio of right/wrong in the appearance or not by the forecaster.

In theory both expected and predicted should match, the challenge being being more right than wrong.

For instance, a wheather forecaster with 80% accuracy influences nothing on the storm.

Somebody who develops a method which hits 53% on the even chances is not closing the wheel's pockets so the fixed probability per spin stay the same, only HIS rate is better, and that to him is undeniably and profitable. ...here's the hope and the math loophole.

While the theoretical is assumed to be correct "in the long run", there is the possibility that such a long term is so extensive than all the spins we get to experience in out life are considered a "short term" in comparison, and hence, the possibility remain that we end-up as winners in this "lifetime short-term"!

[chrisbis]

Our six  year old I told U about would tell U that the biggest number is called a ......GOOGLE.

Is it as many spins as that..........................I don't think so, and besides we can use a computer to find the similarities.
there was some new thinking on finding out new repeat numbers some time ago, think that's how the new type of bar-code came about, has millions of possible combinations!!

[hanshuckebein]

guys, have you read don's view of the law of the third published on his homepage?

link:://:.neworiginalthinking.com/DesMaking/law-of-the-third.html

cheers

hans

[XXVV]

It is great this debate has been re-activated and thanks to F/L and all for putting so much into it.

"Law"of the Third is a misnomer. There is no law, just an observed natural phenomenon which is a by product of randomness which some feel to be some sort of enemy of our work to profit from roulette.

This is not so. The true nature of roulette is to exhibit (sometimes brutal) random behaviour, yet this can express sometimes in what appears to be short orderly patterns that may exhibit symmetries or other characteristics to which we ascribe order.

I believe that it is fighting AGAINST the tide to attempt to bring too much order to roulette data in order to win from subsequent outcomes. We need to be somehow not too precise, not too pushy, more speculative ( borrowing terms from others you know).

Conversely by accepting the true nature of roulette, and by working WITH the tide, we may be able to more successfully and reliably catch the elusive winning bet.

Specifically, the most efficient bet will need to accommodate random outcomes with a set of rules to handle runs ( SAME), but also provisos to quickly adjust to chops (CHANGE).

This may start to sound familiar....

Having just heard how remote is the chance of repeating 37 outcomes, consider the following recent event recorded in Wiesbaden on table 7 on 6th October this year.

9
1
22
25
26
12
11
1
22
25
26
12
11
25
2

Once the outcome was cast what are the odds for a six number trace to be repeated.. calculated as prior?

It is noted this is an extreme event, as is 7 repeats of the same number, but it is surprisingly frequent that smaller 3-4 number traces/ threads recur and as per the matrix thread, may go aa to cc groups or some other short cluster combination. Outside of Probability Theory.

In the former, 22, 25 and 26 all were hot numbers for 100 spins but 26 manifested 18 times in 370 spins that autumn afternoon.

You could say the six line was hot, but it was within expectations as the neighbours were cool to these hots ( as is often the case) - on the felt and the wheel. It was a random event within random events.

The reference to "fuzzy logic" is particularly apt as it demonstrates here the overlapping influences of several tendencies, which sometimes can come into sharp focus and at most other times gives just sufficient energy to be accurate within a set range, but not too precise. The variables though can be identified sometimes although many may remain invisible if we are not looking.

These ideas may be helpful in setting the net with which to catch the winning bet watched by the cool calm and collecting roulette player with steely will and infinite patience.

Happy Days
XX V V