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Just an idea.

Started by blablablu, Dec 04, 04:11 PM 2010

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esoito

Just for interest...

I've been beta-testing my own analysis software.

Here's are two preliminary summary of skips (misses) for Dozen 1-12

For 1732 spins at W Hill's slingshot table:

SUMMARY OF SKIPS
TOTAL FOR SKIP  0: 173 (0 means it won on the next spin)
TOTAL FOR SKIP  1: 473 (1 means it won after 1 loss)
TOTAL FOR SKIP  2: 323
TOTAL FOR SKIP  3: 233
TOTAL FOR SKIP  4: 154
TOTAL FOR SKIP  5: 93
TOTAL FOR SKIP  6: 69
TOTAL FOR SKIP  7: 63
TOTAL FOR SKIP  8: 39
TOTAL FOR SKIP  9: 39
TOTAL FOR SKIP  10: 19
TOTAL FOR SKIP  11: 22
TOTAL FOR SKIP  12: 12
TOTAL FOR SKIP  13: 5
TOTAL FOR SKIP  14: 5
TOTAL FOR SKIP  15: 1
TOTAL FOR SKIP  16: 1
TOTAL FOR SKIP  17: 2
TOTAL FOR SKIP  18: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  19: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  20: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  21: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  22: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  23: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  24: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  25: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  26: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  27: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  28: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  29: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  30: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  31: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  32: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  33: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  34: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  35: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  36: 0


For 16 000 spins at DublinBet:

SUMMARY OF SKIPS
TOTAL FOR SKIP  0: 1629
TOTAL FOR SKIP  1: 4428
TOTAL FOR SKIP  2: 2988
TOTAL FOR SKIP  3: 2024
TOTAL FOR SKIP  4: 1426
TOTAL FOR SKIP  5: 966
TOTAL FOR SKIP  6: 701
TOTAL FOR SKIP  7: 456
TOTAL FOR SKIP  8: 359
TOTAL FOR SKIP  9: 359
TOTAL FOR SKIP  10: 183
TOTAL FOR SKIP  11: 153
TOTAL FOR SKIP  12: 116
TOTAL FOR SKIP  13: 104
TOTAL FOR SKIP  14: 99
TOTAL FOR SKIP  15: 79
TOTAL FOR SKIP  16: 69
TOTAL FOR SKIP  17: 56
TOTAL FOR SKIP  18: 54
TOTAL FOR SKIP  19: 42
TOTAL FOR SKIP  20: 22
TOTAL FOR SKIP  21: 17
TOTAL FOR SKIP  22: 16
TOTAL FOR SKIP  23: 9
TOTAL FOR SKIP  24: 4
TOTAL FOR SKIP  25: 2
TOTAL FOR SKIP  26: 2
TOTAL FOR SKIP  27: 2
TOTAL FOR SKIP  28: 3
TOTAL FOR SKIP  29: 1
TOTAL FOR SKIP  30: 1
TOTAL FOR SKIP  31: 2
TOTAL FOR SKIP  32: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  33: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  34: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  35: 0
TOTAL FOR SKIP  36: 0


Interesting similarity, hmmm?

And the results are pretty similar for the other two dozens.

chrisbis

Es, dear friend, can U put Ur last post into an understandable language please?

I didn't know there was 1-12 dozens, thought there was just the three?!?!?!?!?

And what is the analysis telling us by the way?

Quote
TOTAL FOR SKIP   0:  173  (0 MEANS IT WON ON THE NEXT SPIN)

What does all this mean please? Zero, what zero? or R these notes for the whole list?

Fripper

Quote from: chrisbis on Dec 05, 07:55 AM 2010
Es, dear friend, can you put your last post into an understandable language please?

I didn't know there was 1-12 dozens, thought there was just the three?!?!?!?!?

And what is the analysis telling us by the way?

What does all this mean please? Zero, what zero? or are these notes for the whole list?

"For dozen 1-12"

That means first dozen with numbers 1-12.

