Sports Precognition

[zhone]

Game 175

   Setka Cup WS (table tennis) between Olena Nalisnikovska and Evgenia Sozonyuk, 1 hour from now.

   Predict -> Evgenia Sozonyuk to win.

   M7, Rwv, T, mt, Tf, hr; l->r

[zhone]

Game 175

   Setka Cup WS (table tennis) between Olena Nalisnikovska and Evgenia Sozonyuk, 1 hour from now.

   Predict -> Evgenia Sozonyuk to win.

   M7, Rwv, T, mt, Tf, hr; l->r

Olena Nalisnikovska won

[zhone]

Game 176

   UEFA Euro Game (soccer) between England and Denmark, 2.5 hours from now.

   England is handicapped -0.5. England will have to score 1 goal or more than her opponent in order to win.

   Option 1: England to win
   Option 2: Denmark to win

   Predict -> Option 2: Denmark to win

   M6, Rwv, T, Mtv, TF, hr; l->r

[RayManZ]

Game 176

   UEFA Euro Game (soccer) between England and Denmark, 2.5 hours from now.

   England is handicapped -0.5. England will have to score 1 goal or more than her opponent in order to win.

   Option 1: England to win
   Option 2: Denmark to win

   Predict -> Option 2: Denmark to win

   M6, Rwv, T, Mtv, TF, hr; l->r

Do you also track at what sport you're better? football or table tennis.

[zhone]

Game 177

   Russia Moscow Liga Pro (table tennis) between Sergey Nikulin and Ivan Moshkov, 0.5 hours from now.

   Predict -> Ivan Moshkov to win.

   M6, Rwv, T, Mtv, DTF, hr; l->r

[zhone]

Do you also track at what sport you're better? football or table tennis.

Actually I had no idea about any sports 3 weeks ago. I picked up some of the rules and terms so that I could experiment with real money. So I suppose such tracking will not help to improve my odds.

[zhone]

Game 177

   Russia Moscow Liga Pro (table tennis) between Sergey Nikulin and Ivan Moshkov, 0.5 hours from now.

   Predict -> Ivan Moshkov to win.

   M6, Rwv, T, Mtv, DTF, hr; l->r

Sergey Nikulin won

[Drazen]

If I understand what this Premium Charge is about, it sounds to me that Betfair is discouraging your stay with them. Or, do I misunderstand the meaning of this additional surcharge? My question is, why would they care as they are making money from the commissions?

20% is a lot! My wagers are mostly at 14% disadvantage and I thought that was the max I should endure 

Thanks for the advice. Yes, mathematically I know it works as I ran hundreds of thousands of simulation to confirm it, just that I can't bear with its slowness in profiting  I am still weighing which bankroll management system that better suits my win rate.

Of course. Logical question 

As I earlier said, you will find it very hard to be welcomed on any bookmaker once you starting being long-term successful.

I am banned on almost every reputable bookmaker out there. For example, you can see how that looks like on Bet365.

Where are you getting that 14% if I may ask? You should drop that. Pinnacle Sports has the lowest margin around, so if you can, go there by all means. Betfair is good to. You ll get plenty of money there before they start Premium charges.

You must be patient with your play. I am using Kelly criterion and can't say it gains slowly.

When you get some free time, would you mind explaining in more detail how you make your predictions? I am sure there are some of us interested.

Cheers

[zhone]

Game 178

   Setka Cup WS (table tennis) between Pavel Babenko and Vladimir Voronenkov, 1 hour from now.

   Predict -> Voronenkov Volodymyr to win.

   M6, Rwv, T, mtv, Tfwv, hs; l->r

[Person S]

Players are suspected of betting on surebets, which often win, and this is enough to ban the account. Perhaps there are professionals among the winners, but as far as I understand, the office security does not understand why the profit was made.

[zhone]

Game 176

   UEFA Euro Game (soccer) between England and Denmark, 2.5 hours from now.

   England is handicapped -0.5. England will have to score 1 goal or more than her opponent in order to win.

   Option 1: England to win
   Option 2: Denmark to win

   Predict -> Option 2: Denmark to win

   M6, Rwv, T, Mtv, TF, hr; l->r

Outcome -> Option 2: Denmark won

[zhone]

Game 178

   Setka Cup WS (table tennis) between Pavel Babenko and Vladimir Voronenkov, 1 hour from now.

   Predict -> Voronenkov Volodymyr to win.

   M6, Rwv, T, mtv, Tfwv, hs; l->r

Pavel Babenko won

[zhone]

Of course. Logical question 

As I earlier said, you will find it very hard to be welcomed on any bookmaker once you starting being long-term successful.

I am banned on almost every reputable bookmaker out there. For example, you can see how that looks like on Bet365.

If you have developed a winning formula like William Benter did, I am happy for your success. I wish I were as mathematically capable as you are.

Where are you getting that 14% if I may ask? You should drop that. Pinnacle Sports has the lowest margin around, so if you can, go there by all means. Betfair is good to. You ll get plenty of money there before they start Premium charges.

Thanks for the info, I will try Pinnacle Sports out when I have decided one day to venture into this field in professional calibre. The house edge on the other hand is also a good push for higher accuracy.

You must be patient with your play. I am using Kelly criterion and can't say it gains slowly.

How do you deploy Kelly Criterion on fluctuating EVs in sports betting? Do you mind to enlighten me?

When you get some free time, would you mind explaining in more detail how you make your predictions? I am sure there are some of us interested.

Nah, I will pass that. It is hard to explain the practice, feelings and conditions which until today I still miss from time to time. Distraction is the least I need now.

[zhone]

The bookie is under maintenance and locks away my fund. I will take a break for next 20 hours 

[zhone]

Players are suspected of betting on surebets, which often win, and this is enough to ban the account. Perhaps there are professionals among the winners, but as far as I understand, the office security does not understand why the profit was made.

Hi Person S, could you elaborate a bit on sure bets? Is it arbitrage betting?