Sports Precognition

[zhone]

I just passed the mark of doubling the bankroll, at the surplus of 111.68%.

Bankroll now resets and aims again for 150% and 200% targets.

First target has been achieved, at the surplus of 156.1%.

[zhone]

Game 170

   Setka Cup MS (table tennis) between Vasyl Moshovkyi and Igor Kundeus, 1 hour from now.

   Predict -> Ihor Kundeus to win.

   M6, Rwv, T, Mtv, tfwv, hs; r

[zhone]

Game 170

   Setka Cup MS (table tennis) between Vasyl Moshovkyi and Igor Kundeus, 1 hour from now.

   Predict -> Ihor Kundeus to win.

   M6, Rwv, T, Mtv, tfwv, hs; r

Vasyl Moshovkyi won

[zhone]

Game 171

   Setka Cup MS (table tennis) between Victor Bereza and Vasily Kondratenko, 1 hour from now.

   Predict -> Vasyl Kondratenko to win.

   M6, Rwv, T, Mtv, Tfwv, hs; r

[zhone]

Game 171

   Setka Cup MS (table tennis) between Victor Bereza and Vasily Kondratenko, 1 hour from now.

   Predict -> Vasyl Kondratenko to win.

   M6, Rwv, T, Mtv, Tfwv, hs; r

Vasyl Kondratenko won

[Drazen]

No winner; player retired halfway.

Some bookies treat settled result regardless of retirement.

Cheers

[zhone]

Some bookies treat settled result regardless of retirement.

Cheers

Drazen, it's good to learn that not all bookies work the same way. It wasted 1.5 hours of my efforts.

How's your profit margin so far?

[zhone]

Game 172

   UEFA Euro Game (soccer) between Italy and Spain, 3 hours from now.

   Italy is handicapped -0.5. Italy will have to score 1 goal or more than her opponent in order to win.

   Option 1: Italy  to win
   Option 2: Spain to win

   Predict -> Option 2: Spain to win

   M6, Rwv, T, Mtv, Tfwv, hs; r

[Drazen]

Drazen, it's good to learn that not all bookies work the same way. It wasted 1.5 hours of my efforts.

How's your profit margin so far?

Hm.. Let me try to put this into a percentage.

So Betfair informed me that I am going to be charged with Premium Charges.

Now less than 0.5% of their most successful customers will incur Premium Charges. So less than half a percent. How cool is that?

Now the deal breaker is that Premium means 20% of profits instead of 5% as it was by now. I just won't have that. But luckily there might be ways around this as well 

So I am in the league of a very few. You are too, I assure you.

Once you establish your edge there is a mathematical formula to optimize your growth. It's called Kelly Criterion. Have you heard about it maybe?

Cheers

[zhone]

Game 172

   UEFA Euro Game (soccer) between Italy and Spain, 3 hours from now.

   Italy is handicapped -0.5. Italy will have to score 1 goal or more than her opponent in order to win.

   Option 1: Italy  to win
   Option 2: Spain to win

   Predict -> Option 2: Spain to win

   M6, Rwv, T, Mtv, Tfwv, hs; r

Outcome -> Option 2: Spain won

[zhone]

Hm.. Let me try to put this into a percentage.

So Betfair informed me that I am going to be charged with Premium Charges.

Now less than 0.5% of their most successful customers will incur Premium Charges. So less than half a percent. How cool is that?

Now the deal breaker is that Premium means 20% of profits instead of 5% as it was by now. I just won't have that. But luckily there might be ways around this as well 

So I am in the league of a very few. You are too, I assure you.

If I understand what this Premium Charge is about, it sounds to me that Betfair is discouraging your stay with them. Or, do I misunderstand the meaning of this additional surcharge? My question is, why would they care as they are making money from the commissions?

20% is a lot! My wagers are mostly at 14% disadvantage and I thought that was the max I should endure 

Once you establish your edge there is a mathematical formula to optimize your growth. It's called Kelly Criterion. Have you heard about it maybe?

Cheers

Thanks for the advice. Yes, mathematically I know it works as I ran hundreds of thousands of simulation to confirm it, just that I can't bear with its slowness in profiting  I am still weighing which bankroll management system that better suits my win rate.

[zhone]

Game 173

   TT Cup MS (table tennis) between Maksim Mikhailovich and Nazar Gaieviy, 1.5 hours from now.

   Predict -> Nazarii Haievyi to win

   M6, Rwv, T, Mtv, Tfbv, hs; l->r

[zhone]

Game 174

   Setka Cup MS (table tennis) between Viktor Kodolam and Oleg Gil, 0.5 hours from now.

   Predict -> Oleh Hil to win.

   M6, Rwv, T, Mtv, Tfbv, hs; l->r

[zhone]

Game 173

   TT Cup MS (table tennis) between Maksim Mikhailovich and Nazar Gaieviy, 1.5 hours from now.

   Predict -> Nazarii Haievyi to win

   M6, Rwv, T, Mtv, Tfbv, hs; l->r

Maksim Mikhailovich won

[zhone]

Game 174

   Setka Cup MS (table tennis) between Viktor Kodolam and Oleg Gil, 0.5 hours from now.

   Predict -> Oleh Hil to win.

   M6, Rwv, T, Mtv, Tfbv, hs; l->r

Viktor Kodola won