The analysis tells us how long the first dozen sleeps, am I right?
Skip = Sleep

This is how many times dozen 1 sleeps for example 5 times, or 10 times, or 30 times.
All i'm doing is living my life.

blablablu

good morning.


well if it skips that much, the we could say the idea wont work on a long run.

by the way  I was looking some progression , and +1 unit on win, and same bet size on losses works pretty until even or next high, then you reset to 1unit again.

maybe some stop-loss trigerr would help, like if LLL, then reset till win,  because only thing that can kill you is long strike of losses, 7 or more. . .

we know how many spins it can sleep, but we are betting against the winner, can someone make the test for how many winns ina a row for some dozen, or column.



chrisbis

Forgive my ignorance if I'm wrong, since I am not over familiar with
the PlusCoup progression, but isn't that sort/type of progression designed mainly for a single entity EC bet, such as RED/BLACK, or LOW/HIGH, or EVEN/ODD. (or even one dozen)

therefore, when you are staking 1+1 units on your chosen 2 dozens, and as reincarnation intermated to U, your going to double up instantly on your loses.
I know that Doz bets return 2:1 on the stake, but when you have lost, and then lost, with PlusCoup progression, and then win, which dozen are you going to rest?

The one dozen that won, or both of them?

Because your long term return on the double investment is eventually going to cancel itself out.

Just my opinion of course here folks.  :-X   I Have been know to get things wrong!!

blablablu

yeah it is designed, but chances of hitting the strike on EC are bigger then on 2to1. That was idea that wins and loses change more quickly.

I reset both dozens to 1unit, and then go around again. In progression i put +1unit on both dozens.

Sometimes zero bet is not working , so i think it should be canceled, unless you are on tables that hit it a lot, my tables don't.


chrisbis

Everyone will tell U that Zero has a 1 in 37 chance of hitting,

ie. just the same as any number on the wheel.

But with playing a system like Ur idea, Ur playing the felt table, not the wheel, so U have to cover it.

A different BR approach is poss better if U want to cover the Zero Green Goblin.  :thumbsup:

Something that is a division of the return stake on the Zero, that would always cover Ur "open" stake on Ur two dozens.

So If U had 1 unit on the zero, Ur risk stake bet on the dozen could initially start at 16 units on each. (32 total stake, covered by 36 return on investment from Zero)

Then raise Ur dozens stake bet with respect to the Zero bet>

2 units on Zero = (can go as high as-) 32 (or even as high as 35) units on each of the two dozen

3 units on Zero = (can go as high as-) 53 (the max possible) units on each of the two dozen

If the table limits/chip denominations are really low, like 0.10 or 0.25, then all these values will change- in Ur favour, and reduce the dozen exposure/risk right down in Ã,£$value.

reincarnation

Pluscoup progression or any normal progression for that matter will not work when you are betting on 2 dozens. As the dynamics of dozen bets are different. Only way to win on dozen bets is to triple your bets after every loss...but you will hit the table limits again.

warrior

Quote from: reincarnation on Dec 05, 11:08 AM 2010
Pluscoup progression or any normal progression for that matter will not work when you are betting on 2 dozens. As the dynamics of dozen bets are different. Only way to win on dozen bets is to triple your bets after every loss...but you will hit the table limits again.
hermes leveller is always  good.

blablablu


i know for the table limits in dozens, so i got the idea to make smaller progression but still getting out with profit.

Chrisbis:
that is some risky zero investment to me, i was thinking of maybe double bet size on zero after 36 spins, so when it come eventually so it could be some profit out of it.



chrisbis

It was a hypothetical idea for the Zero, just to show you the level of cover/insurance you might need, to be certain of a result when landing there, but not over exposing the total bet stake to the casino elements so2speak

Let me give you an example>

In nearly all EC betting systems I play,
and lets just say for the sake of this text
that I'm playing on a Low value table,
and It has chip denomination as low
as 0.10 unit
The, I'll place 0.10 chip on Zero (or Zero split,  or Zero 3number, or Zero corner)
then for my EC stake, I will place 2 units on each of my EC selections.
If playing 1 EC plan, I'm only losing an additional 0.10 on any loss,
........and giving away 0.025% of my return stake&winnings on a win (0.10/4)

If playing 2 or 3 0r 5 EC's then you can see the "give-away" is minimal, and the loss not to bad.

If zero hits during play-  I'm covered. And it always, always pays dividend for me!

I raise the Zero stake accordingly, as the game and any staking progression ensues.

Hope you get my idea,
.............................and this posts takes me over and past the magic number of posts(!!!)))!!))

blablablu


i get the idea about the zero, nice math.

i know that this is not the best system yet, but i like new things.

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